CME vs TSM Stock Comparison
TSM currently leads CME in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 66 vs 57. The clearest difference is quality, while CME has the stronger momentum profile.
What is the main difference between CME and TSM?
TSM leads the current stock comparison as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, with the clearest separation coming from quality and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
CME Group Inc. vs Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
TSM leads
TSM leads by 9 AIQ points, primarily on Quality and Value, but the lead has narrowed from 25 points over 30 sessions.
Fragile: 5 of 6 evidence groups support TSM, its lead is narrowing, and its current signal state is conflicted.
CME Group Inc.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors TSM over CME, 66 versus 57 as of Oct 31, 2026. TSM's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality and value, while CME holds the stronger momentum profile. TSM also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 5 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TSM today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the leader's advantage has been narrowing. TSM lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 25 to 9 points over 30 sessions.
Compare CME Group Inc. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare CME and TSM against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum78 vs 52CME +26
- Quality74 vs 98TSM +24
- Value25 vs 45TSM +20
- Risk Resilience53 vs 65TSM +12
5 of 6 evidence groups favor TSM. TSM’s edge is concentrated in quality and value; CME keeps a meaningful momentum edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-28, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-27.
Largest factor move: Momentum -6
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 3 active signals are unchanged.
Largest factor move: Momentum +10
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 3 active signals are unchanged.
TSM's lead widened by 5 AIQ points in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — CME and TSM both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality and value.
CME (CME Group Inc.): the counter-case, on momentum, technicals.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
TSMTSM on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
TSMTSM on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
TSMTSM on the peer-relative Value factor, by 20 points.
Momentum
CMECME on the Momentum factor, by 26 points.
Lower downside
TSMTSM on Risk Resilience, by 12 points.
Analyst upside
TSMTSM on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | CME | TSM | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +3.8% | +45% | TSM has more room |
| Target dispersion | +34% | +34% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 8 | 7 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Dividend growth
| Dividend metric | CME | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| 5Y dividend CAGR | 8.02% | 15.29% |
| 2020 regular DPS | $3.400 | $1.360 |
| 2025 regular DPS | $5.000 | $2.769 |
| Years increased | 5 | 4 |
| No cut in window | Yes | No (1) |
| Cohort rank | not ranked | not ranked |
TSM grew its split-adjusted regular dividend faster over 2020–2025 — 15.29% a year against CME's 8.02%. CME never reduced its regular dividend in the window; TSM did in 1 year.
Yield and payout ratio shown elsewhere on this page are current values, not part of the study window.
Split-adjusted regular dividends per share, 2020–2025, excluding special dividends. Research as of Sep 19, 2026.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
5 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TSM. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | TSM | 57 vs 66 |
| Fundamentals | TSMon balance | revenue growth 1.8% vs 17.6%; EPS growth 1.4% vs 8%; TTM ROE 16.2% vs 41.2%; gross margin 84.3% vs 65.8%; operating margin 65.7% vs 57.9% — TSM takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | TSM | Value 25 vs 45 |
| Technicals | CME | Price vs 50-day 8.6% vs -6.6%; vs 200-day 5% vs 10.1% |
| Risk Resilience | TSM | Risk Resilience 53 vs 65 |
| Analyst expectations | TSM | Target upside 3.8% vs 45% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of CME and TSM and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 9 points.
- 5 of 6 covered evidence groups point the same way. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader's advantage has been narrowing. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has swung materially session to session. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on TSM.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 29 – Oct 28TSM lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 25 to 9 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- TSM +9
- 57 vs 66
- 7 sessions ago
- CME +4
- 61 vs 57
- 30 sessions ago
- TSM +25
- 49 vs 74
- 90 sessions ago
- TSM +3
- 59 vs 62
The lead changed hands 6 times in this window, most recently on Oct 27 when TSM moved ahead of CME.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
2 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
Only CME
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (0.29%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
2 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
Only TSM
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (8.88%)
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
TSM leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price is up while the AIQ Score moved down 2 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price +2.27%, AIQ -2 points).
Price is down while the AIQ Score moved up 3 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price -5.95%, AIQ +3 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1CME closes the Quality gap — currently 24 points behind, the largest single contributor to TSM's edge.
- 2CME's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3TSM's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 2 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4The narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 16 points over 30 sessions, and a further 9-point move would eliminate TSM's advantage entirely.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
TSM leads on balance| Metric | CME | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 1.8% | 17.6% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 1.4% | 8% |
| Gross margin | 84.3% | 65.8% |
| Operating margin | 65.7% | 57.9% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 16.2% | 41.2% |
| Debt to equity | 0.13 | 0.14 |
Performance
TSM leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | CME | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -0.6% | 1.8% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | 12.2% | -3.7% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 10% | 9% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 2.4% | 11.6% |
| Year to date | 7.7% | 44.6% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 9.1% | 49% |
Technicals
CME has the stronger structure| Metric | CME | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 66.1 | 41.8 |
| ADX (14) | 30.6 | 19.9 |
| Price vs 50-day | 8.6% | -6.6% |
| Price vs 200-day | 5% | 10.1% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 27.6% | 35.7% |
Risk
TSM is the more resilient| Metric | CME | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.36 | 2.14 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.37 | 1.06 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.51 | 1.68 |
| Max drawdown | -33% | -21.6% |
| Current drawdown | -9.9% | -9.5% |
| Annualized volatility | 25.1% | 39.2% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -2.9% | -4.1% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, CME or TSM?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, TSM is the stronger of the two as of Oct 31, 2026, scoring 66 against CME's 57. The edge comes from quality and value. CME is not without a case — it holds the better momentum profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is CME or TSM the better buy right now?
TSM carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 31, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 5 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the leader's advantage has been narrowing. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor TSM over CME?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. CME leads Momentum by 26 points; TSM leads Quality by 24 points; TSM leads Value by 20 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, CME or TSM?
Analyst price targets imply +3.8% upside for CME and +45% for TSM, so the Street currently favors TSM. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, CME or TSM?
TSM is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. TSM on the peer-relative Value factor, by 20 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, CME or TSM?
TSM on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, CME or TSM?
CME on the Momentum factor, by 26 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, CME or TSM?
TSM is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. TSM on Risk Resilience, by 12 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is CME more profitable than TSM?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 84.3% vs 65.8%; operating margin 65.7% vs 57.9%; ttm roe 16.2% vs 41.2%. CME leads on two measures and TSM on one measure, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is TSM's lead over CME getting stronger or weaker?
TSM lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 25 to 9 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-29 and 2026-10-28. The lead has changed hands 6 times in that window, most recently on 2026-10-27, when TSM moved ahead of CME.
What would change the CME vs TSM verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: CME closes the Quality gap — currently 24 points behind, the largest single contributor to TSM's edge; CME's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; TSM's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 2 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; the narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 16 points over 30 sessions, and a further 9-point move would eliminate TSM's advantage entirely.
What do the current signals say about CME and TSM?
CME: 2 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. TSM: 2 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on CME is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On TSM it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
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How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.