SPY vs VTI ETF Comparison

State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF vs Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF

Data as of Sep 2, 2026· market close· Broad Market / Index· Coverage 54/66 fields· Moderate confidence
AIQ VerdictFragileAIQ Comparison Conviction 2/10

SPY leads

SPY leads by 4 AIQ points, primarily on Quality.

Fragile: 1 of 4 evidence groups support SPY, and its current signal state is conflicted.

Evidence agreement: 1 of 4Comparison trend: Stable
SPY

State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF

Leads
AIQ Score
64/100
AIQ Edge Score
9/10
VTI

Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF

AIQ Score
60/100
AIQ Edge Score
8/10

The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors SPY over VTI, 64 versus 60 as of Sep 2, 2026. SPY's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality. SPY also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 1 of 4 covered evidence groups favor SPY today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 4 points. SPY lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 4 points over 30 sessions.

Compare State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF and Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF across performance, expense ratio, dividend yield, drawdown, volatility and the Algovestiq AIQ Score.

AIQ Factor Divergence

Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.

SPY advantage
0
VTI advantage
  • Quality30%84 vs 74
    SPY +10
  • Value30%39 vs 38
    Even
  • Risk Resilience15%88 vs 87
    Even
  • Momentum25%55 vs 55
    Even

1 of 4 evidence groups favor SPY. SPY’s edge is concentrated in quality.

What changed since the last close

Latest scored session 2026-09-01, compared against the prior scored session 2026-08-31.

SPY0 AIQ

No factor moved materially.

No new signals fired.

VTI0 AIQ

No factor moved materially.

No new signals fired.

SPY's lead was unchanged in the latest snapshot.

Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — SPY and VTI both carry a full feed there.

Which one fits your objective

The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.

Balanced

SPY

SPY on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value at 30% each.

Growth

Even

Growth figures are not covered for both names.

Value

Even

The two are level on Value.

Momentum

Even

The two are level on Momentum.

Lower downside

Even

Downside measures are level or not covered.

Analyst upside

Even

Analyst targets are level or not covered for both names.

Fund facts, side by side

Two funds tracking overlapping universes are separated by cost and risk far more than by holdings. Those lead here.

MeasureSPYVTIWhy it matters
Expense ratio0.09%0.03%Lower is better — it compounds against you every year you hold.
Assets under management$811.9B$2.30TLarger funds generally carry tighter spreads.
Holdings5043,598More holdings means broader diversification, not better returns.
Average volume73,651,1724,488,042Liquidity — matters most if you trade size.
Annualized volatility12.8%13.1%Lower is a steadier ride for the same exposure.
Max drawdown-9.1%-9.2%The worst peak-to-trough loss on record for the fund.
Sharpe ratio1.071.05Return per unit of risk. Higher is better.
Beta1.001.02Sensitivity to the broad market. Neither direction is better — it depends on the role in your portfolio.

Where the exposure actually sits

SPY and VTI share 136.69% of their weighted exposure across 500 common holdings.

Technology37.4% vs 35.2%
Industrials8.2% vs 9.3%
Communication Services9.9% vs 8.9%
Healthcare9.1% vs 9.8%
Basic Materials1.6% vs 2.2%
Real Estate1.9% vs 2.4%
Cash & Others0.0% vs 0.4%
Consumer Cyclical9.6% vs 9.3%
SPYVTI

SPY is the more concentrated of the two: its ten largest positions are 58.08% of the fund, against 51.44% for VTI (504 holdings vs 3482). Concentration cuts both ways — it is what drives outperformance when the top names work, and what makes the drawdown deeper when they do not.

4 holdings are unique to SPY and 2982 to VTI. Owning both adds little diversification — they are largely the same exposure in different wrappers.

Largest shared positions

HoldingSPYVTIShared
AAPLAPPLE INC14.06%12.58%12.58%
MSFTMICROSOFT CORP11.39%9.57%9.57%
AMZNAMAZON.COM INC7.68%7.29%7.29%
NVDANVIDIA CORP8.08%6.4%6.4%
GOOGLALPHABET INC CL A3.01%2.9%2.9%
LLYELI LILLY + CO2.76%2.7%2.7%
MUMICRON TECHNOLOGY INC3.27%2.57%2.57%
AVGOBROADCOM INC2.65%2.56%2.56%

Shared weight is the lower of the two positions — the portion of capital both funds genuinely have in the same security.

AIQ Agreement Matrix

1 of 4 covered evidence groups favor SPY. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.

