SBUX vs XLY Stock Comparison
XLY currently leads SBUX in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 59 vs 48. The clearest difference is risk resilience, while SBUX has the stronger momentum profile.
What is the main difference between SBUX and XLY?
XLY leads the current stock comparison as State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF, with the clearest separation coming from risk resilience and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Starbucks Corporation vs State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF
XLY leads
XLY leads by 11 AIQ points, primarily on Risk Resilience and Quality, but the lead has narrowed from 18 points over 30 sessions.
Fragile: 3 of 4 evidence groups support XLY, its lead is narrowing, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Starbucks Corporation
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors XLY over SBUX, 59 versus 48 as of Oct 31, 2026. XLY's advantage is driven primarily by stronger risk resilience and quality, while SBUX holds the stronger momentum profile. XLY also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 3 of 4 covered evidence groups favor XLY today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the leader's advantage has been narrowing. XLY lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 18 to 11 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Starbucks Corporation and State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare SBUX and XLY against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Risk Resilience50 vs 74XLY +24
- Quality44 vs 67XLY +23
- Momentum82 vs 67SBUX +15
- Value24 vs 38XLY +14
3 of 4 evidence groups favor XLY. XLY’s edge is concentrated in risk resilience and quality; SBUX keeps a meaningful momentum edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-28, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-27.
No factor moved materially.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 5 active signals are unchanged.
Largest factor move: Momentum -2
New signals
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
XLY's lead narrowed by 1 AIQ point in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — SBUX and XLY both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
XLY (State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF): the stronger current systematic profile, led by risk resilience and quality.
SBUX (Starbucks Corporation): the counter-case, on momentum, technicals — but at materially higher volatility, 25.6% against 14.5%.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
XLYXLY on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
EvenGrowth figures are not covered for both names.
Value
XLYXLY on the peer-relative Value factor, by 14 points.
Momentum
SBUXSBUX on the Momentum factor, by 15 points.
Lower downside
XLYXLY on Risk Resilience, by 24 points.
Analyst upside
EvenAnalyst targets are level or not covered for both names.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | SBUX | XLY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +13.3% | — | Level |
| Target dispersion | +21.3% | — | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | — | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 11 | — | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 4 covered evidence groups favor XLY. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | XLY | 48 vs 59 |
| Fundamentals | Not covered | Not covered |
| Valuation | XLY | Value 24 vs 38 |
| Technicals | SBUX | Price vs 50-day 4.4% vs 1.8%; vs 200-day 3.5% vs -0.3% |
| Risk Resilience | XLY | Risk Resilience 50 vs 74 |
| Analyst expectations | Not covered | Not covered |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of SBUX and XLY and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 11 points.
- The leader's advantage has been narrowing. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on XLY.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 29 – Oct 28XLY lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 18 to 11 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- XLY +11
- 48 vs 59
- 7 sessions ago
- XLY +7
- 48 vs 55
- 30 sessions ago
- XLY +18
- 36 vs 54
- 90 sessions ago
- XLY +9
- 45 vs 54
The lead changed hands once in this window, most recently on Jul 25 when XLY moved ahead of SBUX.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
3 bullish / 2 bearish, conflicted
Only SBUX
- Keltner Channel Breakout — bullish, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Overbought — bearish, momentum, short horizon
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
1 bullish / 1 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted
Only XLY
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- ATR Contraction - Coiling — neutral, volatility, short horizon (1.38%)
Both carry 2 more signals that do not separate them: Death Cross Active, MACD Bullish Crossover.
XLY leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -1.74%, AIQ 0 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved down over the latest session (price -0.71%, AIQ -1 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1SBUX closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 24 points behind, the largest single contributor to XLY's edge.
- 2SBUX's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3XLY's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4The narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 7 points over 30 sessions, and a further 11-point move would eliminate XLY's advantage entirely.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
Split| Metric | SBUX | XLY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -2.2% | — |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 102.2% | — |
| Gross margin | 31.7% | — |
| Operating margin | 9.4% | — |
| Return on equity (TTM) | -24.3% | — |
| Debt to equity | -2.92 | — |
Performance
SBUX leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | SBUX | XLY |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 4.2% | -0.2% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | 9.8% | 6% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -2.5% | 2.6% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -2.2% | -1.3% |
| Year to date | 22.6% | -3.4% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 19.9% | -2.9% |
Technicals
SBUX has the stronger structure| Metric | SBUX | XLY |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 77.3 | 63.4 |
| ADX (14) | 30.3 | 16.5 |
| Price vs 50-day | 4.4% | 1.8% |
| Price vs 200-day | 3.5% | -0.3% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 25.6% | 14.5% |
Risk
XLY is the more resilient| Metric | SBUX | XLY |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.54 | 1.17 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.68 | -0.34 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.27 | -0.53 |
| Max drawdown | -16.4% | -15.2% |
| Current drawdown | -4.9% | -7.4% |
| Annualized volatility | 27.6% | 19.3% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -2.5% | -2% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, SBUX or XLY?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, XLY is the stronger of the two as of Oct 31, 2026, scoring 59 against SBUX's 48. The edge comes from risk resilience and quality. SBUX is not without a case — it holds the better momentum profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is SBUX or XLY the better buy right now?
XLY carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 31, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 4 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the leader's advantage has been narrowing. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor XLY over SBUX?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. XLY leads Risk Resilience by 24 points; XLY leads Quality by 23 points; SBUX leads Momentum by 15 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, SBUX or XLY?
Analyst price targets imply +13.3% upside for SBUX and not covered for XLY. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, SBUX or XLY?
XLY is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. XLY on the peer-relative Value factor, by 14 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, SBUX or XLY?
Growth figures are not covered for both names. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, SBUX or XLY?
SBUX on the Momentum factor, by 15 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, SBUX or XLY?
XLY is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. XLY on Risk Resilience, by 24 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is SBUX more profitable than XLY?
Margin data is not comparable for both names in the current snapshot.
Is XLY's lead over SBUX getting stronger or weaker?
XLY lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 18 to 11 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-29 and 2026-10-28. The lead has changed hands once in that window, most recently on 2026-07-25, when XLY moved ahead of SBUX.
What would change the SBUX vs XLY verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: SBUX closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 24 points behind, the largest single contributor to XLY's edge; SBUX's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; XLY's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; the narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 7 points over 30 sessions, and a further 11-point move would eliminate XLY's advantage entirely.
What do the current signals say about SBUX and XLY?
SBUX: 3 bullish / 2 bearish, conflicted. XLY: 1 bullish / 1 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on SBUX is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On XLY it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.