TMF vs TSLL Stock Comparison
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF vs Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X ETF
TSLL leads
TSLL leads by 1 AIQ points, primarily on Momentum and Quality, having only recently taken the lead back from TMF.
Fragile: 0 of 4 evidence groups support TSLL, the lead recently changed hands, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X ETF
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors TSLL over TMF, 45 versus 44 as of Sep 5, 2026. TSLL's advantage is driven primarily by stronger momentum and quality, while TMF holds the stronger risk resilience profile. TSLL also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 0 of 4 covered evidence groups favor TSLL today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 1 points. TSLL lead: Reversed — TMF led by 2 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; TSLL now leads by 1.
Compare Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF and Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X ETF across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Compare TMF and TSLL against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Risk Resilience15%31 vs 0TMF +31
- Momentum25%43 vs 66TSLL +23
- Value30%36 vs 25TMF +11
- Quality30%60 vs 70TSLL +10
0 of 4 evidence groups favor TSLL. TSLL’s edge is concentrated in momentum and quality; TMF keeps a meaningful risk resilience edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-03, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-02.
Largest factor move: Momentum +5
No new signals fired.
Largest factor move: Momentum +18
New signals
- BB Upper Band Breach — bearish, volatility, short horizon
The lead changed hands: TSLL moved ahead of TMF in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — TMF and TSLL both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
TSLL (Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X ETF): the stronger current systematic profile, led by momentum and quality.
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF): the counter-case, on risk resilience, value, valuation.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
TSLLTSLL on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value at 30% each.
Growth
EvenGrowth figures are not covered for both names.
Value
TMFTMF on the peer-relative Value factor, by 11 points.
Momentum
TSLLTSLL on the Momentum factor, by 23 points.
Lower downside
TMFTMF on Risk Resilience, by 31 points.
Analyst upside
EvenAnalyst targets are level or not covered for both names.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
0 of 4 covered evidence groups favor TSLL. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | Even | 44 vs 45 |
| Fundamentals | Not covered | Not covered |
| Valuation | TMF | Value 36 vs 25 |
| Technicals | TMF | Price vs 50-day -4.2% vs -8%; vs 200-day -14.4% vs -26.8% |
| Risk Resilience | TMF | Risk Resilience 31 vs 0 |
| Analyst expectations | Not covered | Not covered |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of TMF and TSLL and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 1 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 0 of 4 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on TSLL.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Apr 22 – Sep 3TSLL lead: Reversed — TMF led by 2 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; TSLL now leads by 1.
- Today
- TSLL +1
- 44 vs 45
- 7 sessions ago
- TMF +4
- 45 vs 41
- 30 sessions ago
- TMF +2
- 43 vs 41
- 90 sessions ago
- TMF +15
- 49 vs 34
The lead changed hands 5 times in this window, most recently on Sep 3 when TSLL moved ahead of TMF.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (11.51%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
1 bullish / 2 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (42.51%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- BB Upper Band Breach — bearish, volatility, short horizon
TSLL leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +0.36%, AIQ +1 points).
Price is down while the AIQ Score moved up 5 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price -11.85%, AIQ +5 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1TMF closes the Momentum gap — currently 23 points behind, the largest single contributor to TSLL's edge.
- 2TMF's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3TSLL's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Technicals
TMF has the stronger structure| Metric | TMF | TSLL |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 51.3 | 62.2 |
| ADX (14) | 16.1 | 21.5 |
| Price vs 50-day | -4.2% | -8% |
| Price vs 200-day | -14.4% | -26.8% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 30.6% | 89.9% |
Risk
TMF is the more resilient| Metric | TMF | TSLL |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.52 | 4.54 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.71 | 0.26 |
| Sortino ratio | -1.14 | 0.4 |
| Max drawdown | -32.4% | -70.7% |
| Current drawdown | -30.3% | -54.9% |
| Annualized volatility | 27.4% | 94.5% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -3% | -9% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, TMF or TSLL?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, TSLL is the stronger of the two as of Sep 5, 2026, scoring 45 against TMF's 44. The edge comes from momentum and quality. TMF is not without a case — it holds the better risk resilience profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is TMF or TSLL the better buy right now?
TSLL carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 5, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 0 of 4 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 1 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor TSLL over TMF?
The composite weights Quality at 30%, Value at 30%, Momentum at 25% and Risk Resilience at 15%. TMF leads Risk Resilience by 31 points; TSLL leads Momentum by 23 points; TMF leads Value by 11 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which is better value, TMF or TSLL?
TMF is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. TMF on the peer-relative Value factor, by 11 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, TMF or TSLL?
Growth figures are not covered for both names. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, TMF or TSLL?
TSLL on the Momentum factor, by 23 points. Momentum carries 25% of the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, TMF or TSLL?
TMF is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. TMF on Risk Resilience, by 31 points. The Risk Resilience factor weights 15% of the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is TMF more profitable than TSLL?
Margin data is not comparable for both names in the current snapshot.
Is TSLL's lead over TMF getting stronger or weaker?
TSLL lead: Reversed — TMF led by 2 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; TSLL now leads by 1. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-04-22 and 2026-09-03. The lead has changed hands 5 times in that window, most recently on 2026-09-03, when TSLL moved ahead of TMF.
What would change the TMF vs TSLL verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: TMF closes the Momentum gap — currently 23 points behind, the largest single contributor to TSLL's edge; TMF's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; TSLL's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about TMF and TSLL?
TMF: 1 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. TSLL: 1 bullish / 2 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on TMF is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On TSLL it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality (30%), Value (30%), Momentum (25%) and Risk (15%). Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.