Newmont Q3 2026 Earnings: Record Adjusted Profit as Higher Metal Prices Offset Lower Year-Over-Year Production

Newmont reported Q3 revenue of $6.36B, up 15% from a year earlier, while GAAP diluted EPS rose to $2.35 from $1.67. Adjusted net income reached a third-quarter record of $2.20 per diluted share, supported by a realized gold price of $4,317 per ounce and stronger copper and silver pricing.

The quarter reinforced Newmont’s cash-generation capacity in a high-price environment, even as attributable gold production remained below the prior-year level. The more important change for investors is forward-looking: Newmont improved its 2026 cost outlook, expects production growth to resume in 2027, and is preparing for a potentially large capital commitment to the Red Chris block cave project.

As Reported on the Call

The Bigger Story

Newmont’s Q3 earnings were driven more by metal prices and co-product credits than by a material production recovery. Gold output of 1.302M attributable ounces was essentially flat sequentially and lower than the 1.421M ounces produced in Q3 2025. Yet revenue rose 15% year over year because Newmont realized $4,317 per ounce of gold, compared with $3,539 per ounce a year earlier.

The portfolio is approaching an operational inflection point. Management expects Q4 to be the company’s strongest production quarter of 2026, followed by low-to-mid-single-digit percentage gold production growth in 2027. That outlook depends on planned grade improvements at Lihir, Boddington and Tanami, continued ramp-up at Ahafo North, and additional contributions from Cerro Negro and Yanacocha.

At the same time, Newmont is shifting from a period of portfolio simplification and capital returns toward a larger development agenda. The Red Chris block cave could become the company’s next major gold-copper project, but it would require $4.2B to $4.8B of development capital on a 100% basis, net of an anticipated Canadian government contribution. A full-funds investment decision is expected in early 2027, subject to final feasibility work and joint-venture approvals.

Revenue and Operating Performance

Revenue increased to $6.36B from $5.52B in the prior-year quarter. Gold sales rose 12% to $5.23B despite consolidated gold ounces sold declining to 1.211M from 1.319M. The average realized gold price increased 22% year over year, offsetting lower sales volumes.

Other metals also contributed meaningfully. Silver sales increased 88% year over year to $550M, while zinc sales rose 35% to $258M. Copper sales declined 10% to $288M because copper volumes sold fell to 18,000 tonnes from 31,000 tonnes a year earlier, although realized copper prices increased to $6.91 per pound from $4.67.

Gold production improved modestly from Q2, led by Cadia’s recovery after the Q2 seismic event, productivity gains and higher development rates at Brucejack, and better throughput, grades and recoveries at Peñasquito. Those gains were partly offset by planned maintenance at Lihir and Boddington and mine-plan sequencing at Yanacocha.

Cadia produced 61,000 attributable gold ounces and 13,000 tonnes of copper during the quarter, recovering from its Q2 disruption but remaining below prior-year production. Peñasquito produced 46,000 gold ounces, 11M ounces of silver, 22,000 tonnes of lead and 67,000 tonnes of zinc. Its unusually large co-product contribution remains an important influence on Newmont’s by-product cost metrics.

Lihir produced 135,000 ounces, up from 113,000 ounces in Q1 but below its 157,000-ounce Q2 output as the mine completed planned maintenance. Management expects Lihir to access higher-grade ore in Q4, although water availability could become a risk if El Niño conditions intensify.

Profitability and Margins

Newmont generated $2.48B of GAAP net income, or $2.35 per diluted share, up from $2.20B, or $2.06 per share, in Q2. The sequential improvement reflected higher gold sales volumes, higher realized copper prices and a $113M decrease in income and mining tax expense.

Adjusted net income was $2.31B, or $2.20 per diluted share, compared with $2.25B, or $2.10 per share, in Q2. The gap between GAAP and adjusted earnings primarily reflected $116M of reclamation and remediation charges, partly offset by a $40M gain on asset and investment sales. Newmont also adjusted for tax-related items, including valuation allowance and other tax adjustments.

The cost performance was stronger sequentially. Gold by-product CAS fell 20% to $832 per ounce, while by-product AISC declined 10% to $1,454 per ounce. Higher gold and co-product volumes, together with stronger copper prices, drove the improvement. Lower silver prices and higher diesel prices partly offset those benefits.

The by-product measure, however, illustrates Newmont’s sensitivity to co-product output and pricing. At Peñasquito, high silver, lead and zinc volumes created substantial credits, producing negative by-product AISC for the site. This benefit will weaken in Q4 as silver production at Peñasquito is expected to fall to about half of Q3 volume.

What is Newmont’s guidance for Q4 and full-year 2026?

Newmont reaffirmed its 2026 attributable gold production guidance of 5.26M ounces, with Q4 production expected to reach 1.365M ounces. Management expects this to be the strongest quarter of the year, supported by higher-grade ore at Tanami and Lihir, continued Ahafo North ramp-up, and productivity improvements and open-pit ore from the Vein Zone at Cerro Negro.

The company improved its full-year unit-cost outlook:

The improved full-year cost guidance reflects year-to-date execution and stronger realized co-product pricing. Still, Q4 AISC is expected to increase sharply to $1,900 per ounce because of higher sustaining capital spending, lower co-product volumes and inflationary pressures.

Management also expects 2027 attributable gold production to increase by a low-to-mid-single-digit percentage from 2026. Lihir, Boddington, Tanami Expansion 2, Cerro Negro and Yanacocha are expected to be the principal contributors.

