HD vs PEP Stock Comparison
HD currently leads PEP in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 58 vs 56. The clearest difference is momentum, while PEP has the stronger value profile.
What is the main difference between HD and PEP?
HD leads the current stock comparison as The Home Depot, Inc., with the clearest separation coming from momentum and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
The Home Depot, Inc. vs PepsiCo, Inc.
HD leads
HD leads by 2 AIQ points, primarily on Momentum and Risk Resilience, having only recently taken the lead back from PEP.
Fragile: 4 of 6 evidence groups support HD, the lead recently changed hands, and its current signal state is conflicted.
The Home Depot, Inc.
PepsiCo, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors HD over PEP, 58 versus 56 as of Oct 21, 2026. HD's advantage is driven primarily by stronger momentum and risk resilience, while PEP holds the stronger value profile. HD also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor HD today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 2 points. HD lead: Reversed — PEP led by 4 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; HD now leads by 2.
Compare The Home Depot, Inc. and PepsiCo, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare HD and PEP against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum86 vs 61HD +25
- Value37 vs 48PEP +11
- Quality55 vs 64PEP +9
- Risk Resilience57 vs 49HD +8
4 of 6 evidence groups favor HD. HD’s edge is concentrated in momentum and risk resilience; PEP keeps a meaningful value edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum +14
New signals
- BB Upper Band Breach — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- EMA Ribbon Compression — neutral, trend, medium horizon
Largest factor move: Momentum +6
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 5 active signals are unchanged.
The lead changed hands: HD moved ahead of PEP in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — HD and PEP both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
HD (The Home Depot, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by momentum and risk resilience.
PEP (PepsiCo, Inc.): the counter-case, on value, quality, valuation.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
HDHD on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
HDHD on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
PEPPEP on the peer-relative Value factor, by 11 points.
Momentum
HDHD on the Momentum factor, by 25 points.
Lower downside
HDHD on Risk Resilience, by 8 points.
Analyst upside
HDHD on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | HD | PEP | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +18.5% | +11.6% | HD has more room |
| Target dispersion | +28.2% | +33.9% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Hold | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 14 | 13 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Dividend growth
| Dividend metric | HD | PEP |
|---|---|---|
| 5Y dividend CAGR | 8.92% | 6.92% |
| 2020 regular DPS | $6.000 | $4.023 |
| 2025 regular DPS | $9.200 | $5.623 |
| Years increased | 5 | 5 |
| No cut in window | Yes | Yes |
| Cohort rank | #126 | #194 |
HD grew its split-adjusted regular dividend faster over 2020–2025 — 8.92% a year against PEP's 6.92%. Neither company reduced its regular dividend in any year of the window.
Yield and payout ratio shown elsewhere on this page are current values, not part of the study window.
Split-adjusted regular dividends per share, 2020–2025, excluding special dividends. Research as of Sep 19, 2026.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor HD. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | Even | 58 vs 56 |
| Fundamentals | HDon balance | revenue growth 14.6% vs 4.5%; EPS growth 44.7% vs 2.3%; TTM ROE 102.7% vs 50.7%; gross margin 33.2% vs 54.2%; operating margin 12.4% vs 15.3% — HD takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | PEP | Value 37 vs 48 |
| Technicals | HD | Price vs 50-day 0.8% vs 0.3%; vs 200-day -6.2% vs -8.3% |
| Risk Resilience | HD | Risk Resilience 57 vs 49 |
| Analyst expectations | HD | Target upside 18.5% vs 11.6% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of HD and PEP and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 2 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on HD.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20HD lead: Reversed — PEP led by 4 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; HD now leads by 2.
- Today
- HD +2
- 58 vs 56
- 7 sessions ago
- Level
- 52 vs 52
- 30 sessions ago
- PEP +4
- 42 vs 46
- 90 sessions ago
- PEP +3
- 44 vs 47
The lead changed hands 3 times in this window, most recently on Oct 20 when HD moved ahead of PEP.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
2 bullish / 3 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only HD
- RSI Overbought — bearish, momentum, short horizon
- EMA Ribbon Compression — neutral, trend, medium horizon
2 bullish / 3 bearish, conflicted
Only PEP
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
Both carry 4 more signals that do not separate them: Death Cross Active, BB Upper Band Breach, Keltner Channel Breakout, MACD Bullish Crossover.
HD leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price is down while the AIQ Score moved up 4 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price -0.31%, AIQ +4 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +0.51%, AIQ +1 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1PEP closes the Momentum gap — currently 25 points behind, the largest single contributor to HD's edge.
- 2PEP's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3HD's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 2 bullish and 3 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
HD leads on balance| Metric | HD | PEP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 14.6% | 4.5% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 44.7% | 2.3% |
| Gross margin | 33.2% | 54.2% |
| Operating margin | 12.4% | 15.3% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 102.7% | 50.7% |
| Debt to equity | 3.77 | 2.33 |
Performance
Split across windows| Metric | HD | PEP |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 7.2% | 5.3% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | 3.2% | 2.2% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -4.9% | -1.2% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -8.4% | -13.5% |
| Year to date | -8.4% | -6.6% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -18.7% | -12.2% |
Technicals
HD has the stronger structure| Metric | HD | PEP |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 80.8 | 67.8 |
| ADX (14) | 26.5 | 27.2 |
| Price vs 50-day | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Price vs 200-day | -6.2% | -8.3% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 27.1% | 22.4% |
Risk
HD is the more resilient| Metric | HD | PEP |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.71 | -0.17 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.85 | -0.74 |
| Sortino ratio | -1.52 | -1.26 |
| Max drawdown | -28.3% | -27.4% |
| Current drawdown | -19.6% | -21.4% |
| Annualized volatility | 26.3% | 20.9% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -2.5% | -2.1% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, HD or PEP?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, HD is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 58 against PEP's 56. The edge comes from momentum and risk resilience. PEP is not without a case — it holds the better value profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is HD or PEP the better buy right now?
HD carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 4 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 2 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor HD over PEP?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. HD leads Momentum by 25 points; PEP leads Value by 11 points; PEP leads Quality by 9 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, HD or PEP?
Analyst price targets imply +18.5% upside for HD and +11.6% for PEP, so the Street currently favors HD. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, HD or PEP?
PEP is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. PEP on the peer-relative Value factor, by 11 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, HD or PEP?
HD on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, HD or PEP?
HD on the Momentum factor, by 25 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, HD or PEP?
HD is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. HD on Risk Resilience, by 8 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is HD more profitable than PEP?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 33.2% vs 54.2%; operating margin 12.4% vs 15.3%; ttm roe 102.7% vs 50.7%. HD leads on one measure and PEP on two measures, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is HD's lead over PEP getting stronger or weaker?
HD lead: Reversed — PEP led by 4 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; HD now leads by 2. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has changed hands 3 times in that window, most recently on 2026-10-20, when HD moved ahead of PEP.
What would change the HD vs PEP verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: PEP closes the Momentum gap — currently 25 points behind, the largest single contributor to HD's edge; PEP's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; HD's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 2 bullish and 3 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about HD and PEP?
HD: 2 bullish / 3 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. PEP: 2 bullish / 3 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on HD is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On PEP it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare HD and PEP with others
Continue your research
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How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.