TSM vs LLY Stock Comparison
LLY currently leads TSM in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 62 vs 58. The clearest difference is momentum, while TSM has the stronger quality profile.
What is the main difference between TSM and LLY?
LLY leads the current stock comparison as Eli Lilly and Company, with the clearest separation coming from momentum and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited vs Eli Lilly and Company
LLY leads
LLY leads by 4 AIQ points, primarily on Momentum, having only recently taken the lead back from TSM. Wall Street currently favors TSM on target upside.
Fragile: 2 of 6 evidence groups support LLY, the lead recently changed hands, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
Eli Lilly and Company
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors LLY over TSM, 62 versus 58 as of Oct 21, 2026. LLY's advantage is driven primarily by stronger momentum, while TSM holds the stronger quality profile. LLY also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors TSM. 2 of 6 covered evidence groups favor LLY today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 4 points. LLY lead: Reversed — TSM led by 9 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; LLY now leads by 4.
Compare Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited and Eli Lilly and Company across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare TSM and LLY against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum21 vs 95LLY +74
- Quality98 vs 76TSM +22
- Value45 vs 26TSM +19
- Risk Resilience67 vs 50TSM +17
2 of 6 evidence groups favor LLY. LLY’s edge is concentrated in momentum; TSM keeps a meaningful quality edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum +3
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 2 active signals are unchanged.
Largest factor move: Momentum +7
New signals
- BB Upper Band Breach — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- Keltner Channel Breakout — bullish, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Overbought — bearish, momentum, short horizon
LLY's lead widened by 1 AIQ point in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — TSM and LLY both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
LLY (Eli Lilly and Company): the stronger current systematic profile, led by momentum.
TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited): the counter-case, on quality, value, risk resilience.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
LLYLLY on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
TSMTSM on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
TSMTSM on the peer-relative Value factor, by 19 points.
Momentum
LLYLLY on the Momentum factor, by 74 points.
Lower downside
TSMTSM on Risk Resilience, by 17 points.
Analyst upside
TSMTSM on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors LLY, analyst targets favor TSM. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | TSM | LLY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +36.4% | +4.5% | TSM has more room |
| Target dispersion | +34% | +42.2% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 7 | 15 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Dividend growth
| Dividend metric | TSM | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| 5Y dividend CAGR | 15.29% | 15.18% |
| 2020 regular DPS | $1.360 | $2.960 |
| 2025 regular DPS | $2.769 | $6.000 |
| Years increased | 4 | 5 |
| No cut in window | No (1) | Yes |
| Cohort rank | not ranked | #34 |
TSM grew its split-adjusted regular dividend faster over 2020–2025 — 15.29% a year against LLY's 15.18%. LLY never reduced its regular dividend in the window; TSM did in 1 year.
Yield and payout ratio shown elsewhere on this page are current values, not part of the study window.
Split-adjusted regular dividends per share, 2020–2025, excluding special dividends. Research as of Sep 19, 2026.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
2 of 6 covered evidence groups favor LLY. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | LLY | 58 vs 62 |
| Fundamentals | TSMon balance | revenue growth 17.6% vs 16%; EPS growth 8% vs -3.9%; TTM ROE 41.2% vs 92.6%; gross margin 65.8% vs 84%; operating margin 57.9% vs 43.9% — TSM takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | TSM | Value 45 vs 26 |
| Technicals | LLY | Price vs 50-day -0.6% vs 7.5%; vs 200-day 7.3% vs 18.7% |
| Risk Resilience | TSM | Risk Resilience 67 vs 50 |
| Analyst expectations | TSM | Target upside 36.4% vs 4.5% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of TSM and LLY and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 4 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has swung materially session to session. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on LLY.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20LLY lead: Reversed — TSM led by 9 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; LLY now leads by 4.
- Today
- LLY +4
- 58 vs 62
- 7 sessions ago
- LLY +5
- 56 vs 61
- 30 sessions ago
- TSM +9
- 72 vs 63
- 90 sessions ago
- TSM +20
- 71 vs 51
The lead changed hands once in this window, most recently on Oct 14 when LLY moved ahead of TSM.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
Only TSM
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
6 bullish / 2 bearish, conflicted
Only LLY
- BB Upper Band Breach — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- Keltner Channel Breakout — bullish, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Overbought — bearish, momentum, short horizon
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- 52-Week High Proximity — bullish, risk, long horizon (0.0%)
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
Both carry 1 more signal that do not separate them: Golden Cross Active.
LLY leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +1.6%, AIQ +1 points).
Price is down while the AIQ Score moved up 2 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price -1.01%, AIQ +2 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1TSM closes the Momentum gap — currently 74 points behind, the largest single contributor to LLY's edge.
- 2TSM's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it.
- 3LLY's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 6 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
TSM leads on balance| Metric | TSM | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 17.6% | 16% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 8% | -3.9% |
| Gross margin | 65.8% | 84% |
| Operating margin | 57.9% | 43.9% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 41.2% | 92.6% |
| Debt to equity | 0.14 | 1.62 |
Performance
LLY leads 5 of 6 windows| Metric | TSM | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -4.5% | 10% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -6% | 9.7% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 0.9% | 10.4% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 15.5% | 42.2% |
| Year to date | 39.9% | 19.4% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 41.8% | 56.7% |
Technicals
LLY has the stronger structure| Metric | TSM | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 36.7 | 74.4 |
| ADX (14) | 21.6 | 25.2 |
| Price vs 50-day | -0.6% | 7.5% |
| Price vs 200-day | 7.3% | 18.7% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 28.8% | 29.4% |
Risk
TSM is the more resilient| Metric | TSM | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.11 | 0.25 |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.04 | 1.41 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.66 | 2.62 |
| Max drawdown | -21.6% | -23.3% |
| Current drawdown | -12.5% | 0% |
| Annualized volatility | 38.9% | 34.9% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -3.8% | -2.6% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, TSM or LLY?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, LLY is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 62 against TSM's 58. The edge comes from momentum. TSM is not without a case — it holds the better quality profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is TSM or LLY the better buy right now?
LLY carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 4 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor LLY over TSM?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. LLY leads Momentum by 74 points; TSM leads Quality by 22 points; TSM leads Value by 19 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, TSM or LLY?
Analyst price targets imply +36.4% upside for TSM and +4.5% for LLY, so the Street currently favors TSM. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors LLY. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, TSM or LLY?
TSM is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. TSM on the peer-relative Value factor, by 19 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, TSM or LLY?
TSM on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, TSM or LLY?
LLY on the Momentum factor, by 74 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, TSM or LLY?
TSM is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. TSM on Risk Resilience, by 17 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is TSM more profitable than LLY?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 65.8% vs 84%; operating margin 57.9% vs 43.9%; ttm roe 41.2% vs 92.6%. TSM leads on one measure and LLY on two measures, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is LLY's lead over TSM getting stronger or weaker?
LLY lead: Reversed — TSM led by 9 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; LLY now leads by 4. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has changed hands once in that window, most recently on 2026-10-14, when LLY moved ahead of TSM.
What would change the TSM vs LLY verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: TSM closes the Momentum gap — currently 74 points behind, the largest single contributor to LLY's edge; TSM's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it; LLY's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 6 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about TSM and LLY?
TSM: 1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. LLY: 6 bullish / 2 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on TSM is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On LLY it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare TSM and LLY with others
Continue your research
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How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.