COIN vs MSTR Stock Comparison
Coinbase Global, Inc. vs Strategy Inc
MSTR leads
MSTR leads by 5 AIQ points, primarily on Risk Resilience and Quality, but the lead has narrowed from 8 points over 30 sessions.
Fragile: 4 of 6 evidence groups support MSTR, its lead is narrowing, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Coinbase Global, Inc.
Strategy Inc
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors MSTR over COIN, 53 versus 48 as of Sep 2, 2026. MSTR's advantage is driven primarily by stronger risk resilience and quality. MSTR also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor MSTR today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 5 points. MSTR lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 8 to 5 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Coinbase Global, Inc. and Strategy Inc across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Risk Resilience15%27 vs 37MSTR +10
- Quality30%52 vs 58MSTR +6
- Momentum25%73 vs 78MSTR +5
- Value30%34 vs 34Even
4 of 6 evidence groups favor MSTR. MSTR’s edge is concentrated in risk resilience and quality.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-01, compared against the prior scored session 2026-08-31.
Largest factor move: Momentum -9
No new signals fired.
Largest factor move: Momentum -6
No new signals fired.
MSTR's lead widened by 1 AIQ points in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — COIN and MSTR both carry a full feed there.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
MSTRMSTR on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value at 30% each.
Growth
MSTRMSTR on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
EvenThe two are level on Value.
Momentum
MSTRMSTR on the Momentum factor, by 5 points.
Lower downside
MSTRMSTR on Risk Resilience, by 10 points.
Analyst upside
MSTRMSTR on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | COIN | MSTR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +14% | +73.5% | MSTR has more room |
| Target dispersion | +116.7% | +105.3% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 19 | 9 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor MSTR. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | MSTR | 48 vs 53 |
| Fundamentals | Even | revenue growth -13.7% vs -1.6%; EPS growth 8.7% vs 37.1%; ROE -6.9% vs -60.8%; gross margin 79% vs 67.6% |
| Valuation | Even | Value 34 vs 34 |
| Technicals | MSTR | Price vs 50-day 9.7% vs 22%; vs 200-day -8.9% vs -10.8% |
| Risk Resilience | MSTR | Risk Resilience 27 vs 37 |
| Analyst expectations | MSTR | Target upside 14% vs 73.5% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of COIN and MSTR and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 5 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's advantage has been narrowing. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Analyst targets on the leader are widely dispersed. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on MSTR.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Apr 20 – Sep 1MSTR lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 8 to 5 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- MSTR +5
- 48 vs 53
- 7 sessions ago
- MSTR +3
- 52 vs 55
- 30 sessions ago
- MSTR +8
- 36 vs 44
- 90 sessions ago
- COIN +2
- 39 vs 37
The lead changed hands 5 times in this window, most recently on Jun 22 when COIN moved ahead of MSTR.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (20.50%)
- ATR Expansion - Breakout Mode — neutral, volatility, short horizon (6.34%)
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
1 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (38.73%)
- ATR Expansion - Breakout Mode — neutral, volatility, short horizon (6.45%)
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
MSTR leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -0.05%, AIQ -2 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved down over the latest session (price -1.39%, AIQ -1 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1COIN closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 10 points behind, the largest single contributor to MSTR's edge.
- 2COIN's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3MSTR's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4The narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 3 points over 30 sessions, and a further 5-point move would eliminate MSTR's advantage entirely.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
Split| Metric | COIN | MSTR |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -13.7% | -1.6% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 8.7% | 37.1% |
| Gross margin | 79% | 67.6% |
| Operating margin | -0.4% | -16.8% |
| Return on equity | -6.9% | -60.8% |
| Debt to equity | 0.51 | 0.15 |
Technicals
MSTR has the stronger structure| Metric | COIN | MSTR |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 61.7 | 66.3 |
| ADX (14) | 25 | 32.3 |
| Price vs 50-day | 9.7% | 22% |
| Price vs 200-day | -8.9% | -10.8% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 77.5% | 88.6% |
Risk
MSTR is the more resilient| Metric | COIN | MSTR |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.86 | 2.9 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.49 | -0.94 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.88 | -1.75 |
| Max drawdown | -63.6% | -77.1% |
| Current drawdown | -54.3% | -65.3% |
| Annualized volatility | 70.1% | 77.6% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -6.9% | -7.1% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, COIN or MSTR?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, MSTR is the stronger of the two as of Sep 2, 2026, scoring 53 against COIN's 48. The edge comes from risk resilience and quality. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is COIN or MSTR the better buy right now?
MSTR carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 2, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 4 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 5 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor MSTR over COIN?
The composite weights Quality at 30%, Value at 30%, Momentum at 25% and Risk Resilience at 15%. MSTR leads Risk Resilience by 10 points; MSTR leads Quality by 6 points; MSTR leads Momentum by 5 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, COIN or MSTR?
Analyst price targets imply +14% upside for COIN and +73.5% for MSTR, so the Street currently favors MSTR. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, COIN or MSTR?
Neither name separates on the peer-relative Value factor. The two are level on Value. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, COIN or MSTR?
MSTR on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, COIN or MSTR?
MSTR on the Momentum factor, by 5 points. Momentum carries 25% of the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, COIN or MSTR?
MSTR is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. MSTR on Risk Resilience, by 10 points. The Risk Resilience factor weights 15% of the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is COIN more profitable than MSTR?
COIN leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 79% vs 67.6%; operating margin -0.4% vs -16.8%; roe -6.9% vs -60.8%.
Is MSTR's lead over COIN getting stronger or weaker?
MSTR lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 8 to 5 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-04-20 and 2026-09-01. The lead has changed hands 5 times in that window, most recently on 2026-06-22, when COIN moved ahead of MSTR.
What would change the COIN vs MSTR verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: COIN closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 10 points behind, the largest single contributor to MSTR's edge; COIN's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; MSTR's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; the narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 3 points over 30 sessions, and a further 5-point move would eliminate MSTR's advantage entirely.
What do the current signals say about COIN and MSTR?
COIN: 1 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. MSTR: 1 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on COIN is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On MSTR it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare COIN and MSTR with others
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality (30%), Value (30%), Momentum (25%) and Risk (15%). Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.