GBTC vs QQQ: Performance, Holdings, Fees & Risk
GBTC and QQQ are ETFs, but they can differ materially in exposure, yield, fees and risk. GBTC is Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF, while QQQ is Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1. QQQ has the lower expense ratio. Current AlgovestIQ evidence has GBTC ahead on AIQ Score, 59 versus 51.
| Metric | GBTC | QQQ |
|---|---|---|
| Fund | ||
| Expense ratio | 1.5% | 0.18% |
| Holdings | 1 | 107 |
| Average volume | 1,805,020 | 37,968,274 |
| Performance | ||
| 1Y return | -24.9% | +19.6% |
| YTD return | -6.8% | +16.8% |
| Risk | ||
| Annualized volatility | 45% | 19.9% |
| Max drawdown (1Y) | -48.9% | -12.2% |
| Beta | 1.76 | 1.45 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.47 | 0.77 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.73 | 1.20 |
| AlgovestIQ | ||
| AIQ Score | 59/100 | 51/100 |
| AIQ Edge Score | 7/10 | 4/10 |
| Momentum | 56/100 | 21/100 |
| Risk Resilience | 52/100 | 72/100 |
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF vs Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
GBTC leads
GBTC leads by 8 AIQ points, primarily on Momentum, having only recently taken the lead back from QQQ.
Fragile: 2 of 3 evidence groups support GBTC, the lead recently changed hands, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors GBTC over QQQ, 59 versus 51 as of Oct 21, 2026. GBTC's advantage is driven primarily by stronger momentum, while QQQ holds the stronger risk resilience profile. GBTC also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 2 of 3 covered evidence groups favor GBTC today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. GBTC lead: Reversed — QQQ led by 3 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; GBTC now leads by 8.
Compare Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF and Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 across performance, expense ratio, dividend yield, drawdown, volatility and the Algovestiq AIQ Score.
GBTC vs QQQ: which fits what
Each row is settled by a single measure. Where the gap is too small to matter it reads Similar, and no row decides the comparison as a whole.
| If you want | GBTC | QQQ | Fits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lower costExpense ratio | 1.5% | 0.18% | QQQ |
| Smaller drawdownsMax drawdown, 1 year | -48.9% | -12.2% | QQQ |
| Lower volatilityAnnualized volatility, 1 year | 45% | 19.9% | QQQ |
Similar means the gap is within 0.01 percentage points of expense ratio, 25% more holdings, 3 points of top-10 weight, 0.2 points of yield, 2 points of drawdown or 1 point of volatility. Past drawdowns and volatility describe the funds’ history, not their future.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes for both ETFs.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare GBTC and QQQ against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum56 vs 21GBTC +35
- Risk Resilience52 vs 72QQQ +20
- Quality65 vs 82QQQ +17
2 of 3 evidence groups favor GBTC. GBTC’s edge is concentrated in momentum; QQQ keeps a meaningful risk resilience edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum +3
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 5 active signals are unchanged.
Largest factor move: Momentum -2
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 3 active signals are unchanged.
GBTC's lead widened by 2 AIQ points in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — GBTC and QQQ both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF): the stronger current systematic profile, led by momentum.
QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1): the counter-case, on risk resilience, quality.
Fund facts, side by side
Two funds tracking overlapping universes are separated by cost and risk far more than by holdings. Those lead here.
| Measure | GBTC | QQQ | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expense ratio | 1.5% | 0.18% | Lower is better — it compounds against you every year you hold. |
| Holdings | 1 | 107 | More holdings means broader diversification, not better returns. |
| Average volume | 1,805,020 | 37,968,274 | Liquidity — matters most if you trade size. |
| Annualized volatility | 45% | 19.9% | Lower is a steadier ride for the same exposure. |
| Max drawdown (1Y) | -48.9% | -12.2% | The worst peak-to-trough loss over the past year. |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.47 | 0.77 | Return per unit of risk. Higher is better. |
| Beta | 1.76 | 1.45 | Sensitivity to the broad market. Neither direction is better — it depends on the role in your portfolio. |
GBTC vs QQQ: five-year payout growth
QQQ grew its split-adjusted payout at 9.99% a year over 2020-2025. GBTC has no 2020-2025 growth rate to compare.
| Dividend metric | GBTC | QQQ |
|---|---|---|
| Peer rank | not ranked | #56 of 138 |
Split-adjusted annual distributions, 2020–2025. Research as of Sep 19, 2026. Yield and expense ratio above are current values, not part of this window.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
2 of 3 covered evidence groups favor GBTC. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | GBTC | 59 vs 51 |
| Fundamentals | Not covered | Not covered |
| Valuation | Not covered | Not covered |
| Technicals | GBTC | Price vs 50-day 7.4% vs -0.2%; vs 200-day 11.3% vs 6.2% |
| Risk Resilience | QQQ | Risk Resilience 52 vs 72 |
| Analyst expectations | Not covered | Not covered |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of GBTC and QQQ and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 8 points.
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on GBTC.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20GBTC lead: Reversed — QQQ led by 3 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; GBTC now leads by 8.
- Today
- GBTC +8
- 59 vs 51
- 7 sessions ago
- QQQ +1
- 56 vs 57
- 30 sessions ago
- QQQ +3
- 62 vs 65
- 90 sessions ago
- QQQ +7
- 60 vs 67
The lead changed hands 5 times in this window, most recently on Oct 19 when GBTC moved ahead of QQQ.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
3 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only GBTC
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
1 bullish / 2 bearish, conflicted
Only QQQ
- Keltner Channel Breakdown — bearish, volatility, short horizon
Both carry 2 more signals that do not separate them: Golden Cross Active, MACD Bearish Crossover.
GBTC leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +2.39%, AIQ +1 points).
Price is up while the AIQ Score moved down 1 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price +1.05%, AIQ -1 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1QQQ closes the Momentum gap — currently 35 points behind, the largest single contributor to GBTC's edge.
- 2QQQ's Keltner Channel Breakdown resolves — a bearish volatility rule currently active against it.
- 3GBTC's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 3 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
Split| Metric | GBTC | QQQ |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 0% | — |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 0% | — |
| Gross margin | 0% | — |
| Operating margin | 0% | — |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 0% | — |
| Debt to equity | 0 | — |
Performance
QQQ leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | GBTC | QQQ |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -0.9% | -3.5% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -4.4% | -4% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 24.7% | 1.7% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 9.2% | 11.4% |
| Year to date | -6.8% | 16.8% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -24.9% | 19.6% |
Technicals
GBTC has the stronger structure| Metric | GBTC | QQQ |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 45.4 | 37.2 |
| ADX (14) | 22 | 20.3 |
| Price vs 50-day | 7.4% | -0.2% |
| Price vs 200-day | 11.3% | 6.2% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 21.4% | 15.4% |
Risk
QQQ is the more resilient| Metric | GBTC | QQQ |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.76 | 1.45 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.47 | 0.77 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.73 | 1.2 |
| Max drawdown | -48.9% | -12.2% |
| Current drawdown | -28.4% | -5.5% |
| Annualized volatility | 45% | 19.9% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -4% | -1.9% |
Straight answers
Short answers to the questions fund investors ask about this pair, from the figures above.
Which has the lower expense ratio?
QQQ has the lower expense ratio, 0.18% a year against 1.5% for GBTC.
Which ETF has been more volatile?
GBTC has been more volatile over the past year, at 45% annualized against 19.9% for QQQ.
Which ETF has had the smaller drawdown?
QQQ fell less from peak to trough over the past year: -12.2% against -48.9% for GBTC.
Compare GBTC and QQQ with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.