TMF vs UPRO: Performance, Holdings, Fees & Risk
TMF and UPRO are ETFs, but they can differ materially in exposure, yield, fees and risk. TMF is Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF, while UPRO is ProShares - UltraPro S&P500. UPRO is broader by holdings count, with 518 positions versus 14 for TMF. UPRO has the lower expense ratio. Current AlgovestIQ evidence has TMF ahead on AIQ Score, 51 versus 41.
What is the main difference between TMF and UPRO?
UPRO holds 518 positions to TMF's 14.
| Metric | TMF | UPRO |
|---|---|---|
| Fund | ||
| Expense ratio | 1.01% | 0.88% |
| Holdings | 14 | 518 |
| Distribution yieldTrailing 12 months | 4.76% | 0.79% |
| Average volume | 5,684,252 | 1,999,685 |
| Performance | ||
| 1Y return | -33.3% | +28.7% |
| YTD return | -21.3% | +24.4% |
| 5Y annualized returnTotal return, distributions reinvested | -33.9% | +17.2% |
| Risk | ||
| Annualized volatility | 28.3% | 38.2% |
| Max drawdown (1Y) | -42.9% | -26.9% |
| Max drawdown (5Y)Total return, distributions reinvested | -90.9% | -63.9% |
| Beta | 0.65 | 3.00 |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.44 | 0.77 |
| Sortino ratio | -2.29 | 1.18 |
| AlgovestIQ | ||
| AIQ Score | 51/100 | 41/100 |
| AIQ Edge Score | 4/10 | 2/10 |
| Momentum | 73/100 | 33/100 |
| Risk Resilience | 24/100 | 28/100 |
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF vs ProShares - UltraPro S&P500
TMF leads
TMF leads by 10 AIQ points, primarily on Momentum and Quality, having only recently taken the lead back from UPRO.
Fragile: 1 of 4 evidence groups support TMF, the lead recently changed hands, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
ProShares - UltraPro S&P500
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors TMF over UPRO, 51 versus 41 as of Oct 24, 2026. TMF's advantage is driven primarily by stronger momentum and quality, while UPRO holds the stronger risk resilience profile. TMF also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 1 of 4 covered evidence groups favor TMF today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: only 1 of 4 covered evidence groups agree. TMF lead: Reversed — UPRO led by 11 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; TMF now leads by 10.
Compare Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF and ProShares - UltraPro S&P500 across performance, expense ratio, dividend yield, drawdown, volatility and the Algovestiq AIQ Score.
TMF vs UPRO: which fits what
Each row is settled by a single measure. Where the gap is too small to matter it reads Similar, and no row decides the comparison as a whole.
| If you want | TMF | UPRO | Fits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lower costExpense ratio | 1.01% | 0.88% | UPRO |
| Broader diversificationNumber of holdings | 14 | 518 | UPRO |
| Higher incomeTrailing 12-month distribution yield | 4.76% | 0.79% | TMF |
| Smaller drawdownsMax drawdown, 5 years | -90.9% | -63.9% | UPRO |
| Lower volatilityAnnualized volatility, 1 year | 28.3% | 38.2% | TMF |
Similar means the gap is within 0.01 percentage points of expense ratio, 25% more holdings, 3 points of top-10 weight, 0.2 points of yield, 2 points of drawdown or 1 point of volatility. Past drawdowns and volatility describe the funds’ history, not their future.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes for both ETFs.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare TMF and UPRO against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum73 vs 33TMF +40
- Quality62 vs 58TMF +4
- Risk Resilience24 vs 28UPRO +4
- Value36 vs 37Even
1 of 4 evidence groups favor TMF. TMF’s edge is concentrated in momentum and quality; UPRO keeps a meaningful risk resilience edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-23, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-22.
Largest factor move: Quality +1, not enough on its own to move the overall score.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 5 active signals are unchanged.
Largest factor move: Momentum -8
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 2 active signals are unchanged.
TMF's lead widened by 2 AIQ points in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — TMF and UPRO both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF): the stronger current systematic profile, led by momentum and quality.
UPRO (ProShares - UltraPro S&P500): the counter-case, on risk resilience, technicals.
