MAR vs SPY Stock Comparison
Compare MAR and SPY across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between MAR and SPY?
SPY leads the current stock comparison as State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF, with the clearest separation coming from quality and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Marriott International, Inc. vs State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF
SPY leads
SPY leads by 31 AIQ points, primarily on Quality and Momentum, but the lead has narrowed from 36 points over 30 sessions.
Competitive: 4 of 4 evidence groups support SPY, its lead is narrowing, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Marriott International, Inc.
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors SPY over MAR, 64 versus 33 as of Sep 6, 2026. SPY's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality and momentum. SPY also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 4 of 4 covered evidence groups favor SPY today, and the comparison is rated Competitive on stability: the leader's advantage has been narrowing. SPY lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 36 to 31 points over 30 sessions. SPY leads on all four AIQ factor dimensions. Value is itself one of those four, so a sweep is not explained by valuation alone — it deserves additional scrutiny for unmodeled catalysts, expectations or event risk.
Compare Marriott International, Inc. and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare MAR and SPY against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Quality30%39 vs 84SPY +45
- Momentum25%21 vs 57SPY +36
- Risk Resilience15%53 vs 89SPY +36
- Value30%26 vs 39SPY +13
4 of 4 evidence groups favor SPY. SPY’s edge is concentrated in quality and momentum.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-05, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-04.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
SPY's lead was unchanged in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — MAR and SPY both carry a full feed there.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
SPYSPY on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value at 30% each.
Growth
EvenGrowth figures are not covered for both names.
Value
SPYSPY on the peer-relative Value factor, by 13 points.
Momentum
SPYSPY on the Momentum factor, by 36 points.
Lower downside
SPYSPY on Risk Resilience, by 36 points.
Analyst upside
EvenAnalyst targets are level or not covered for both names.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | MAR | SPY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +15.5% | — | Level |
| Target dispersion | +27.3% | — | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | — | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 13 | — | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
4 of 4 covered evidence groups favor SPY. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | SPY | 33 vs 64 |
| Fundamentals | Not covered | Not covered |
| Valuation | SPY | Value 26 vs 39 |
| Technicals | SPY | Price vs 50-day -7% vs 1.8%; vs 200-day -2.4% vs 8.1% |
| Risk Resilience | SPY | Risk Resilience 53 vs 89 |
| Analyst expectations | Not covered | Not covered |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of MAR and SPY and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The two are close enough that your objective, not the score, should decide.
- The AIQ gap is wide at 31 points. (supports the conclusion holding)
- 4 of 4 covered evidence groups point the same way. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader's advantage has been narrowing. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on SPY.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Apr 24 – Sep 5SPY lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 36 to 31 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- SPY +31
- 33 vs 64
- 7 sessions ago
- SPY +28
- 36 vs 64
- 30 sessions ago
- SPY +36
- 35 vs 71
- 90 sessions ago
- SPY +24
- 36 vs 60
The lead has not changed hands in this window.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
2 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (4.98%)
- RSI Oversold - Potential Bounce — bullish, momentum, short horizon
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
4 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (6.28%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- 52-Week High Proximity — bullish, risk, long horizon (0.8%)
SPY leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +0.13%, AIQ 0 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -0.39%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1MAR closes the Quality gap — currently 45 points behind, the largest single contributor to SPY's edge.
- 2MAR's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it.
- 3SPY's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 4 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4The narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 5 points over 30 sessions, and a further 31-point move would eliminate SPY's advantage entirely.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
Split| Metric | MAR | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 6.3% | — |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 18.3% | — |
| Gross margin | 20.2% | — |
| Operating margin | 15.8% | — |
| Return on equity (TTM) | -66.7% | — |
| Debt to equity | -3.93 | — |
Performance
SPY leads 5 of 6 windows| Metric | MAR | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -4.2% | 0.1% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -4.9% | -0.4% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -11.1% | 4.4% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 3.9% | 14.5% |
| Year to date | 8.5% | 12.9% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 27% | 19.6% |
Technicals
SPY has the stronger structure| Metric | MAR | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 26.9 | 47.5 |
| ADX (14) | 18.7 | 13.6 |
| Price vs 50-day | -7% | 1.8% |
| Price vs 200-day | -2.4% | 8.1% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 17.5% | 8.1% |
Risk
SPY is the more resilient| Metric | MAR | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.63 | 1 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.81 | 1.1 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.41 | 1.56 |
| Max drawdown | -17.2% | -9.1% |
| Current drawdown | -16.4% | -1% |
| Annualized volatility | 27.4% | 12.8% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -2.5% | -1.4% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, MAR or SPY?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, SPY is the stronger of the two as of Sep 6, 2026, scoring 64 against MAR's 33. The edge comes from quality and momentum. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is MAR or SPY the better buy right now?
SPY carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 6, 2026, and the comparison is rated Competitive — 4 of 4 covered evidence groups agree. A Competitive rating means the two are close enough that your objective, not the score, should decide.
Why does the AIQ Score favor SPY over MAR?
The composite weights Quality at 30%, Value at 30%, Momentum at 25% and Risk Resilience at 15%. SPY leads Quality by 45 points; SPY leads Momentum by 36 points; SPY leads Risk Resilience by 36 points. SPY leads on all four AIQ factor dimensions. Value is itself one of those four, so the sweep is not explained by MAR simply being cheaper — it warrants extra scrutiny for unmodeled catalysts, forward expectations or event risk the factors do not capture.
Which has more analyst upside, MAR or SPY?
Analyst price targets imply +15.5% upside for MAR and not covered for SPY. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, MAR or SPY?
SPY is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. SPY on the peer-relative Value factor, by 13 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, MAR or SPY?
Growth figures are not covered for both names. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, MAR or SPY?
SPY on the Momentum factor, by 36 points. Momentum carries 25% of the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, MAR or SPY?
SPY is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. SPY on Risk Resilience, by 36 points. The Risk Resilience factor weights 15% of the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is MAR more profitable than SPY?
Margin data is not comparable for both names in the current snapshot.
Is SPY's lead over MAR getting stronger or weaker?
SPY lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 36 to 31 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-04-24 and 2026-09-05. The lead has not changed hands in that window.
What would change the MAR vs SPY verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: MAR closes the Quality gap — currently 45 points behind, the largest single contributor to SPY's edge; MAR's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it; SPY's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 4 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; the narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 5 points over 30 sessions, and a further 31-point move would eliminate SPY's advantage entirely.
What do the current signals say about MAR and SPY?
MAR: 2 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. SPY: 4 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on MAR is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On SPY it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality (30%), Value (30%), Momentum (25%) and Risk (15%). Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.