MEDP vs SPY Stock Comparison
Medpace Holdings, Inc. vs State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF
SPY leads
SPY leads by 11 AIQ points, primarily on Risk Resilience and Momentum, but the lead has narrowed from 19 points over 30 sessions.
Fragile: 3 of 4 evidence groups support SPY, its lead is narrowing, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Medpace Holdings, Inc.
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors SPY over MEDP, 64 versus 53 as of Sep 5, 2026. SPY's advantage is driven primarily by stronger risk resilience and momentum. SPY also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 3 of 4 covered evidence groups favor SPY today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the leader's advantage has been narrowing. SPY lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 19 to 11 points over 30 sessions. SPY leads on all four AIQ factor dimensions. Value is itself one of those four, so a sweep is not explained by valuation alone — it deserves additional scrutiny for unmodeled catalysts, expectations or event risk.
Compare Medpace Holdings, Inc. and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Compare MEDP and SPY against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Risk Resilience15%60 vs 89SPY +29
- Momentum25%44 vs 57SPY +13
- Value30%30 vs 39SPY +9
- Quality30%79 vs 84SPY +5
3 of 4 evidence groups favor SPY. SPY’s edge is concentrated in risk resilience and momentum.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-04, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-03.
Largest factor move: Momentum -8
No new signals fired.
Largest factor move: Momentum +1
No new signals fired.
SPY's lead widened by 2 AIQ points in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — MEDP and SPY both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF): the stronger current systematic profile, led by risk resilience and momentum.
MEDP (Medpace Holdings, Inc.): the counter-case, on technicals — but at materially higher volatility, 25.7% against 8.1%.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
SPYSPY on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value at 30% each.
Growth
EvenGrowth figures are not covered for both names.
Value
SPYSPY on the peer-relative Value factor, by 9 points.
Momentum
SPYSPY on the Momentum factor, by 13 points.
Lower downside
SPYSPY on Risk Resilience, by 29 points.
Analyst upside
EvenAnalyst targets are level or not covered for both names.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | MEDP | SPY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | -5.8% | — | Level |
| Target dispersion | +52.4% | — | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | — | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 8 | — | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 4 covered evidence groups favor SPY. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | SPY | 53 vs 64 |
| Fundamentals | Not covered | Not covered |
| Valuation | SPY | Value 30 vs 39 |
| Technicals | MEDP | Price vs 50-day 3% vs 1.8%; vs 200-day 13.5% vs 8.1% |
| Risk Resilience | SPY | Risk Resilience 60 vs 89 |
| Analyst expectations | Not covered | Not covered |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of MEDP and SPY and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 11 points.
- The leader's advantage has been narrowing. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on SPY.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Apr 23 – Sep 4SPY lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 19 to 11 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- SPY +11
- 53 vs 64
- 7 sessions ago
- SPY +9
- 55 vs 64
- 30 sessions ago
- SPY +19
- 52 vs 71
- 90 sessions ago
- MEDP +2
- 64 vs 62
The lead changed hands 5 times in this window, most recently on Jul 31 when SPY moved ahead of MEDP.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
3 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (10.23%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
4 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (6.28%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- 52-Week High Proximity — bullish, risk, long horizon (0.8%)
SPY leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price and the AIQ Score both moved down over the latest session (price -0.35%, AIQ -2 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -0.39%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1MEDP closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 29 points behind, the largest single contributor to SPY's edge.
- 2MEDP generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as MACD Bullish Crossover.
- 3SPY's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 4 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4The narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 8 points over 30 sessions, and a further 11-point move would eliminate SPY's advantage entirely.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
Split| Metric | MEDP | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 0.1% | — |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -0.9% | — |
| Gross margin | 28.8% | — |
| Operating margin | 21% | — |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 110.1% | — |
| Debt to equity | 0.28 | — |
Performance
MEDP leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | MEDP | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -1.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | 0.1% | -0.4% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 30.2% | 4.4% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 25.6% | 14.5% |
| Year to date | 5.3% | 12.9% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 23.1% | 19.6% |
Technicals
MEDP has the stronger structure| Metric | MEDP | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 47 | 47.5 |
| ADX (14) | 30.5 | 13.6 |
| Price vs 50-day | 3% | 1.8% |
| Price vs 200-day | 13.5% | 8.1% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 25.7% | 8.1% |
Risk
SPY is the more resilient| Metric | MEDP | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.74 | 1 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.65 | 1.56 |
| Max drawdown | -36.6% | -9.1% |
| Current drawdown | -4.8% | -1% |
| Annualized volatility | 44.8% | 12.8% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -3.1% | -1.4% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, MEDP or SPY?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, SPY is the stronger of the two as of Sep 5, 2026, scoring 64 against MEDP's 53. The edge comes from risk resilience and momentum. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is MEDP or SPY the better buy right now?
SPY carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 5, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 4 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the leader's advantage has been narrowing. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor SPY over MEDP?
The composite weights Quality at 30%, Value at 30%, Momentum at 25% and Risk Resilience at 15%. SPY leads Risk Resilience by 29 points; SPY leads Momentum by 13 points; SPY leads Value by 9 points. SPY leads on all four AIQ factor dimensions. Value is itself one of those four, so the sweep is not explained by MEDP simply being cheaper — it warrants extra scrutiny for unmodeled catalysts, forward expectations or event risk the factors do not capture.
Which has more analyst upside, MEDP or SPY?
Analyst price targets imply -5.8% upside for MEDP and not covered for SPY. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, MEDP or SPY?
SPY is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. SPY on the peer-relative Value factor, by 9 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, MEDP or SPY?
Growth figures are not covered for both names. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, MEDP or SPY?
SPY on the Momentum factor, by 13 points. Momentum carries 25% of the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, MEDP or SPY?
SPY is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. SPY on Risk Resilience, by 29 points. The Risk Resilience factor weights 15% of the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is MEDP more profitable than SPY?
Margin data is not comparable for both names in the current snapshot.
Is SPY's lead over MEDP getting stronger or weaker?
SPY lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 19 to 11 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-04-23 and 2026-09-04. The lead has changed hands 5 times in that window, most recently on 2026-07-31, when SPY moved ahead of MEDP.
What would change the MEDP vs SPY verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: MEDP closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 29 points behind, the largest single contributor to SPY's edge; MEDP generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as MACD Bullish Crossover; SPY's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 4 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; the narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 8 points over 30 sessions, and a further 11-point move would eliminate SPY's advantage entirely.
What do the current signals say about MEDP and SPY?
MEDP: 3 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. SPY: 4 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on MEDP is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On SPY it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality (30%), Value (30%), Momentum (25%) and Risk (15%). Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.