BTC vs SPY: Performance, Holdings, Fees & Risk
BTC and SPY are ETFs, but they can differ materially in exposure, yield, fees and risk. BTC is Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF, while SPY is State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF. SPY has the lower expense ratio. Current AlgovestIQ evidence has SPY ahead on AIQ Score, 66 versus 56.
| Metric | BTC | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| Fund | ||
| Expense ratio | 0.15% | 0.09% |
| Holdings | 1 | 505 |
| Average volume | 1,756,341 | 46,698,705 |
| Performance | ||
| 1Y return | -23.9% | +16.4% |
| YTD return | -5.8% | +12.8% |
| Risk | ||
| Annualized volatility | 45% | 12.8% |
| Max drawdown (1Y) | -48.4% | -9.1% |
| Beta | 1.76 | 1.00 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.43 | 0.91 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.68 | 1.39 |
| AlgovestIQ | ||
| AIQ Score | 56/100 | 66/100 |
| AIQ Edge Score | 6/10 | 9/10 |
| Momentum | 57/100 | 63/100 |
| Risk Resilience | 50/100 | 88/100 |
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF vs State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF
SPY leads
SPY leads by 10 AIQ points, primarily on Risk Resilience and Quality.
Fragile: 2 of 3 evidence groups support SPY, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors SPY over BTC, 66 versus 56 as of Oct 21, 2026. SPY's advantage is driven primarily by stronger risk resilience and quality. SPY also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 2 of 3 covered evidence groups favor SPY today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the leader is throwing conflicting signals. SPY lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 10 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF across performance, expense ratio, dividend yield, drawdown, volatility and the Algovestiq AIQ Score.
BTC vs SPY: which fits what
Each row is settled by a single measure. Where the gap is too small to matter it reads Similar, and no row decides the comparison as a whole.
| If you want | BTC | SPY | Fits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lower costExpense ratio | 0.15% | 0.09% | SPY |
| Smaller drawdownsMax drawdown, 1 year | -48.4% | -9.1% | SPY |
| Lower volatilityAnnualized volatility, 1 year | 45% | 12.8% | SPY |
Similar means the gap is within 0.01 percentage points of expense ratio, 25% more holdings, 3 points of top-10 weight, 0.2 points of yield, 2 points of drawdown or 1 point of volatility. Past drawdowns and volatility describe the funds’ history, not their future.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes for both ETFs.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare BTC and SPY against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Risk Resilience50 vs 88SPY +38
- Quality58 vs 84SPY +26
- Momentum57 vs 63SPY +6
2 of 3 evidence groups favor SPY. SPY’s edge is concentrated in risk resilience and quality.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum +3
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 5 active signals are unchanged.
Largest factor move: Momentum +16
New signals
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
SPY's lead widened by 3 AIQ points in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — BTC and SPY both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF): the stronger current systematic profile, led by risk resilience and quality.
BTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF): the counter-case, on technicals — but at materially higher volatility, 21.6% against 9%.
Fund facts, side by side
Two funds tracking overlapping universes are separated by cost and risk far more than by holdings. Those lead here.
| Measure | BTC | SPY | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expense ratio | 0.15% | 0.09% | Lower is better — it compounds against you every year you hold. |
| Holdings | 1 | 505 | More holdings means broader diversification, not better returns. |
| Average volume | 1,756,341 | 46,698,705 | Liquidity — matters most if you trade size. |
| Annualized volatility | 45% | 12.8% | Lower is a steadier ride for the same exposure. |
| Max drawdown (1Y) | -48.4% | -9.1% | The worst peak-to-trough loss over the past year. |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.43 | 0.91 | Return per unit of risk. Higher is better. |
| Beta | 1.76 | 1.00 | Sensitivity to the broad market. Neither direction is better — it depends on the role in your portfolio. |
AIQ Agreement Matrix
2 of 3 covered evidence groups favor SPY. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | SPY | 56 vs 66 |
| Fundamentals | Not covered | Not covered |
| Valuation | Not covered | Not covered |
| Technicals | BTC | Price vs 50-day 7.5% vs 0.6%; vs 200-day 11.9% vs 5.9% |
| Risk Resilience | SPY | Risk Resilience 50 vs 88 |
| Analyst expectations | Not covered | Not covered |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of BTC and SPY and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 10 points.
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on SPY.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20SPY lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 10 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- SPY +10
- 56 vs 66
- 7 sessions ago
- SPY +14
- 52 vs 66
- 30 sessions ago
- SPY +8
- 58 vs 66
- 90 sessions ago
- SPY +10
- 60 vs 70
The lead changed hands 2 times in this window, most recently on Aug 24 when BTC moved ahead of SPY.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
3 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only BTC
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
4 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only SPY
- ATR Contraction - Coiling — neutral, volatility, short horizon (0.92%)
- 52-Week High Proximity — bullish, risk, long horizon (1.2%)
Both carry 4 more signals that do not separate them: Golden Cross Active, EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish, Uptrend Structure Active, MACD Bearish Crossover.
SPY leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +2.38%, AIQ +1 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +0.53%, AIQ +4 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1BTC closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 38 points behind, the largest single contributor to SPY's edge.
- 2BTC's Bollinger Band Squeeze turns directional — it is neutral today and would confirm a change in trend.
- 3SPY's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 4 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Performance
Split across windows| Metric | BTC | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -0.8% | -1.2% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -4.3% | -0.6% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 25.2% | 2.9% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 9.9% | 9.2% |
| Year to date | -5.8% | 12.8% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -23.9% | 16.4% |
Technicals
BTC has the stronger structure| Metric | BTC | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 45.7 | 56.2 |
| ADX (14) | 22.1 | 12.5 |
| Price vs 50-day | 7.5% | 0.6% |
| Price vs 200-day | 11.9% | 5.9% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 21.6% | 9% |
Risk
SPY is the more resilient| Metric | BTC | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.76 | 1 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.43 | 0.91 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.68 | 1.39 |
| Max drawdown | -48.4% | -9.1% |
| Current drawdown | -27.5% | -1.3% |
| Annualized volatility | 45% | 12.8% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -4% | -1.4% |
Straight answers
Short answers to the questions fund investors ask about this pair, from the figures above.
Which has the lower expense ratio?
SPY has the lower expense ratio, 0.09% a year against 0.15% for BTC.
Which ETF has been more volatile?
BTC has been more volatile over the past year, at 45% annualized against 12.8% for SPY.
Which ETF has had the smaller drawdown?
SPY fell less from peak to trough over the past year: -9.1% against -48.4% for BTC.
Compare BTC and SPY with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.