XOM vs XLE Stock Comparison
Exxon Mobil Corporation vs State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF
XLE leads
XLE leads by 16 AIQ points, primarily on Quality and Value, and the lead has widened from 11 points over 30 sessions.
Competitive: 3 of 4 evidence groups support XLE, its lead is widening, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Exxon Mobil Corporation
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors XLE over XOM, 67 versus 51 as of Sep 2, 2026. XLE's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality and value, while XOM holds the stronger risk resilience profile. XLE also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 3 of 4 covered evidence groups favor XLE today, and the comparison is rated Competitive on stability: the leader is throwing conflicting signals. XLE lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 11 to 16 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Exxon Mobil Corporation and State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Quality30%52 vs 75XLE +23
- Value30%43 vs 64XLE +21
- Momentum25%61 vs 78XLE +17
- Risk Resilience15%51 vs 38XOM +13
3 of 4 evidence groups favor XLE. XLE’s edge is concentrated in quality and value; XOM keeps a meaningful risk resilience edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-01, compared against the prior scored session 2026-08-31.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
XLE's lead was unchanged in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — XOM and XLE both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
XLE (State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality and value.
XOM (Exxon Mobil Corporation): the counter-case, on risk resilience.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
XLEXLE on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value at 30% each.
Growth
EvenGrowth figures are not covered for both names.
Value
XLEXLE on the peer-relative Value factor, by 21 points.
Momentum
XLEXLE on the Momentum factor, by 17 points.
Lower downside
XOMXOM on Risk Resilience, by 13 points.
Analyst upside
EvenAnalyst targets are level or not covered for both names.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | XOM | XLE | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +6.4% | — | Level |
| Target dispersion | +18.5% | — | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | — | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 12 | — | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 4 covered evidence groups favor XLE. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | XLE | 51 vs 67 |
| Fundamentals | Not covered | Not covered |
| Valuation | XLE | Value 43 vs 64 |
| Technicals | XLE | Price vs 50-day 8% vs 11.2%; vs 200-day 11.9% vs 17.5% |
| Risk Resilience | XOM | Risk Resilience 51 vs 38 |
| Analyst expectations | Not covered | Not covered |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of XOM and XLE and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The two are close enough that your objective, not the score, should decide.
- The AIQ gap is wide at 16 points. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader's advantage has been widening. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on XLE.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Apr 20 – Sep 1XLE lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 11 to 16 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- XLE +16
- 51 vs 67
- 7 sessions ago
- XLE +15
- 52 vs 67
- 30 sessions ago
- XLE +11
- 54 vs 65
- 90 sessions ago
- XLE +8
- 43 vs 51
The lead changed hands 3 times in this window, most recently on Aug 8 when XLE moved ahead of XOM.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
3 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (4.97%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
5 bullish / 2 bearish, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (7.18%)
- Keltner Channel Breakout — bullish, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Overbought — bearish, momentum, short horizon
XLE leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -0.92%, AIQ 0 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +0.19%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1XOM closes the Quality gap — currently 23 points behind, the largest single contributor to XLE's edge.
- 2XOM generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as MACD Bullish Crossover.
- 3XLE's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 5 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
Split| Metric | XOM | XLE |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 37.7% | — |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 248% | — |
| Gross margin | 25.1% | — |
| Operating margin | 10.7% | — |
| Return on equity | 12.7% | — |
| Debt to equity | 0.16 | — |
Technicals
XLE has the stronger structure| Metric | XOM | XLE |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 52.3 | 72 |
| ADX (14) | 20.7 | 26 |
| Price vs 50-day | 8% | 11.2% |
| Price vs 200-day | 11.9% | 17.5% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 26.5% | 23.7% |
Risk
XOM is the more resilient| Metric | XOM | XLE |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.53 | -0.31 |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.35 | 1.56 |
| Sortino ratio | 2.04 | 2.41 |
| Max drawdown | -20.6% | -15.6% |
| Current drawdown | -6.1% | 0% |
| Annualized volatility | 25.7% | 21.8% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -2.6% | -2% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, XOM or XLE?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, XLE is the stronger of the two as of Sep 2, 2026, scoring 67 against XOM's 51. The edge comes from quality and value. XOM is not without a case — it holds the better risk resilience profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is XOM or XLE the better buy right now?
XLE carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 2, 2026, and the comparison is rated Competitive — 3 of 4 covered evidence groups agree. A Competitive rating means the two are close enough that your objective, not the score, should decide.
Why does the AIQ Score favor XLE over XOM?
The composite weights Quality at 30%, Value at 30%, Momentum at 25% and Risk Resilience at 15%. XLE leads Quality by 23 points; XLE leads Value by 21 points; XLE leads Momentum by 17 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, XOM or XLE?
Analyst price targets imply +6.4% upside for XOM and not covered for XLE. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, XOM or XLE?
XLE is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. XLE on the peer-relative Value factor, by 21 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, XOM or XLE?
Growth figures are not covered for both names. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, XOM or XLE?
XLE on the Momentum factor, by 17 points. Momentum carries 25% of the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, XOM or XLE?
XOM is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. XOM on Risk Resilience, by 13 points. The Risk Resilience factor weights 15% of the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is XOM more profitable than XLE?
Margin data is not comparable for both names in the current snapshot.
Is XLE's lead over XOM getting stronger or weaker?
XLE lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 11 to 16 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-04-20 and 2026-09-01. The lead has changed hands 3 times in that window, most recently on 2026-08-08, when XLE moved ahead of XOM.
What would change the XOM vs XLE verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: XOM closes the Quality gap — currently 23 points behind, the largest single contributor to XLE's edge; XOM generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as MACD Bullish Crossover; XLE's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 5 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about XOM and XLE?
XOM: 3 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. XLE: 5 bullish / 2 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on XOM is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On XLE it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare XOM and XLE with others
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality (30%), Value (30%), Momentum (25%) and Risk (15%). Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.