ETF Analysis
Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF (BTC) ETF Analysis
Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF (BTC) ETF analysis covering performance, holdings context, risk, drawdowns, volatility, momentum, dividends, valuation exposure, and the current AlgovestIQ assessment.
Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF (BTC) currently has an AIQ Score of 57/100, indicating a neutral setup. Momentum is the strongest factor at 60/100. Risk is the weakest current factor at 50/100. Performance, momentum, risk, distribution, and exposure evidence should be read together at the latest market-close snapshot.
BTC at a Glance
Crawlable current metrics from the latest market-close ETF snapshot.
| Metric | Current |
|---|---|
| Price | $37.35 |
| AIQ Score | 57/100 |
| Overall View | Neutral |
| Technical Analysis Consensus | Strong Buy |
| Fund Size | $5.2B |
| Expense Ratio | 0.15% |
| Holdings Count | 1 |
| NAV | $36.46 |
| Asset Class | Alternatives |
| Primary Exposure | — |
| Issuer | Grayscale |
| Domicile | US |
| Inception Date | Jul 31, 2024 |
| Distribution Yield | — |
| Beta | 1.58 |
| Average Volume | 1.76M |
| 52-week range | $25.65-$51.43 |
| RSI 14 | 49.24 |
| 50-Day SMA | $34.92 |
| 200-Day SMA | $32.57 |
| Risk Score | 50/100 |
| Momentum Score | 60/100 |
| Value Exposure Score | — |
BTC Long-Horizon ETF Performance
Trailing returns, growth of $10,000, drawdown history, and calendar-year returns from available daily closes.
| Period | Total return | Annualized | Max drawdown | Start date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | -25.70% | -25.72% | -48.42% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| 3Y | 26.02% | 10.98% | -53.30% | Jul 31, 2024 |
| 5Y | 26.02% | 10.98% | -53.30% | Jul 31, 2024 |
| 10Y | 26.02% | 10.98% | -53.30% | Jul 31, 2024 |
Growth of $10,000
Indexed to the first available close in this history window.
Drawdown History
Peak-to-trough decline from each prior high over the available window.
Calendar-Year Returns
Full-year returns where available, with the current calendar year shown as YTD.
BTCGrayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF
Financial Services / Asset Management - Cryptocurrency
Low Priority
Above Peers
Latest quote
- Momentum60
- Value—
- Quality58
- Risk resilience50
- Sentiment—
BTC ETF Analysis Summary
Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF (BTC) currently has an AIQ Score of 57/100, indicating a neutral setup. Momentum is the strongest factor at 60/100. Risk resilience is the weakest current factor at 50/100. Performance, exposure, distribution, momentum, and risk evidence should be read together at the latest market-close snapshot.
In a neutral regime, BTC has AIQ Score of 57/100 with Momentum base of 60/100 and fading Risk resilience at 50/100. Wait for component alignment before adding exposure.
Financial Services · 2.38% ETF move · BTC classified in Asset Management - Cryptocurrency.
Current Evidence
AlgovestIQ Evidence Summary
Current consensus, supporting evidence, recent changes, and what would strengthen or weaken the view.
Is BTC Bullish or Bearish Right Now?
BTC currently has a neutral overall setup. Momentum is the strongest factor at 60/100, while Risk Resilience is weakest at 50/100. The current evidence suggests a mixed rather than strongly bullish or bearish setup.
- - Momentum is constructive at 60/100.
- - Price is +6.95% above its 50-day SMA.
- - Technical consensus has more buy votes than sell votes (32 vs 6).
- - No strong bearish evidence is available in the current snapshot.
Current Consensus
BTC's Technical Analysis Consensus is currently Strong Buy, with 32 buy, 7 neutral, and 6 sell votes. BTC's 14-day RSI is 49.24, which places the ETF in a neutral momentum range. BTC's beta is 1.58, indicating greater market sensitivity than the broad market.
What Changed in BTC?
The largest recent change in BTC is Risk Resilience moving up by 11.0 points over the available 7-day comparison window. Momentum remains the strongest visible factor.
What Would Change the BTC Outlook?
The current neutral outlook could improve if AIQ moves above 70, momentum recovers, risk resilience improves, and price confirms a stronger trend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. It would weaken if AIQ falls below 40, price loses long-term moving-average support, distribution or liquidity context deteriorates, or risk evidence worsens.
AIQ > 70, RSI above 55, price above SMA-50/SMA-200, and positive market-context evidence.
AIQ below 40, RSI below 45, loss of SMA-200, negative revisions, or rising volatility and drawdown risk.
BTC Decision Framework
Public evidence layers, setup checks, and risk context for Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF.
Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF (BTC) ETF Analysis
Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF has an AIQ Score of 57/100 in a Neutral regime. Momentum is strongest at 60/100. Beta is 1.58, above market sensitivity. Review the supporting etf factors together before drawing a conclusion from any single score.
| Evidence Layer | Public Evidence |
|---|---|
| Regime Context | BTC is in a Neutral AIQ regime with score 57/100. |
| Signal Conflict | The primary conflict is that momentum leads at 60/100 while risk lags at 50/100. |
| Factor Evidence | Momentum 60/100 · Quality 58/100 · Risk 50/100 |
| Persistence | Current snapshot evidence is shown; historical persistence remains in AIQ Pro. |
Current Setup Checklist
Momentum is the strongest factor at 60/100.
