ESTC vs TSM Stock Comparison
Compare ESTC and TSM across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between ESTC and TSM?
TSM leads the current stock comparison as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, with the clearest separation coming from momentum and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Elastic N.V. vs Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
TSM leads
TSM leads by 5 AIQ points, primarily on Momentum and Risk Resilience, having only recently taken the lead back from ESTC.
Fragile: 4 of 6 evidence groups support TSM, the lead recently changed hands, and its signal state is cleanly positive.
Elastic N.V.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors TSM over ESTC, 70 versus 65 as of Sep 11, 2026. TSM's advantage is driven primarily by stronger momentum and risk resilience, while ESTC holds the stronger value profile. TSM also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TSM today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 5 points. TSM lead: Reversed — ESTC led by 9 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; TSM now leads by 5.
Compare Elastic N.V. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare ESTC and TSM against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum56 vs 74TSM +18
- Risk Resilience54 vs 68TSM +14
- Value49 vs 42ESTC +7
- Quality95 vs 96Even
4 of 6 evidence groups favor TSM. TSM’s edge is concentrated in momentum and risk resilience; ESTC keeps a meaningful value edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-10, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-09.
Largest factor move: Momentum -2
No new signals fired.
Largest factor move: Momentum -8
No new signals fired.
TSM's lead narrowed by 1 AIQ points in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — ESTC and TSM both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited): the stronger current systematic profile, led by momentum and risk resilience.
ESTC (Elastic N.V.): the counter-case, on value, valuation, technicals — but at materially higher volatility, 95.3% against 27.3%.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
TSMTSM on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
TSMTSM on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
ESTCESTC on the peer-relative Value factor, by 7 points.
Momentum
TSMTSM on the Momentum factor, by 18 points.
Lower downside
TSMTSM on Risk Resilience, by 14 points.
Analyst upside
TSMTSM on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | ESTC | TSM | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | -3.1% | +32.2% | TSM has more room |
| Target dispersion | +87.9% | +38.4% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 10 | 7 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TSM. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | TSM | 65 vs 70 |
| Fundamentals | TSMon balance | revenue growth 6.1% vs 12%; EPS growth -103.8% vs 22.1%; TTM ROE 35.3% vs 39.3%; gross margin 75.5% vs 64.2%; operating margin -1.5% vs 56% — TSM takes 4 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | ESTC | Value 49 vs 42 |
| Technicals | ESTC | Price vs 50-day 13.3% vs 3.4%; vs 200-day 30.8% vs 14.1% |
| Risk Resilience | TSM | Risk Resilience 54 vs 68 |
| Analyst expectations | TSM | Target upside -3.1% vs 32.2% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of ESTC and TSM and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 5 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's signal state is cleanly positive. (supports the conclusion holding)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on TSM.
How the comparison changed
119 daily snapshots · May 4 – Sep 10TSM lead: Reversed — ESTC led by 9 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; TSM now leads by 5.
- Today
- TSM +5
- 65 vs 70
- 7 sessions ago
- ESTC +1
- 69 vs 68
- 30 sessions ago
- ESTC +9
- 72 vs 63
- 90 sessions ago
- ESTC +2
- 63 vs 61
The lead changed hands 7 times in this window, most recently on Sep 8 when TSM moved ahead of ESTC.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
3 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (15.29%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
4 bullish / 0 bearish
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (11.73%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
ESTC is conflicted, so the timing case there is weaker than the score alone suggests.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price and the AIQ Score both moved down over the latest session (price -0.11%, AIQ -1 points).
Price is up while the AIQ Score moved down 2 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price +1.22%, AIQ -2 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1ESTC closes the Momentum gap — currently 18 points behind, the largest single contributor to TSM's edge.
- 2ESTC generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as MACD Bullish Crossover.
- 3TSM's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
TSM leads on balance| Metric | ESTC | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 6.1% | 12% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -103.8% | 22.1% |
| Gross margin | 75.5% | 64.2% |
| Operating margin | -1.5% | 56% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 35.3% | 39.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.02 | 0.15 |
Performance
Split across windows| Metric | ESTC | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -6.8% | 3% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | 8.2% | -0.3% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 37.3% | 4.7% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 58% | 20.7% |
| Year to date | 10.7% | 40.9% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -9.6% | 73.2% |
Technicals
ESTC has the stronger structure| Metric | ESTC | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 47.9 | 57.7 |
| ADX (14) | 38 | 9.6 |
| Price vs 50-day | 13.3% | 3.4% |
| Price vs 200-day | 30.8% | 14.1% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 95.3% | 27.3% |
Risk
TSM is the more resilient| Metric | ESTC | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.94 | 2.17 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.06 | 1.43 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.09 | 2.31 |
| Max drawdown | -54.2% | -21.6% |
| Current drawdown | -16.4% | -10.4% |
| Annualized volatility | 57.4% | 40.4% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -5.3% | -4.1% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, ESTC or TSM?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, TSM is the stronger of the two as of Sep 11, 2026, scoring 70 against ESTC's 65. The edge comes from momentum and risk resilience. ESTC is not without a case — it holds the better value profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is ESTC or TSM the better buy right now?
TSM carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 11, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 4 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 5 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor TSM over ESTC?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. TSM leads Momentum by 18 points; TSM leads Risk Resilience by 14 points; ESTC leads Value by 7 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, ESTC or TSM?
Analyst price targets imply -3.1% upside for ESTC and +32.2% for TSM, so the Street currently favors TSM. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, ESTC or TSM?
ESTC is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. ESTC on the peer-relative Value factor, by 7 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, ESTC or TSM?
TSM on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, ESTC or TSM?
TSM on the Momentum factor, by 18 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, ESTC or TSM?
TSM is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. TSM on Risk Resilience, by 14 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is ESTC more profitable than TSM?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 75.5% vs 64.2%; operating margin -1.5% vs 56%; ttm roe 35.3% vs 39.3%. ESTC leads on one measure and TSM on two measures, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is TSM's lead over ESTC getting stronger or weaker?
TSM lead: Reversed — ESTC led by 9 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; TSM now leads by 5. This is measured from 119 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-05-04 and 2026-09-10. The lead has changed hands 7 times in that window, most recently on 2026-09-08, when TSM moved ahead of ESTC.
What would change the ESTC vs TSM verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: ESTC closes the Momentum gap — currently 18 points behind, the largest single contributor to TSM's edge; ESTC generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as MACD Bullish Crossover; TSM's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about ESTC and TSM?
ESTC: 3 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. TSM: 4 bullish / 0 bearish. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on ESTC is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On TSM it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare ESTC and TSM with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.