Evidence groupFavorsReading
AIQ ScoreSPY64 vs 60
FundamentalsNot coveredNot covered
ValuationEvenValue 39 vs 38
TechnicalsEvenPrice vs 50-day 1.4% vs 1.1%; vs 200-day 8% vs 7.9%
Risk ResilienceEvenRisk Resilience 88 vs 87
Analyst expectationsNot coveredNot covered

✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of SPY and VTI and are excluded from the count.

AIQ Decision Stability

Fragile

The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.

  • The AIQ gap is narrow at 4 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
  • Only 1 of 4 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
  • The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
  • The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)

Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on SPY.

How the comparison changed

120 daily snapshots · Apr 20 Sep 1

SPY lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 4 points over 30 sessions.

Apr 20SPY leads above the line · VTI leads belowSep 1
Today
SPY +4
64 vs 60
7 sessions ago
SPY +3
64 vs 61
30 sessions ago
SPY +5
71 vs 66
90 sessions ago
VTI +3
57 vs 60

The lead changed hands 9 times in this window, most recently on Aug 1 when SPY moved ahead of VTI.

AIQ Signal Divergence

Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.

SPYConflicted

4 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted

  • Golden Cross Active bullish, trend, long horizon (6.21%)
  • EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish bullish, trend, medium horizon
  • 52-Week High Proximity bullish, risk, long horizon (1.5%)
VTIConflicted

4 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted

  • Golden Cross Active bullish, trend, long horizon (6.40%)
  • EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish bullish, trend, medium horizon
  • 52-Week High Proximity bullish, risk, long horizon (1.7%)

SPY leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.

Price vs model alignment

Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.

SPYNo material change

Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +0.45%, AIQ 0 points).

VTINo material change

Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +0.46%, AIQ 0 points).

What would flip this result

A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.

  1. 1VTI closes the Quality gap — currently 10 points behind, the largest single contributor to SPY's edge.
  2. 2VTI generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as MACD Bullish Crossover.
  3. 3SPY's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 4 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
  4. 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.

The full evidence

Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.

Technicals

Split
MetricSPYVTI
RSI (14)45.944.4
ADX (14)1514.6
Price vs 50-day1.4%1.1%
Price vs 200-day8%7.9%
Volatility (1M, annualized)9.4%9.9%

Risk

Split
MetricSPYVTI
Beta11.02
Sharpe ratio1.071.05
Sortino ratio1.521.51
Max drawdown-9.1%-9.2%
Current drawdown-1.4%-1.6%
Annualized volatility12.8%13.1%
Value at risk (95%)-1.4%-1.4%

Straight answers

Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.

Which is better, SPY or VTI?

On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, SPY is the stronger of the two as of Sep 2, 2026, scoring 64 against VTI's 60. The edge comes from quality. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.

Is SPY or VTI the better buy right now?

SPY carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 2, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 1 of 4 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 4 points. Treat the lead as provisional.

Why does the AIQ Score favor SPY over VTI?

The composite weights Quality at 30%, Value at 30%, Momentum at 25% and Risk Resilience at 15%. SPY leads Quality by 10 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.

Which is better value, SPY or VTI?

Neither name separates on the peer-relative Value factor. The two are level on Value. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.

Which has stronger growth, SPY or VTI?

Growth figures are not covered for both names. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.

Which has stronger momentum, SPY or VTI?

The two are level on Momentum. Momentum carries 25% of the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.

Which is riskier, SPY or VTI?

The two are close on downside measures. Downside measures are level or not covered. The Risk Resilience factor weights 15% of the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.

Is SPY more profitable than VTI?

Margin data is not comparable for both names in the current snapshot.

Is SPY's lead over VTI getting stronger or weaker?

SPY lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 4 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-04-20 and 2026-09-01. The lead has changed hands 9 times in that window, most recently on 2026-08-01, when SPY moved ahead of VTI.

What would change the SPY vs VTI verdict?

The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: VTI closes the Quality gap — currently 10 points behind, the largest single contributor to SPY's edge; VTI generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as MACD Bullish Crossover; SPY's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 4 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.

What do the current signals say about SPY and VTI?

SPY: 4 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. VTI: 4 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on SPY is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On VTI it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).

Compare SPY and VTI with others

How this comparison is scored

The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality (30%), Value (30%), Momentum (25%) and Risk (15%). Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.

The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.

How to use side-by-side comparison →

This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.