TSM vs USO Stock Comparison
USO currently leads TSM in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 65 vs 58. The clearest difference is momentum, while TSM has the stronger risk resilience profile.
What is the main difference between TSM and USO?
USO leads the current stock comparison as United States Oil Fund, LP, with the clearest separation coming from momentum and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited vs United States Oil Fund, LP
USO leads
USO leads by 7 AIQ points, primarily on Momentum, having only recently taken the lead back from TSM.
Fragile: 3 of 4 evidence groups support USO, the lead recently changed hands, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
United States Oil Fund, LP
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors USO over TSM, 65 versus 58 as of Oct 21, 2026. USO's advantage is driven primarily by stronger momentum, while TSM holds the stronger risk resilience profile. USO also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 3 of 4 covered evidence groups favor USO today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. USO lead: Reversed — TSM led by 21 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; USO now leads by 7.
Compare Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited and United States Oil Fund, LP across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare TSM and USO against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum21 vs 82USO +61
- Risk Resilience67 vs 23TSM +44
- Quality98 vs 72TSM +26
3 of 4 evidence groups favor USO. USO’s edge is concentrated in momentum; TSM keeps a meaningful risk resilience edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum +3
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 2 active signals are unchanged.
Largest factor move: Risk Resilience +1, not enough on its own to move the overall score.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 6 active signals are unchanged.
USO's lead narrowed by 1 AIQ point in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — TSM and USO both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
USO (United States Oil Fund, LP): the stronger current systematic profile, led by momentum.
TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited): the counter-case, on risk resilience, quality.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
USOUSO on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
EvenGrowth figures are not covered for both names.
Value
EvenThe two are level on Value.
Momentum
USOUSO on the Momentum factor, by 61 points.
Lower downside
TSMTSM on Risk Resilience, by 44 points.
Analyst upside
USOUSO on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | TSM | USO | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +36.4% | +57.8% | USO has more room |
| Target dispersion | +34% | 0% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | — | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 7 | 1 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 4 covered evidence groups favor USO. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | USO | 58 vs 65 |
| Fundamentals | Not covered | Not covered |
| Valuation | Not covered | Not covered |
| Technicals | USO | Price vs 50-day -0.6% vs 10.8%; vs 200-day 7.3% vs 33.6% |
| Risk Resilience | TSM | Risk Resilience 67 vs 23 |
| Analyst expectations | USO | Target upside 36.4% vs 57.8% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of TSM and USO and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 7 points.
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has swung materially session to session. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on USO.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20USO lead: Reversed — TSM led by 21 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; USO now leads by 7.
- Today
- USO +7
- 58 vs 65
- 7 sessions ago
- USO +5
- 56 vs 61
- 30 sessions ago
- TSM +21
- 72 vs 51
- 90 sessions ago
- TSM +13
- 71 vs 58
The lead changed hands 11 times in this window, most recently on Oct 15 when USO moved ahead of TSM.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
Only TSM
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
5 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
Only USO
- RSI Overbought — bearish, momentum, short horizon
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- 52-Week High Proximity — bullish, risk, long horizon (0.4%)
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
Both carry 1 more signal that do not separate them: Golden Cross Active.
USO leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +1.6%, AIQ +1 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -0.5%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1TSM closes the Momentum gap — currently 61 points behind, the largest single contributor to USO's edge.
- 2TSM's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it.
- 3USO's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 5 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
Split| Metric | TSM | USO |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 17.6% | — |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 8% | — |
| Gross margin | 65.8% | — |
| Operating margin | 57.9% | — |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 41.2% | — |
| Debt to equity | 0.14 | — |
Performance
USO leads 6 of 6 windows| Metric | TSM | USO |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -4.5% | 4.9% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -6% | 11.5% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 0.9% | 22% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 15.5% | 25.2% |
| Year to date | 39.9% | 132% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 41.8% | 135.5% |
Technicals
USO has the stronger structure| Metric | TSM | USO |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 36.7 | 73.9 |
| ADX (14) | 21.6 | 25.6 |
| Price vs 50-day | -0.6% | 10.8% |
| Price vs 200-day | 7.3% | 33.6% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 28.8% | 34.7% |
Risk
TSM is the more resilient| Metric | TSM | USO |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.11 | -1.55 |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.04 | 1.91 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.66 | 3.04 |
| Max drawdown | -21.6% | -32.5% |
| Current drawdown | -12.5% | -0.8% |
| Annualized volatility | 38.9% | 49.6% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -3.8% | -4.4% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, TSM or USO?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, USO is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 65 against TSM's 58. The edge comes from momentum. TSM is not without a case — it holds the better risk resilience profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is TSM or USO the better buy right now?
USO carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 4 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor USO over TSM?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. USO leads Momentum by 61 points; TSM leads Risk Resilience by 44 points; TSM leads Quality by 26 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, TSM or USO?
Analyst price targets imply +36.4% upside for TSM and +57.8% for USO, so the Street currently favors USO. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, TSM or USO?
Neither name separates on the peer-relative Value factor. The two are level on Value. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, TSM or USO?
Growth figures are not covered for both names. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, TSM or USO?
USO on the Momentum factor, by 61 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, TSM or USO?
TSM is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. TSM on Risk Resilience, by 44 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is TSM more profitable than USO?
Margin data is not comparable for both names in the current snapshot.
Is USO's lead over TSM getting stronger or weaker?
USO lead: Reversed — TSM led by 21 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; USO now leads by 7. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has changed hands 11 times in that window, most recently on 2026-10-15, when USO moved ahead of TSM.
What would change the TSM vs USO verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: TSM closes the Momentum gap — currently 61 points behind, the largest single contributor to USO's edge; TSM's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it; USO's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 5 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about TSM and USO?
TSM: 1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. USO: 5 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on TSM is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On USO it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.