ETF Analysis
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) ETF Analysis
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) ETF analysis covering performance, holdings context, risk, drawdowns, volatility, momentum, dividends, valuation exposure, and the current AlgovestIQ assessment.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) currently has an AIQ Score of 60/100, indicating a neutral setup. Quality is the strongest factor at 65/100. Risk is the weakest current factor at 52/100. Performance, momentum, risk, distribution, and exposure evidence should be read together at the latest market-close snapshot.
GBTC at a Glance
Crawlable current metrics from the latest market-close ETF snapshot.
| Metric | Current |
|---|---|
| Price | $65.22 |
| AIQ Score | 60/100 |
| Overall View | Neutral |
| Technical Analysis Consensus | Strong Buy |
| Fund Size | $44.1B |
| Expense Ratio | 1.50% |
| Holdings Count | 1 |
| NAV | $63.69 |
| Asset Class | Alternatives |
| Primary Exposure | — |
| Issuer | Grayscale |
| Domicile | US |
| Inception Date | Sep 25, 2013 |
| Distribution Yield | 0.00% |
| Beta | 2.19 |
| Average Volume | 1.81M |
| 52-week range | $44.98-$91.01 |
| RSI 14 | 48.93 |
| 50-Day SMA | $61.06 |
| 200-Day SMA | $57.18 |
| Risk Score | 52/100 |
| Momentum Score | 60/100 |
| Value Exposure Score | — |
GBTC Long-Horizon ETF Performance
Trailing returns, growth of $10,000, drawdown history, and calendar-year returns from available daily closes.
| Period | Total return | Annualized | Max drawdown | Start date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | -26.69% | -26.70% | -48.87% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| 3Y | 56.55% | 17.54% | -53.75% | Jan 11, 2024 |
| 5Y | 56.55% | 17.54% | -53.75% | Jan 11, 2024 |
| 10Y | 56.55% | 17.54% | -53.75% | Jan 11, 2024 |
Growth of $10,000
Indexed to the first available close in this history window.
Drawdown History
Peak-to-trough decline from each prior high over the available window.
Calendar-Year Returns
Full-year returns where available, with the current calendar year shown as YTD.
GBTCGrayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF
Financial Services / Asset Management - Cryptocurrency
Low Priority
Above Peers
Latest quote
- Momentum60
- Value—
- Quality65
- Risk resilience52
- Sentiment—
GBTC ETF Analysis Summary
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) currently has an AIQ Score of 60/100, indicating a neutral setup. Quality is the strongest factor at 65/100. Risk resilience is the weakest current factor at 52/100. Performance, exposure, distribution, momentum, and risk evidence should be read together at the latest market-close snapshot.
In a neutral regime, GBTC has AIQ Score of 60/100 with Quality base of 65/100 and fading Risk resilience at 52/100. Wait for component alignment before adding exposure.
Financial Services · 2.39% ETF move · GBTC classified in Asset Management - Cryptocurrency.
Current Evidence
AlgovestIQ Evidence Summary
Current consensus, supporting evidence, recent changes, and what would strengthen or weaken the view.
Is GBTC Bullish or Bearish Right Now?
GBTC currently has a neutral overall setup. Quality is the strongest factor at 65/100, while Risk Resilience is weakest at 52/100. The current evidence suggests a mixed rather than strongly bullish or bearish setup.
- - Quality is supportive at 65/100.
- - Momentum is constructive at 60/100.
- - Price is +6.81% above its 50-day SMA.
- - Technical consensus has more buy votes than sell votes (32 vs 6).
- - No strong bearish evidence is available in the current snapshot.
Current Consensus
GBTC's Technical Analysis Consensus is currently Strong Buy, with 32 buy, 7 neutral, and 6 sell votes. GBTC's 14-day RSI is 48.93, which places the ETF in a neutral momentum range. GBTC's beta is 2.18, indicating greater market sensitivity than the broad market.
What Changed in GBTC?
The largest recent change in GBTC is Momentum moving up by 10.0 points over the available 7-day comparison window. Quality remains the strongest visible factor.
What Would Change the GBTC Outlook?
The current neutral outlook could improve if AIQ moves above 70, momentum recovers, risk resilience improves, and price confirms a stronger trend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. It would weaken if AIQ falls below 40, price loses long-term moving-average support, distribution or liquidity context deteriorates, or risk evidence worsens.
AIQ > 70, RSI above 55, price above SMA-50/SMA-200, and positive market-context evidence.
AIQ below 40, RSI below 45, loss of SMA-200, negative revisions, or rising volatility and drawdown risk.
GBTC Decision Framework
Public evidence layers, setup checks, and risk context for Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) ETF Analysis
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF has an AIQ Score of 60/100 in a Neutral regime. Quality is strongest at 65/100. Beta is 2.19, above market sensitivity. Review the supporting etf factors together before drawing a conclusion from any single score.
| Evidence Layer | Public Evidence |
|---|---|
| Regime Context | GBTC is in a Neutral AIQ regime with score 60/100. |
| Signal Conflict | The primary conflict is that quality leads at 65/100 while risk lags at 52/100. |
| Factor Evidence | Momentum 60/100 · Quality 65/100 · Risk 52/100 |
| Persistence | Current snapshot evidence is shown; historical persistence remains in AIQ Pro. |
Current Setup Checklist
Quality is the strongest factor at 65/100.
