SPY vs TBIL: Performance, Holdings, Fees & Risk
SPY and TBIL are ETFs, but they can differ materially in exposure, yield, fees and risk. SPY is State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF, while TBIL is F/m US Treasury 3 Month Bill Fund. Current AlgovestIQ evidence has SPY ahead on AIQ Score, 66 versus 58.
| Metric | SPY | TBIL |
|---|---|---|
| Performance | ||
| 1Y return | +16.4% | +0% |
| YTD return | +12.8% | +0.1% |
| AlgovestIQ | ||
| AIQ Score | 66/100 | 58/100 |
| AIQ Edge Score | 9/10 | 7/10 |
| Momentum | 63/100 | 78/100 |
| Risk Resilience | 88/100 | 66/100 |
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF vs F/m US Treasury 3 Month Bill Fund
SPY leads
SPY leads by 8 AIQ points, primarily on Quality and Risk Resilience.
Stable: 4 of 4 evidence groups support SPY.
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF
F/m US Treasury 3 Month Bill Fund
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors SPY over TBIL, 66 versus 58 as of Oct 21, 2026. SPY's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality and risk resilience, while TBIL holds the stronger momentum profile. SPY also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 4 of 4 covered evidence groups favor SPY today, and the comparison is rated Stable on stability.
Compare State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF and F/m US Treasury 3 Month Bill Fund across performance, expense ratio, dividend yield, drawdown, volatility and the Algovestiq AIQ Score.
Performance over time
Price return from daily closes; distributions are not included.
Price return comparison
Growth of $10,000, price only
Split-adjusted closes only. Distributions are excluded, which understates the return of any fund or stock that pays them.
Compare SPY and TBIL against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Quality84 vs 61SPY +23
- Risk Resilience88 vs 66SPY +22
- Momentum63 vs 78TBIL +15
- Value41 vs 36SPY +5
4 of 4 evidence groups favor SPY. SPY’s edge is concentrated in quality and risk resilience; TBIL keeps a meaningful momentum edge.
The central trade-off
SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality and risk resilience.
TBIL (F/m US Treasury 3 Month Bill Fund): the counter-case, on momentum.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
4 of 4 covered evidence groups favor SPY. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | SPY | 66 vs 58 |
| Fundamentals | Not covered | Not covered |
| Valuation | SPY | Value 41 vs 36 |
| Technicals | SPY | Price vs 50-day 0.6% vs 0.1%; vs 200-day 5.9% vs 0.1% |
| Risk Resilience | SPY | Risk Resilience 88 vs 66 |
| Analyst expectations | Not covered | Not covered |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of SPY and TBIL and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion rests on a wide gap and broad agreement. It is unlikely to turn on a single session.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 8 points.
- 4 of 4 covered evidence groups point the same way. (supports the conclusion holding)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on SPY.
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1TBIL closes the Quality gap — currently 23 points behind, the largest single contributor to SPY's edge.
- 2TBIL generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as Golden Cross Active or MACD Bullish Crossover.
- 3SPY starts generating bearish momentum or trend signals.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Performance
SPY leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | SPY | TBIL |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -1.2% | 0.1% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -0.6% | 0% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 2.9% | 0% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 9.2% | 0% |
| Year to date | 12.8% | 0.1% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 16.4% | 0% |
Technicals
SPY has the stronger structure| Metric | SPY | TBIL |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 56.2 | 100 |
| ADX (14) | 12.5 | 17.2 |
| Price vs 50-day | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Price vs 200-day | 5.9% | 0.1% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 9% | 1.1% |
Compare SPY and TBIL with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.