NGD vs SPY Stock Comparison
Compare NGD and SPY across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between NGD and SPY?
NGD leads the current stock comparison as New Gold Inc., with the clearest separation coming from quality and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
New Gold Inc. vs State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF
NGD leads
NGD leads by 1 AIQ points, primarily on Quality, having only recently taken the lead back from SPY.
Fragile: 1 of 4 evidence groups support NGD, and the lead recently changed hands.
New Gold Inc.
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors NGD over SPY, 61 versus 60 as of Sep 11, 2026. NGD's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality, while SPY holds the stronger risk resilience profile. NGD also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 1 of 4 covered evidence groups favor NGD today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 1 points. NGD lead: Reversed — SPY led by 22 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; NGD now leads by 1.
Compare New Gold Inc. and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare NGD and SPY against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Risk Resilience52 vs 89SPY +37
- Quality90 vs 84NGD +6
- Value36 vs 39Even
1 of 4 evidence groups favor NGD. NGD’s edge is concentrated in quality; SPY keeps a meaningful risk resilience edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-10, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-09.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
Largest factor move: Momentum -13
No new signals fired.
The lead changed hands: NGD moved ahead of SPY in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — NGD and SPY both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
NGD (New Gold Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality.
SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF): the counter-case, on risk resilience.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
NGDNGD on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
EvenGrowth figures are not covered for both names.
Value
EvenThe two are level on Value.
Momentum
EvenThe two are level on Momentum.
Lower downside
SPYSPY on Risk Resilience, by 37 points.
Analyst upside
EvenAnalyst targets are level or not covered for both names.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | NGD | SPY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +40.4% | — | Level |
| Target dispersion | 0% | — | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | — | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 1 | — | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
1 of 4 covered evidence groups favor NGD. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | Even | 61 vs 60 |
| Fundamentals | Not covered | Not covered |
| Valuation | Even | Value 36 vs 39 |
| Technicals | NGD | Price vs 50-day -18.6% vs 0.8%; vs 200-day 28% vs 6.2% |
| Risk Resilience | SPY | Risk Resilience 52 vs 89 |
| Analyst expectations | Not covered | Not covered |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of NGD and SPY and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 1 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 1 of 4 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has swung materially session to session. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on NGD.
How the comparison changed
119 daily snapshots · May 4 – Sep 10NGD lead: Reversed — SPY led by 22 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; NGD now leads by 1.
- Today
- NGD +1
- 61 vs 60
- 7 sessions ago
- SPY +3
- 61 vs 64
- 30 sessions ago
- SPY +22
- 47 vs 69
- 90 sessions ago
- SPY +12
- 47 vs 59
The lead changed hands once in this window, most recently on Sep 10 when NGD moved ahead of SPY.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
No active signals
3 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (6.24%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- 52-Week High Proximity — bullish, risk, long horizon (2.5%)
SPY is conflicted, so the timing case there is weaker than the score alone suggests.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price is up while the AIQ Score moved down 3 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price +0.85%, AIQ -3 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1SPY closes the Quality gap — currently 6 points behind, the largest single contributor to NGD's edge.
- 2SPY generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as MACD Bullish Crossover or Uptrend Structure Active.
- 3NGD starts generating bearish momentum or trend signals.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
Split| Metric | NGD | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 10.5% | — |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 3.7% | — |
| Gross margin | 51.8% | — |
| Operating margin | 44.8% | — |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 64.8% | — |
| Debt to equity | 0.21 | — |
Performance
Split across windows| Metric | NGD | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -15.3% | -1% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -14.6% | -1.9% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 10.3% | 4.5% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 41.2% | 12.1% |
| Year to date | 4.2% | 11.1% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 170.2% | 16.8% |
Technicals
NGD has the stronger structure| Metric | NGD | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 22.1 | 45.1 |
| ADX (14) | 22.6 | 12.3 |
| Price vs 50-day | -18.6% | 0.8% |
| Price vs 200-day | 28% | 6.2% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 69.9% | 8.5% |
Risk
SPY is the more resilient| Metric | NGD | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.37 | 1 |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.88 | 0.95 |
| Sortino ratio | 2.37 | 1.38 |
| Max drawdown | -32.3% | -9.1% |
| Current drawdown | -32.3% | -2.6% |
| Annualized volatility | 66% | 12.9% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -7% | -1.4% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, NGD or SPY?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, NGD is the stronger of the two as of Sep 11, 2026, scoring 61 against SPY's 60. The edge comes from quality. SPY is not without a case — it holds the better risk resilience profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is NGD or SPY the better buy right now?
NGD carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 11, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 1 of 4 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 1 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor NGD over SPY?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. SPY leads Risk Resilience by 37 points; NGD leads Quality by 6 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, NGD or SPY?
Analyst price targets imply +40.4% upside for NGD and not covered for SPY. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, NGD or SPY?
Neither name separates on the peer-relative Value factor. The two are level on Value. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, NGD or SPY?
Growth figures are not covered for both names. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, NGD or SPY?
The two are level on Momentum. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, NGD or SPY?
SPY is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. SPY on Risk Resilience, by 37 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is NGD more profitable than SPY?
Margin data is not comparable for both names in the current snapshot.
Is NGD's lead over SPY getting stronger or weaker?
NGD lead: Reversed — SPY led by 22 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; NGD now leads by 1. This is measured from 119 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-05-04 and 2026-09-10. The lead has changed hands once in that window, most recently on 2026-09-10, when NGD moved ahead of SPY.
What would change the NGD vs SPY verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: SPY closes the Quality gap — currently 6 points behind, the largest single contributor to NGD's edge; SPY generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as MACD Bullish Crossover or Uptrend Structure Active; NGD starts generating bearish momentum or trend signals; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about NGD and SPY?
NGD: No active signals. SPY: 3 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. On SPY it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.