Momentum is 60/100 and RSI (14) is 48.9.
GBTC is in a Neutral regime at 60/100.
Risk factor is 52/100 with beta 2.19 and annual volatility 44.85%.
Current conflict: quality leads at 65/100 while risk lags at 52/100.
GBTC Research Cluster
ETF-specific paths for performance, risk, distributions, market context, data, comparisons, and news.
GBTC ETF Analytics
GBTC holdings context, yield, risk, valuation exposure, momentum, and AIQ evidence.
GBTC Technical Analysis
GBTC technical setup based on RSI, MACD, moving averages, AIQ Momentum, volume, trend, volatility, and pivots.
GBTC ETF Market Context
Track GBTC market context, news pressure, trend changes, income events, and current allocation evidence.
GBTC Distribution Analysis
GBTC distribution yield, annualized distributions, payment history, and income context.
GBTC ETF Data
GBTC available fund data, market metrics, technical readings, risk measures, and AIQ evidence.
GBTC Risk Analysis
GBTC volatility, beta, drawdown, Sharpe ratio, VaR, and downside resilience.
GBTC ETF News
GBTC ETF news, market tone, recent headlines, and catalyst context.
GBTC vs ₿ Crypto ETFs Peers
Current peer cohort: GBTC · IBIT · YBIT · YBTC · YETH. Compare AIQ, factor scores, Sharpe ratio and 1-year volatility in one indexable view.
| Peer | AIQ | Value | Momentum | Risk | Sharpe | 1Y Volatility | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBTC Current ETF | 60/100 | — | 60/100 | 52/100 | -0.51 | 44.85% | Current |
| IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF | 63/100 | — | 60/100 | 36/100 | -0.47 | 44.99% | GBTC vs IBIT |
| YBIT YieldMax Bitcoin Option Income Strategy ETF | 48/100 | — | 49/100 | 75/100 | -1.94 | 38.59% | GBTC vs YBIT |
| YBTC Roundhill Bitcoin Covered Call Strategy ETF | 49/100 | — | 49/100 | 75/100 | -1.68 | 40.48% | GBTC vs YBTC |
| YETH Roundhill Ether Covered Call Strategy ETF | 34/100 | — | 25/100 | 49/100 | -1.62 | 52.57% | GBTC vs YETH |
Peer cohort is resolved dynamically from the AlgovestIQ universe taxonomy and Compare relationship graph. Data as of Oct 21, 2026.
About the AIQ Score
Methodology for the current ETF evidence.
The AlgovestIQ AIQ Score combines multiple dimensions of ETF evidence, including momentum, valuation exposure, quality, risk resilience, sentiment context, and timing signals. It is a descriptive research score, not a guarantee of future performance or a personalized recommendation.
View AIQ methodologyFactor Diagnostics
A compact bridge from the AIQ score to the evidence tabs.
Valuation exposure across the fund's holdings.
Quality context inferred from fund exposure and available evidence.
Trend, momentum, volume, and timing confirmation.
Resilience, volatility, beta, drawdown, and tail risk.
News and event pressure around the setup.
Open the return calculator with ETF context while purchase price, shares, dates and fees remain user inputs.
AIQ Component Profile
Compare the five component scores on one consistent 0–100 scale.
Review earnings timing, revisions, news pressure, and prior event reactions in one place.
Open catalysts8 recent quarterly periods are available for review.
Checked Oct 22, 2026
Explore factor drivers, conflicts, persistence, and scenario sensitivity in the advanced workspace.
ETF Analytics Snapshot
Current ETF evidence uses fund profile, cost, size, distribution, momentum, and risk fields.
ETF pages use fund-native profile fields for cost, size, liquidity, holdings breadth, NAV, issuer, and launch date.
Market Confirmation
Technicals are summarized first, with the indicator library behind it.
Risk Alignment
Higher resilience is stronger; exposure metrics stay separate.
Continue Researching GBTC
Open the detailed evidence pages and workflows behind the stock overview read.
Premium Feature
Full AIQ Analysis
AIQ Intelligence
AIQ Pro for GBTC
Scenario Analysis
AIQ Scenario Builder
Portfolio Implication
Related Links
GBTC ETF FAQ
What is GBTC ETF price today?
GBTC is currently shown at $65.22. Use the live quote with the 52-week range and AIQ context before comparing funds.
What is GBTC's 52-week high and low?
GBTC's 52-week range is $44.98 to $91.01 based on the latest completed market-close snapshot from Oct 21, 2026. A price near either extreme should be evaluated with volatility and trend evidence.
Does GBTC pay a dividend?
GBTC's current distribution yield is 0.00% based on the latest completed market-close snapshot from Oct 21, 2026. For ETFs, dividend yield should be compared with expense ratio, holdings, and risk.
What should investors compare before buying GBTC?
Compare GBTC's price trend, expense profile, yield, holdings exposure, volatility, and AIQ signal. ETF decisions should focus on portfolio fit as much as current momentum.