Momentum is 60/100 and RSI (14) is 49.2.
BTC is in a Neutral regime at 57/100.
Risk factor is 50/100 with beta 1.58 and annual volatility 44.86%.
Current conflict: momentum leads at 60/100 while risk lags at 50/100.
BTC Research Cluster
ETF-specific paths for performance, risk, distributions, market context, data, comparisons, and news.
BTC ETF Analytics
BTC holdings context, yield, risk, valuation exposure, momentum, and AIQ evidence.
BTC Technical Analysis
BTC technical setup based on RSI, MACD, moving averages, AIQ Momentum, volume, trend, volatility, and pivots.
BTC ETF Market Context
Track BTC market context, news pressure, trend changes, income events, and current allocation evidence.
BTC Distribution Analysis
BTC distribution yield, annualized distributions, payment history, and income context.
BTC ETF Data
BTC available fund data, market metrics, technical readings, risk measures, and AIQ evidence.
BTC Risk Analysis
BTC volatility, beta, drawdown, Sharpe ratio, VaR, and downside resilience.
BTC ETF News
BTC ETF news, market tone, recent headlines, and catalyst context.
BTC vs ₿ Crypto ETFs Peers
Current peer cohort: BTC · ETH · ETHA · ETHE · FIAT. Compare AIQ, factor scores, Sharpe ratio and 1-year volatility in one indexable view.
| Peer | AIQ | Value | Momentum | Risk | Sharpe | 1Y Volatility | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC Current ETF | 57/100 | — | 60/100 | 50/100 | -0.48 | 44.86% | Current |
| ETH Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust ETF | 43/100 | 23/100 | 47/100 | 47/100 | -0.48 | 62.29% | BTC vs ETH |
| ETHA iShares Ethereum Trust ETF | 50/100 | — | 46/100 | 23/100 | -0.5 | 62.67% | BTC vs ETHA |
| ETHE Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF | 46/100 | 34/100 | 47/100 | 43/100 | -0.55 | 62.24% | BTC vs ETHE |
| FIAT YieldMax Short COIN Option Income Strategy ETF | 34/100 | — | 48/100 | 11/100 | -0.55 | 58.45% | BTC vs FIAT |
Peer cohort is resolved dynamically from the AlgovestIQ universe taxonomy and Compare relationship graph. Data as of Oct 21, 2026.
About the AIQ Score
Methodology for the current ETF evidence.
The AlgovestIQ AIQ Score combines multiple dimensions of ETF evidence, including momentum, valuation exposure, quality, risk resilience, sentiment context, and timing signals. It is a descriptive research score, not a guarantee of future performance or a personalized recommendation.
View AIQ methodologyFactor Diagnostics
A compact bridge from the AIQ score to the evidence tabs.
Valuation exposure across the fund's holdings.
Quality context inferred from fund exposure and available evidence.
Trend, momentum, volume, and timing confirmation.
Resilience, volatility, beta, drawdown, and tail risk.
News and event pressure around the setup.
Open the return calculator with ETF context while purchase price, shares, dates and fees remain user inputs.
AIQ Component Profile
Compare the five component scores on one consistent 0–100 scale.
Review earnings timing, revisions, news pressure, and prior event reactions in one place.
Open catalystsNo quarterly financial rows in this snapshot.
Checked Oct 22, 2026
Explore factor drivers, conflicts, persistence, and scenario sensitivity in the advanced workspace.
ETF Analytics Snapshot
Current ETF evidence uses fund profile, cost, size, distribution, momentum, and risk fields.
ETF pages use fund-native profile fields for cost, size, liquidity, holdings breadth, NAV, issuer, and launch date.
Market Confirmation
Technicals are summarized first, with the indicator library behind it.
Risk Alignment
Higher resilience is stronger; exposure metrics stay separate.
Continue Researching BTC
Open the detailed evidence pages and workflows behind the stock overview read.
Premium Feature
Full AIQ Analysis
AIQ Intelligence
AIQ Pro for BTC
Scenario Analysis
AIQ Scenario Builder
Portfolio Implication
Related Links
BTC ETF FAQ
What is BTC ETF price today?
BTC is currently shown at $37.35. Use the live quote with the 52-week range and AIQ context before comparing funds.
What is BTC's 52-week high and low?
BTC's 52-week range is $25.65 to $51.43 based on the latest completed market-close snapshot from Oct 21, 2026. A price near either extreme should be evaluated with volatility and trend evidence.
Does BTC pay a dividend?
If BTC has a distribution yield or dividend history in the current data, it appears on the dividends tab. For ETFs, dividend yield should be compared with expense ratio, holdings, and risk.
What should investors compare before buying BTC?
Compare BTC's price trend, expense profile, yield, holdings exposure, volatility, and AIQ signal. ETF decisions should focus on portfolio fit as much as current momentum.