TSM vs CVX Stock Comparison
CVX currently leads TSM in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 59 vs 58. The clearest difference is momentum, while TSM has the stronger quality profile.
What is the main difference between TSM and CVX?
CVX leads the current stock comparison as Chevron Corporation, with the clearest separation coming from momentum and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited vs Chevron Corporation
CVX leads
CVX leads by 1 AIQ points, primarily on Momentum, having only recently taken the lead back from TSM. Wall Street currently favors TSM on target upside.
Fragile: 1 of 6 evidence groups support CVX, the lead recently changed hands, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
Chevron Corporation
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors CVX over TSM, 59 versus 58 as of Oct 21, 2026. CVX's advantage is driven primarily by stronger momentum, while TSM holds the stronger quality profile. CVX also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors TSM. 1 of 6 covered evidence groups favor CVX today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 1 points. CVX lead: Reversed — TSM led by 23 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; CVX now leads by 1.
Compare Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited and Chevron Corporation across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare TSM and CVX against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum21 vs 84CVX +63
- Quality98 vs 52TSM +46
- Risk Resilience67 vs 63TSM +4
- Value45 vs 42Even
1 of 6 evidence groups favor CVX. CVX’s edge is concentrated in momentum; TSM keeps a meaningful quality edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum +3
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 2 active signals are unchanged.
No factor moved materially.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 7 active signals are unchanged.
CVX's lead narrowed by 1 AIQ point in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — TSM and CVX both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
CVX (Chevron Corporation): the stronger current systematic profile, led by momentum.
TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited): the counter-case, on quality, risk resilience, fundamentals — but at materially higher volatility, 28.8% against 19.3%.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
CVXCVX on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
CVXCVX on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
EvenThe two are level on Value.
Momentum
CVXCVX on the Momentum factor, by 63 points.
Lower downside
TSMTSM on Risk Resilience, by 4 points.
Analyst upside
TSMTSM on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors CVX, analyst targets favor TSM. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | TSM | CVX | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +36.4% | -4.8% | TSM has more room |
| Target dispersion | +34% | +74.1% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 7 | 12 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Dividend growth
| Dividend metric | TSM | CVX |
|---|---|---|
| 5Y dividend CAGR | 15.29% | 5.80% |
| 2020 regular DPS | $1.360 | $5.160 |
| 2025 regular DPS | $2.769 | $6.840 |
| Years increased | 4 | 5 |
| No cut in window | No (1) | Yes |
| Cohort rank | not ranked | #219 |
TSM grew its split-adjusted regular dividend faster over 2020–2025 — 15.29% a year against CVX's 5.80%. CVX never reduced its regular dividend in the window; TSM did in 1 year.
Yield and payout ratio shown elsewhere on this page are current values, not part of the study window.
Split-adjusted regular dividends per share, 2020–2025, excluding special dividends. Research as of Sep 19, 2026.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
1 of 6 covered evidence groups favor CVX. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | Even | 58 vs 59 |
| Fundamentals | TSMon balance | revenue growth 17.6% vs 41.3%; EPS growth 8% vs 4.5%; TTM ROE 41.2% vs 11%; gross margin 65.8% vs 31%; operating margin 57.9% vs 15.8% — TSM takes 4 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | Even | Value 45 vs 42 |
| Technicals | CVX | Price vs 50-day -0.6% vs 8.8%; vs 200-day 7.3% vs 18.4% |
| Risk Resilience | TSM | Risk Resilience 67 vs 63 |
| Analyst expectations | TSM | Target upside 36.4% vs -4.8% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of TSM and CVX and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 1 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 1 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has swung materially session to session. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Analyst targets on the leader are widely dispersed. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on CVX.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20CVX lead: Reversed — TSM led by 23 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; CVX now leads by 1.
- Today
- CVX +1
- 58 vs 59
- 7 sessions ago
- CVX +2
- 56 vs 58
- 30 sessions ago
- TSM +23
- 72 vs 49
- 90 sessions ago
- TSM +16
- 71 vs 55
The lead changed hands 2 times in this window, most recently on Jul 30 when TSM moved ahead of CVX.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
Only TSM
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
6 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
Only CVX
- Keltner Channel Breakout — bullish, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Overbought — bearish, momentum, short horizon
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- 52-Week High Proximity — bullish, risk, long horizon (0.0%)
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
Both carry 1 more signal that do not separate them: Golden Cross Active.
CVX leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +1.6%, AIQ +1 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +0.47%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1TSM closes the Momentum gap — currently 63 points behind, the largest single contributor to CVX's edge.
- 2TSM's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it.
- 3CVX's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 6 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
TSM leads on balance| Metric | TSM | CVX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 17.6% | 41.3% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 8% | 4.5% |
| Gross margin | 65.8% | 31% |
| Operating margin | 57.9% | 15.8% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 41.2% | 11% |
| Debt to equity | 0.14 | 0.2 |
Performance
CVX leads 6 of 6 windows| Metric | TSM | CVX |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -4.5% | 3.7% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -6% | 11.5% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 0.9% | 17% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 15.5% | 21.4% |
| Year to date | 39.9% | 45.5% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 41.8% | 48.8% |
Technicals
CVX has the stronger structure| Metric | TSM | CVX |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 36.7 | 81.3 |
| ADX (14) | 21.6 | 24.6 |
| Price vs 50-day | -0.6% | 8.8% |
| Price vs 200-day | 7.3% | 18.4% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 28.8% | 19.3% |
Risk
TSM is the more resilient| Metric | TSM | CVX |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.11 | -0.6 |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.04 | 1.58 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.66 | 2.35 |
| Max drawdown | -21.6% | -21.5% |
| Current drawdown | -12.5% | 0% |
| Annualized volatility | 38.9% | 24.1% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -3.8% | -2.3% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, TSM or CVX?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, CVX is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 59 against TSM's 58. The edge comes from momentum. TSM is not without a case — it holds the better quality profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is TSM or CVX the better buy right now?
CVX carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 1 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 1 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor CVX over TSM?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. CVX leads Momentum by 63 points; TSM leads Quality by 46 points; TSM leads Risk Resilience by 4 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, TSM or CVX?
Analyst price targets imply +36.4% upside for TSM and -4.8% for CVX, so the Street currently favors TSM. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors CVX. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, TSM or CVX?
Neither name separates on the peer-relative Value factor. The two are level on Value. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, TSM or CVX?
CVX on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, TSM or CVX?
CVX on the Momentum factor, by 63 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, TSM or CVX?
TSM is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. TSM on Risk Resilience, by 4 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is TSM more profitable than CVX?
TSM leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 65.8% vs 31%; operating margin 57.9% vs 15.8%; ttm roe 41.2% vs 11%.
Is CVX's lead over TSM getting stronger or weaker?
CVX lead: Reversed — TSM led by 23 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; CVX now leads by 1. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has changed hands 2 times in that window, most recently on 2026-07-30, when TSM moved ahead of CVX.
What would change the TSM vs CVX verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: TSM closes the Momentum gap — currently 63 points behind, the largest single contributor to CVX's edge; TSM's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it; CVX's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 6 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about TSM and CVX?
TSM: 1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. CVX: 6 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on TSM is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On CVX it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare TSM and CVX with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.