Fund facts, side by side
Two funds tracking overlapping universes are separated by cost and risk far more than by holdings. Those lead here.
| Measure | TMF | UPRO | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expense ratio | 1.01% | 0.88% | Lower is better — it compounds against you every year you hold. |
| Holdings | 14 | 518 | More holdings means broader diversification, not better returns. |
| Average volume | 5,684,252 | 1,999,685 | Liquidity — matters most if you trade size. |
| Annualized volatility | 28.3% | 38.2% | Lower is a steadier ride for the same exposure. |
| Max drawdown (1Y) | -42.9% | -26.9% | The worst peak-to-trough loss over the past year. |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.44 | 0.77 | Return per unit of risk. Higher is better. |
| Beta | 0.65 | 3.00 | Sensitivity to the broad market. Neither direction is better — it depends on the role in your portfolio. |
Where the exposure actually sits
Sector exposure for each fund, ordered by the size of the difference.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
1 of 4 covered evidence groups favor TMF. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | TMF | 51 vs 41 |
| Fundamentals | Not covered | Not covered |
| Valuation | Even | Value 36 vs 37 |
| Technicals | UPRO | Price vs 50-day 1.8% vs -4.1%; vs 200-day -13.7% vs 8.5% |
| Risk Resilience | UPRO | Risk Resilience 24 vs 28 |
| Analyst expectations | Not covered | Not covered |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of TMF and UPRO and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 10 points.
- Only 1 of 4 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has swung materially session to session. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on TMF.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 24 – Oct 23TMF lead: Reversed — UPRO led by 11 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; TMF now leads by 10.
- Today
- TMF +10
- 51 vs 41
- 7 sessions ago
- UPRO +3
- 45 vs 48
- 30 sessions ago
- UPRO +11
- 39 vs 50
- 90 sessions ago
- UPRO +5
- 44 vs 49
The lead changed hands 5 times in this window, most recently on Oct 22 when TMF moved ahead of UPRO.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
2 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only TMF
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (18.00%)
- Keltner Channel Breakout — bullish, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Overbought — bearish, momentum, short horizon
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
Only UPRO
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (12.89%)
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
TMF leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -1.41%, AIQ 0 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved down over the latest session (price -1.7%, AIQ -2 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1UPRO closes the Momentum gap — currently 40 points behind, the largest single contributor to TMF's edge.
- 2UPRO's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it.
- 3TMF's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 2 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Performance
UPRO leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | TMF | UPRO |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 4.7% | -1.6% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | 7.9% | -5.4% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -9.4% | 5.6% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -18.9% | 13.4% |
| Year to date | -21.3% | 24.4% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -33.3% | 28.7% |
Technicals
UPRO has the stronger structure| Metric | TMF | UPRO |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 78.8 | 35.3 |
| ADX (14) | 26 | 15.7 |
| Price vs 50-day | 1.8% | -4.1% |
| Price vs 200-day | -13.7% | 8.5% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 33.7% | 29.2% |
Risk
UPRO is the more resilient| Metric | TMF | UPRO |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.65 | 3 |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.44 | 0.77 |
| Sortino ratio | -2.29 | 1.18 |
| Max drawdown | -42.9% | -26.9% |
| Current drawdown | -33.5% | -8.7% |
| Annualized volatility | 28.3% | 38.2% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -3% | -4.1% |
Straight answers
Short answers to the questions fund investors ask about this pair, from the figures above.
What is the difference between TMF and UPRO?
UPRO holds 518 positions to TMF's 14.
Which ETF is more diversified, TMF or UPRO?
UPRO holds more positions: 518 versus 14 for TMF.
Which has the lower expense ratio?
UPRO has the lower expense ratio, 0.88% a year against 1.01% for TMF.
Which ETF has the higher distribution yield?
TMF, with a trailing 12-month distribution yield of 4.76% against 0.79% for UPRO.
Which ETF has been more volatile?
UPRO has been more volatile over the past year, at 38.2% annualized against 28.3% for TMF.
Which ETF has had the smaller drawdown?
UPRO fell less from peak to trough over the past five years: -63.9% against -90.9% for TMF.
Compare TMF and UPRO with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.