CARR vs TSM Stock Comparison
Carrier Global Corporation vs Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
TSM leads
TSM leads by 19 AIQ points, primarily on Quality and Momentum, but the lead has narrowed from 26 points over 30 sessions.
Competitive: 5 of 6 evidence groups support TSM, its lead is narrowing, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Carrier Global Corporation
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors TSM over CARR, 62 versus 43 as of Sep 5, 2026. TSM's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality and momentum, while CARR holds the stronger value profile. TSM also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 5 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TSM today, and the comparison is rated Competitive on stability: the leader's advantage has been narrowing. TSM lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 26 to 19 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Carrier Global Corporation and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Compare CARR and TSM against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Quality30%36 vs 96TSM +60
- Value30%59 vs 42CARR +17
- Momentum25%25 vs 42TSM +17
- Risk Resilience15%57 vs 69TSM +12
5 of 6 evidence groups favor TSM. TSM’s edge is concentrated in quality and momentum; CARR keeps a meaningful value edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-04, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-03.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
TSM's lead was unchanged in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — CARR and TSM both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality and momentum.
CARR (Carrier Global Corporation): the counter-case, on value, valuation.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
TSMTSM on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value at 30% each.
Growth
CARRCARR on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
CARRCARR on the peer-relative Value factor, by 17 points.
Momentum
TSMTSM on the Momentum factor, by 17 points.
Lower downside
TSMTSM on Risk Resilience, by 12 points.
Analyst upside
TSMTSM on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | CARR | TSM | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +25.3% | +35.1% | TSM has more room |
| Target dispersion | +24.1% | +38% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 4 | 6 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
5 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TSM. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | TSM | 43 vs 62 |
| Fundamentals | TSMon balance | revenue growth 18.9% vs 12%; EPS growth 106.9% vs 22.1%; TTM ROE 8.9% vs 39.3%; gross margin 24.3% vs 64.2%; operating margin 7.1% vs 56% — TSM takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | CARR | Value 59 vs 42 |
| Technicals | TSM | Price vs 50-day -8.2% vs 2%; vs 200-day -3.7% vs 12.1% |
| Risk Resilience | TSM | Risk Resilience 57 vs 69 |
| Analyst expectations | TSM | Target upside 25.3% vs 35.1% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of CARR and TSM and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The two are close enough that your objective, not the score, should decide.
- The AIQ gap is wide at 19 points. (supports the conclusion holding)
- 5 of 6 covered evidence groups point the same way. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader's advantage has been narrowing. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on TSM.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Apr 23 – Sep 4TSM lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 26 to 19 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- TSM +19
- 43 vs 62
- 7 sessions ago
- TSM +20
- 42 vs 62
- 30 sessions ago
- TSM +26
- 44 vs 70
- 90 sessions ago
- TSM +12
- 53 vs 65
The lead has not changed hands in this window.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
2 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (6.04%)
- RSI Oversold - Potential Bounce — bullish, momentum, short horizon
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (13.02%)
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
TSM leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +1.07%, AIQ 0 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +2.85%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1CARR closes the Quality gap — currently 60 points behind, the largest single contributor to TSM's edge.
- 2CARR's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it.
- 3TSM's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4The narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 7 points over 30 sessions, and a further 19-point move would eliminate TSM's advantage entirely.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
TSM leads on balance| Metric | CARR | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 18.9% | 12% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 106.9% | 22.1% |
| Gross margin | 24.3% | 64.2% |
| Operating margin | 7.1% | 56% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 8.9% | 39.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.94 | 0.15 |
Performance
TSM leads 5 of 6 windows| Metric | CARR | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 0.4% | -2.4% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -7.6% | -0.3% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -13.8% | -4.8% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -2.2% | 17.8% |
| Year to date | 11.8% | 37.2% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -7% | 82.6% |
Technicals
TSM has the stronger structure| Metric | CARR | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 28.1 | 43.6 |
| ADX (14) | 32.7 | 7.6 |
| Price vs 50-day | -8.2% | 2% |
| Price vs 200-day | -3.7% | 12.1% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 17.7% | 24.3% |
Risk
TSM is the more resilient| Metric | CARR | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.26 | 2.18 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.09 | 1.57 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.13 | 2.52 |
| Max drawdown | -24.7% | -21.6% |
| Current drawdown | -22.3% | -12.7% |
| Annualized volatility | 35.6% | 40.4% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -3.2% | -4.1% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, CARR or TSM?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, TSM is the stronger of the two as of Sep 5, 2026, scoring 62 against CARR's 43. The edge comes from quality and momentum. CARR is not without a case — it holds the better value profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is CARR or TSM the better buy right now?
TSM carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 5, 2026, and the comparison is rated Competitive — 5 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Competitive rating means the two are close enough that your objective, not the score, should decide.
Why does the AIQ Score favor TSM over CARR?
The composite weights Quality at 30%, Value at 30%, Momentum at 25% and Risk Resilience at 15%. TSM leads Quality by 60 points; CARR leads Value by 17 points; TSM leads Momentum by 17 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, CARR or TSM?
Analyst price targets imply +25.3% upside for CARR and +35.1% for TSM, so the Street currently favors TSM. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, CARR or TSM?
CARR is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. CARR on the peer-relative Value factor, by 17 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, CARR or TSM?
CARR on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, CARR or TSM?
TSM on the Momentum factor, by 17 points. Momentum carries 25% of the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, CARR or TSM?
TSM is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. TSM on Risk Resilience, by 12 points. The Risk Resilience factor weights 15% of the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is CARR more profitable than TSM?
TSM leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 24.3% vs 64.2%; operating margin 7.1% vs 56%; ttm roe 8.9% vs 39.3%.
Is TSM's lead over CARR getting stronger or weaker?
TSM lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 26 to 19 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-04-23 and 2026-09-04. The lead has not changed hands in that window.
What would change the CARR vs TSM verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: CARR closes the Quality gap — currently 60 points behind, the largest single contributor to TSM's edge; CARR's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it; TSM's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; the narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 7 points over 30 sessions, and a further 19-point move would eliminate TSM's advantage entirely.
What do the current signals say about CARR and TSM?
CARR: 2 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. TSM: 1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on CARR is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On TSM it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare CARR and TSM with others
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality (30%), Value (30%), Momentum (25%) and Risk (15%). Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.