AWK vs SPY Stock Comparison
Compare AWK and SPY across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between AWK and SPY?
SPY leads the current stock comparison as State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF, with the clearest separation coming from quality and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
American Water Works Company, Inc. vs State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF
SPY leads
SPY leads by 12 AIQ points, primarily on Quality and Risk Resilience, but the lead has narrowed from 22 points over 30 sessions.
Fragile: 2 of 4 evidence groups support SPY, its lead is narrowing, and its current signal state is conflicted.
American Water Works Company, Inc.
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors SPY over AWK, 60 versus 48 as of Sep 11, 2026. SPY's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality and risk resilience, while AWK holds the stronger momentum profile. SPY also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 2 of 4 covered evidence groups favor SPY today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: only 2 of 4 covered evidence groups agree. SPY lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 22 to 12 points over 30 sessions.
Compare American Water Works Company, Inc. and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare AWK and SPY against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Quality41 vs 84SPY +43
- Risk Resilience51 vs 89SPY +38
- Momentum69 vs 39AWK +30
- Value36 vs 39Even
2 of 4 evidence groups favor SPY. SPY’s edge is concentrated in quality and risk resilience; AWK keeps a meaningful momentum edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-10, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-09.
Largest factor move: Momentum +3
No new signals fired.
Largest factor move: Momentum -13
No new signals fired.
SPY's lead narrowed by 4 AIQ points in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — AWK and SPY both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality and risk resilience.
AWK (American Water Works Company, Inc.): the counter-case, on momentum — but at materially higher volatility, 20% against 8.5%.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
SPYSPY on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
EvenGrowth figures are not covered for both names.
Value
EvenThe two are level on Value.
Momentum
AWKAWK on the Momentum factor, by 30 points.
Lower downside
SPYSPY on Risk Resilience, by 38 points.
Analyst upside
EvenAnalyst targets are level or not covered for both names.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | AWK | SPY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | -1.3% | — | Level |
| Target dispersion | +19.1% | — | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | — | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 4 | — | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
2 of 4 covered evidence groups favor SPY. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | SPY | 48 vs 60 |
| Fundamentals | Not covered | Not covered |
| Valuation | Even | Value 36 vs 39 |
| Technicals | Even | Price vs 50-day 1.6% vs 0.8%; vs 200-day 6.2% vs 6.2% |
| Risk Resilience | SPY | Risk Resilience 51 vs 89 |
| Analyst expectations | Not covered | Not covered |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of AWK and SPY and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is wide at 12 points. (supports the conclusion holding)
- Only 2 of 4 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's advantage has been narrowing. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on SPY.
How the comparison changed
119 daily snapshots · May 4 – Sep 10SPY lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 22 to 12 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- SPY +12
- 48 vs 60
- 7 sessions ago
- SPY +15
- 49 vs 64
- 30 sessions ago
- SPY +22
- 47 vs 69
- 90 sessions ago
- SPY +9
- 50 vs 59
The lead has not changed hands in this window.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
5 bullish / 0 bearish / 1 neutral
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (2.94%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
3 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (6.24%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- 52-Week High Proximity — bullish, risk, long horizon (2.5%)
SPY leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price is down while the AIQ Score moved up 1 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price -1.54%, AIQ +1 points).
Price is up while the AIQ Score moved down 3 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price +0.85%, AIQ -3 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1AWK closes the Quality gap — currently 43 points behind, the largest single contributor to SPY's edge.
- 2AWK's Bollinger Band Squeeze turns directional — it is neutral today and would confirm a change in trend.
- 3SPY's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 3 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4The narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 10 points over 30 sessions, and a further 12-point move would eliminate SPY's advantage entirely.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
Split| Metric | AWK | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 12.3% | — |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 59.4% | — |
| Gross margin | 47.2% | — |
| Operating margin | 36.9% | — |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 10.2% | — |
| Debt to equity | 1.38 | — |
Performance
Split across windows| Metric | AWK | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 0.3% | -1% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | 3.6% | -1.9% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 10.6% | 4.5% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 4.1% | 12.1% |
| Year to date | 7.2% | 11.1% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -0.1% | 16.8% |
Technicals
Split| Metric | AWK | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 57.9 | 45.1 |
| ADX (14) | 15.4 | 12.3 |
| Price vs 50-day | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Price vs 200-day | 6.2% | 6.2% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 20% | 8.5% |
Risk
SPY is the more resilient| Metric | AWK | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.46 | 1 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.07 | 0.95 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.12 | 1.38 |
| Max drawdown | -16.7% | -9.1% |
| Current drawdown | -3.8% | -2.6% |
| Annualized volatility | 22.5% | 12.9% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -2.2% | -1.4% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, AWK or SPY?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, SPY is the stronger of the two as of Sep 11, 2026, scoring 60 against AWK's 48. The edge comes from quality and risk resilience. AWK is not without a case — it holds the better momentum profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is AWK or SPY the better buy right now?
SPY carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 11, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 2 of 4 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: only 2 of 4 covered evidence groups agree. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor SPY over AWK?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. SPY leads Quality by 43 points; SPY leads Risk Resilience by 38 points; AWK leads Momentum by 30 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, AWK or SPY?
Analyst price targets imply -1.3% upside for AWK and not covered for SPY. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, AWK or SPY?
Neither name separates on the peer-relative Value factor. The two are level on Value. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, AWK or SPY?
Growth figures are not covered for both names. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, AWK or SPY?
AWK on the Momentum factor, by 30 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, AWK or SPY?
SPY is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. SPY on Risk Resilience, by 38 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is AWK more profitable than SPY?
Margin data is not comparable for both names in the current snapshot.
Is SPY's lead over AWK getting stronger or weaker?
SPY lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 22 to 12 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 119 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-05-04 and 2026-09-10. The lead has not changed hands in that window.
What would change the AWK vs SPY verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: AWK closes the Quality gap — currently 43 points behind, the largest single contributor to SPY's edge; AWK's Bollinger Band Squeeze turns directional — it is neutral today and would confirm a change in trend; SPY's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 3 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; the narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 10 points over 30 sessions, and a further 12-point move would eliminate SPY's advantage entirely.
What do the current signals say about AWK and SPY?
AWK: 5 bullish / 0 bearish / 1 neutral. SPY: 3 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on AWK is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On SPY it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.