CIFR vs TSM Stock Comparison
TSM currently leads CIFR in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 58 vs 20. The clearest difference is quality.
What is the main difference between CIFR and TSM?
TSM leads the current stock comparison as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, with the clearest separation coming from quality and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Cipher Mining Inc. vs Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
TSM leads
TSM leads by 38 AIQ points, primarily on Quality and Risk Resilience, but the lead has narrowed from 48 points over 30 sessions. Wall Street currently favors CIFR on target upside.
Competitive: 5 of 6 evidence groups support TSM, its lead is narrowing, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Cipher Mining Inc.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors TSM over CIFR, 58 versus 20 as of Oct 21, 2026. TSM's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality and risk resilience. TSM also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors CIFR. 5 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TSM today, and the comparison is rated Competitive on stability: the leader's advantage has been narrowing. TSM lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 48 to 38 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Cipher Mining Inc. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare CIFR and TSM against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Quality0 vs 98TSM +98
- Risk Resilience25 vs 67TSM +42
- Value34 vs 45TSM +11
- Momentum24 vs 21Even
5 of 6 evidence groups favor TSM. TSM’s edge is concentrated in quality and risk resilience.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
No factor moved materially.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 7 active signals are unchanged.
Largest factor move: Momentum +3
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 2 active signals are unchanged.
TSM's lead widened by 1 AIQ point in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — CIFR and TSM both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality and risk resilience.
CIFR (Cipher Mining Inc.): the counter-case, on analyst expectations — but at materially higher volatility, 72.1% against 28.8%.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
TSMTSM on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
TSMTSM on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
TSMTSM on the peer-relative Value factor, by 11 points.
Momentum
EvenThe two are level on Momentum.
Lower downside
TSMTSM on Risk Resilience, by 42 points.
Analyst upside
CIFRCIFR on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors TSM, analyst targets favor CIFR. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | CIFR | TSM | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +298% | +36.4% | CIFR has more room |
| Target dispersion | +99.1% | +34% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 9 | 7 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
5 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TSM. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | TSM | 20 vs 58 |
| Fundamentals | TSM | revenue growth -28.7% vs 17.6%; EPS growth -132.1% vs 8%; TTM ROE -156.3% vs 41.2%; gross margin -20% vs 65.8%; operating margin -202.9% vs 57.9% |
| Valuation | TSM | Value 34 vs 45 |
| Technicals | TSM | Price vs 50-day -41.5% vs -0.6%; vs 200-day -50.7% vs 7.3% |
| Risk Resilience | TSM | Risk Resilience 25 vs 67 |
| Analyst expectations | CIFR | Target upside 298% vs 36.4% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of CIFR and TSM and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The two are close enough that your objective, not the score, should decide.
- The AIQ gap is wide at 38 points. (supports the conclusion holding)
- 5 of 6 covered evidence groups point the same way. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader's advantage has been narrowing. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on TSM.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20TSM lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 48 to 38 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- TSM +38
- 20 vs 58
- 7 sessions ago
- TSM +36
- 20 vs 56
- 30 sessions ago
- TSM +48
- 24 vs 72
- 90 sessions ago
- TSM +37
- 34 vs 71
The lead has not changed hands in this window.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 5 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only CIFR
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (16.10%)
- ATR Expansion - Breakout Mode — neutral, volatility, short horizon (14.11%)
- Keltner Channel Breakdown — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Oversold - Potential Bounce — bullish, momentum, short horizon
- 52-Week Low Proximity — bearish, risk, long horizon (0.0%)
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
Only TSM
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (9.68%)
Both carry 1 more signal that do not separate them: MACD Bearish Crossover.
TSM leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +2.82%, AIQ 0 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +1.6%, AIQ +1 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1CIFR closes the Quality gap — currently 98 points behind, the largest single contributor to TSM's edge.
- 2CIFR's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3TSM's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4The narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 10 points over 30 sessions, and a further 38-point move would eliminate TSM's advantage entirely.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
TSM leads on balance| Metric | CIFR | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -28.7% | 17.6% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -132.1% | 8% |
| Gross margin | -20% | 65.8% |
| Operating margin | -202.9% | 57.9% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | -156.3% | 41.2% |
| Debt to equity | 9.94 | 0.14 |
Performance
TSM leads 6 of 6 windows| Metric | CIFR | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -21.7% | -4.5% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -41.9% | -6% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -50.8% | 0.9% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -50.8% | 15.5% |
| Year to date | -32.6% | 39.9% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -52.6% | 41.8% |
Technicals
TSM has the stronger structure| Metric | CIFR | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 5 | 36.7 |
| ADX (14) | 28.8 | 21.6 |
| Price vs 50-day | -41.5% | -0.6% |
| Price vs 200-day | -50.7% | 7.3% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 72.1% | 28.8% |
Risk
TSM is the more resilient| Metric | CIFR | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 4.07 | 2.11 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.15 | 1.04 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.28 | 1.66 |
| Max drawdown | -69.6% | -21.6% |
| Current drawdown | -69.6% | -12.5% |
| Annualized volatility | 113% | 38.9% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -10.9% | -3.8% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, CIFR or TSM?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, TSM is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 58 against CIFR's 20. The edge comes from quality and risk resilience. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is CIFR or TSM the better buy right now?
TSM carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Competitive — 5 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Competitive rating means the two are close enough that your objective, not the score, should decide.
Why does the AIQ Score favor TSM over CIFR?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. TSM leads Quality by 98 points; TSM leads Risk Resilience by 42 points; TSM leads Value by 11 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, CIFR or TSM?
Analyst price targets imply +298% upside for CIFR and +36.4% for TSM, so the Street currently favors CIFR. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors TSM. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, CIFR or TSM?
TSM is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. TSM on the peer-relative Value factor, by 11 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, CIFR or TSM?
TSM on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, CIFR or TSM?
The two are level on Momentum. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, CIFR or TSM?
TSM is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. TSM on Risk Resilience, by 42 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is CIFR more profitable than TSM?
TSM leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin -20% vs 65.8%; operating margin -202.9% vs 57.9%; ttm roe -156.3% vs 41.2%.
Is TSM's lead over CIFR getting stronger or weaker?
TSM lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 48 to 38 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has not changed hands in that window.
What would change the CIFR vs TSM verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: CIFR closes the Quality gap — currently 98 points behind, the largest single contributor to TSM's edge; CIFR's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; TSM's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; the narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 10 points over 30 sessions, and a further 38-point move would eliminate TSM's advantage entirely.
What do the current signals say about CIFR and TSM?
CIFR: 1 bullish / 5 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. TSM: 1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on CIFR is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On TSM it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare CIFR and TSM with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.