UNH vs XLV Stock Comparison
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated vs State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF
XLV leads
XLV leads by 14 AIQ points, primarily on Quality and Momentum, but the lead has narrowed from 22 points over 30 sessions.
Fragile: 2 of 4 evidence groups support XLV, its lead is narrowing, and its current signal state is conflicted.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors XLV over UNH, 62 versus 48 as of Sep 2, 2026. XLV's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality and momentum. XLV also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 2 of 4 covered evidence groups favor XLV today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: only 2 of 4 covered evidence groups agree. XLV lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 22 to 14 points over 30 sessions.
Compare UnitedHealth Group Incorporated and State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Quality30%44 vs 71XLV +27
- Momentum25%39 vs 65XLV +26
- Value30%53 vs 50Even
- Risk Resilience15%60 vs 61Even
2 of 4 evidence groups favor XLV. XLV’s edge is concentrated in quality and momentum.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-01, compared against the prior scored session 2026-08-31.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
Largest factor move: Value +1
No new signals fired.
XLV's lead widened by 1 AIQ points in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — UNH and XLV both carry a full feed there.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
XLVXLV on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value at 30% each.
Growth
EvenGrowth figures are not covered for both names.
Value
EvenThe two are level on Value.
Momentum
XLVXLV on the Momentum factor, by 26 points.
Lower downside
XLVXLV carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility.
Analyst upside
EvenAnalyst targets are level or not covered for both names.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | UNH | XLV | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +17.5% | — | Level |
| Target dispersion | +33.3% | — | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | — | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 18 | — | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
2 of 4 covered evidence groups favor XLV. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | XLV | 48 vs 62 |
| Fundamentals | Not covered | Not covered |
| Valuation | Even | Value 53 vs 50 |
| Technicals | XLV | Price vs 50-day -3.3% vs 5.4%; vs 200-day 11.2% vs 10% |
| Risk Resilience | Even | Risk Resilience 60 vs 61 |
| Analyst expectations | Not covered | Not covered |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of UNH and XLV and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is wide at 14 points. (supports the conclusion holding)
- Only 2 of 4 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's advantage has been narrowing. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on XLV.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Apr 20 – Sep 1XLV lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 22 to 14 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- XLV +14
- 48 vs 62
- 7 sessions ago
- XLV +15
- 48 vs 63
- 30 sessions ago
- XLV +22
- 43 vs 65
- 90 sessions ago
- XLV +3
- 58 vs 61
The lead changed hands 3 times in this window, most recently on Jul 25 when XLV moved ahead of UNH.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (17.86%)
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
3 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (5.93%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
XLV leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +0.66%, AIQ 0 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +0.79%, AIQ +1 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1UNH closes the Quality gap — currently 27 points behind, the largest single contributor to XLV's edge.
- 2UNH's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it.
- 3XLV's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 3 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4The narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 8 points over 30 sessions, and a further 14-point move would eliminate XLV's advantage entirely.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
Split| Metric | UNH | XLV |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 0.3% | — |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -12.3% | — |
| Gross margin | 22.5% | — |
| Operating margin | 4.8% | — |
| Return on equity | 14.4% | — |
| Debt to equity | 0.7 | — |
Technicals
XLV has the stronger structure| Metric | UNH | XLV |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 39.6 | 55.9 |
| ADX (14) | 25.2 | 28.6 |
| Price vs 50-day | -3.3% | 5.4% |
| Price vs 200-day | 11.2% | 10% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 20.6% | 18.9% |
Risk
Split| Metric | UNH | XLV |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.79 | 1.24 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.96 | 2.52 |
| Max drawdown | -30% | -10.8% |
| Current drawdown | -10.8% | -2.9% |
| Annualized volatility | 35.6% | 16% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -2.3% | -1.4% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, UNH or XLV?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, XLV is the stronger of the two as of Sep 2, 2026, scoring 62 against UNH's 48. The edge comes from quality and momentum. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is UNH or XLV the better buy right now?
XLV carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 2, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 2 of 4 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: only 2 of 4 covered evidence groups agree. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor XLV over UNH?
The composite weights Quality at 30%, Value at 30%, Momentum at 25% and Risk Resilience at 15%. XLV leads Quality by 27 points; XLV leads Momentum by 26 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, UNH or XLV?
Analyst price targets imply +17.5% upside for UNH and not covered for XLV. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, UNH or XLV?
Neither name separates on the peer-relative Value factor. The two are level on Value. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, UNH or XLV?
Growth figures are not covered for both names. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, UNH or XLV?
XLV on the Momentum factor, by 26 points. Momentum carries 25% of the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, UNH or XLV?
XLV is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. XLV carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility. The Risk Resilience factor weights 15% of the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is UNH more profitable than XLV?
Margin data is not comparable for both names in the current snapshot.
Is XLV's lead over UNH getting stronger or weaker?
XLV lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 22 to 14 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-04-20 and 2026-09-01. The lead has changed hands 3 times in that window, most recently on 2026-07-25, when XLV moved ahead of UNH.
What would change the UNH vs XLV verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: UNH closes the Quality gap — currently 27 points behind, the largest single contributor to XLV's edge; UNH's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it; XLV's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 3 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; the narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 8 points over 30 sessions, and a further 14-point move would eliminate XLV's advantage entirely.
What do the current signals say about UNH and XLV?
UNH: 1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. XLV: 3 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on UNH is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On XLV it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare UNH and XLV with others
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality (30%), Value (30%), Momentum (25%) and Risk (15%). Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.