The cost outlook for 2027 is less favorable. Management expects unit costs to trend higher as inflation exceeds the 3% assumption embedded in 2026 guidance, diesel prices remain elevated, the Australian dollar creates currency pressure, and Peñasquito’s silver, lead and zinc production declines. Peñasquito silver output is expected to be roughly 30% lower in 2027 than in 2026 under the mine plan.

Balance Sheet, Cash Flow and Capital

Newmont generated $2.77B of operating cash flow and $1.91B of free cash flow during Q3. Free cash flow declined from $2.21B in Q2 because operating cash flow fell and capital investment rose to $879M.

Working capital was a $565M use of cash, mainly reflecting a $318M increase in receivables, $256M of reclamation spending related to previously accrued activities, and $172M of inventory and stockpile builds. Management said some of the Q3 working-capital movements could reverse as shipment, collection and payment patterns normalize.

The balance sheet remains a major source of flexibility. Newmont ended Q3 with $8.83B of cash, $12.8B of total liquidity and a net cash position of $3.24B. That figure excludes the planned $1.95B payment to Barrick associated with the amended Nevada Gold Mines agreement, which is expected to close in Q4.

Newmont repurchased $1.6B of stock since its prior earnings update, including about $451M in October through the filing date. The company has repurchased more than 115M shares since February 2024, reducing its share count by about 10%. The current $6B authorization had $2.8B remaining.

The company also declared a Q3 dividend of $0.26 per share, payable December 21. Management said the existing repurchase activity could support a $0.27 quarterly dividend at the next annual review, although any increase remains subject to board approval.

Red Chris Becomes the Key Long-Term Capital Decision

Red Chris is moving toward a full-funds decision in early 2027. The project would transition the existing British Columbia operation from open-pit mining to a block cave and expand processing capacity to 15M tonnes per year.

The first phase is expected to produce 3M ounces of gold and more than 850,000 tonnes of copper over an initial 13-year cave life. Commercial production is targeted for 2033, with expected annual output of 275,000 to 325,000 gold ounces and 65,000 to 85,000 tonnes of copper from 2035 through 2040.

Newmont estimates development capital at $4.2B to $4.8B on a 100% basis, stated in real terms and net of an anticipated C$500M contribution from the Canadian government. Newmont owns 70% of Red Chris and expects to fund its share through internal cash flow if the project is approved.

Management said the revised plan incorporates more detailed geotechnical work, a larger 15M-tonne-per-year plant versus the prior 9M-tonne concept, updated underground infrastructure design and current development-cost assumptions. The company expects the initial project to meet its double-digit internal rate of return threshold, but the project remains subject to final technical review, funding terms and joint-venture board approval.

What Investors Should Watch

1. Q4 Production Delivery and Lihir Water Conditions

Newmont’s full-year production target depends on a 1.365M-ounce Q4. Lihir’s planned access to higher-grade ore is an important part of that outlook, but El Niño-related water constraints could affect processing and costs.

2. The Q4 Cost Step-Up

Management expects Q4 AISC of $1,900 per ounce, well above the Q3 level of $1,454. Investors should assess whether the increase is limited to planned capital spending and lower co-product credits or signals broader operating-cost pressure.

3. 2027 Production Growth Versus Higher Unit Costs

The return to low-to-mid-single-digit production growth would validate Newmont’s operating portfolio after the 2026 production trough. But investors will also need to weigh that growth against management’s expectation for higher costs from inflation, diesel, currency and lower Peñasquito credits.

4. Red Chris Capital Discipline

A 2027 investment decision would establish a long-duration gold-copper growth project but also increase development spending. The final capital estimate, funding structure, expected returns and execution schedule will determine whether Red Chris strengthens the long-term portfolio without reducing financial flexibility.

5. Nevada Gold Mines Transaction Closing

The amended Nevada Gold Mines agreement adds Barrick’s Fourmile asset and Newmont’s Fiberline and Mike properties to the joint venture. The $1.95B payment will reduce Newmont’s net cash balance in Q4, while the long-term value depends on whether the revised governance structure improves district-level planning and development.

AlgovestIQ Takeaway

Newmont produced a strong financial quarter, but the earnings story was largely a cash-flow and pricing story rather than one of substantial volume growth. Revenue, earnings and free cash flow remained robust because realized gold prices were 22% above the prior-year level and co-product sales were especially strong at Peñasquito.

The company’s improved 2026 cost guidance is constructive. Q3 AISC declined meaningfully from Q2, and Newmont remains positioned to meet its annual production and capital targets. Its net cash balance and liquidity also provide capacity to continue dividends, buybacks and project investment.

The less favorable near-term signal is that Q4 costs are expected to rise sharply, while 2027 unit costs are expected to increase further. The portfolio’s reported by-product costs benefit materially from silver, copper, lead and zinc credits, so lower Peñasquito co-product volumes or weaker metals pricing could reduce this support.

The central investment question is whether Newmont can convert its broad asset base into sustainable production growth without allowing capital intensity and operating costs to erode the benefit of higher gold prices. Delivering the expected Q4 production increase, stabilizing Lihir, bringing Tanami Expansion 2 into production on schedule, and defining a disciplined Red Chris investment plan would strengthen that case. Delays, cost escalation or a weaker co-product contribution would make the 2027 growth outlook more difficult to translate into per-share free-cash-flow growth.