WMT vs HD Stock Comparison
Walmart Inc. vs The Home Depot, Inc.
HD leads
HD leads by 1 AIQ points, primarily on Risk Resilience, but the lead has narrowed from 7 points over 30 sessions. Wall Street currently favors WMT on target upside.
Fragile: 2 of 6 evidence groups support HD, its lead is narrowing, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Walmart Inc.
The Home Depot, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors HD over WMT, 40 versus 39 as of Sep 2, 2026. HD's advantage is driven primarily by stronger risk resilience, while WMT holds the stronger momentum profile. HD also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors WMT. 2 of 6 covered evidence groups favor HD today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 1 points. HD lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 7 to 1 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Walmart Inc. and The Home Depot, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Risk Resilience15%48 vs 58HD +10
- Momentum25%23 vs 18WMT +5
- Quality30%53 vs 55Even
- Value30%34 vs 36Even
2 of 6 evidence groups favor HD. HD’s edge is concentrated in risk resilience; WMT keeps a meaningful momentum edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-02, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-01.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
HD's lead was unchanged in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — WMT and HD both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
HD (The Home Depot, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by risk resilience.
WMT (Walmart Inc.): the counter-case, on momentum, analyst expectations — but at materially higher volatility, 37.9% against 23%.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
HDHD on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value at 30% each.
Growth
HDHD on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
EvenThe two are level on Value.
Momentum
WMTWMT on the Momentum factor, by 5 points.
Lower downside
HDHD on Risk Resilience, by 10 points.
Analyst upside
WMTWMT on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors HD, analyst targets favor WMT. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | WMT | HD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +23.8% | +16.6% | WMT has more room |
| Target dispersion | +34.3% | +28.3% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 20 | 13 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
2 of 6 covered evidence groups favor HD. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | Even | 39 vs 40 |
| Fundamentals | HD | revenue growth -6.8% vs 9.3%; EPS growth 26.4% vs 27.8%; TTM ROE 23.9% vs 113.3%; gross margin 25% vs 33.1%; operating margin 4.2% vs 12.4% |
| Valuation | Even | Value 34 vs 36 |
| Technicals | Even | Price vs 50-day -4.9% vs -6.4%; vs 200-day -10.7% vs -7.2% |
| Risk Resilience | HD | Risk Resilience 48 vs 58 |
| Analyst expectations | WMT | Target upside 23.8% vs 16.6% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of WMT and HD and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 1 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's advantage has been narrowing. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on HD.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Apr 21 – Sep 2HD lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 7 to 1 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- HD +1
- 39 vs 40
- 7 sessions ago
- HD +2
- 39 vs 41
- 30 sessions ago
- HD +7
- 48 vs 55
- 90 sessions ago
- HD +15
- 41 vs 56
The lead changed hands 5 times in this window, most recently on Aug 20 when HD moved ahead of WMT.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 3 bearish, conflicted
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (6.34%)
- RSI Oversold - Potential Bounce — bullish, momentum, short horizon
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
2 bullish / 4 bearish, conflicted
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (1.28%)
- BB Lower Band Breach — bullish, volatility, short horizon
- Keltner Channel Breakdown — bearish, volatility, short horizon
HD leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +0.16%, AIQ 0 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -0.39%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1WMT closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 10 points behind, the largest single contributor to HD's edge.
- 2WMT's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3HD's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 2 bullish and 4 bearish rules at once.
- 4The narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 6 points over 30 sessions, and a further 1-point move would eliminate HD's advantage entirely.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
HD leads on balance| Metric | WMT | HD |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -6.8% | 9.3% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 26.4% | 27.8% |
| Gross margin | 25% | 33.1% |
| Operating margin | 4.2% | 12.4% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 23.9% | 113.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.79 | 4.18 |
Technicals
Split| Metric | WMT | HD |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 29 | 24.9 |
| ADX (14) | 18.1 | 11.7 |
| Price vs 50-day | -4.9% | -6.4% |
| Price vs 200-day | -10.7% | -7.2% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 37.9% | 23% |
Risk
HD is the more resilient| Metric | WMT | HD |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.08 | 0.71 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.32 | -0.98 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.42 | -1.69 |
| Max drawdown | -23.5% | -29.7% |
| Current drawdown | -21.1% | -24.5% |
| Annualized volatility | 26.1% | 25.4% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -2.4% | -2.4% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, WMT or HD?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, HD is the stronger of the two as of Sep 2, 2026, scoring 40 against WMT's 39. The edge comes from risk resilience. WMT is not without a case — it holds the better momentum profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is WMT or HD the better buy right now?
HD carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 2, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 1 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor HD over WMT?
The composite weights Quality at 30%, Value at 30%, Momentum at 25% and Risk Resilience at 15%. HD leads Risk Resilience by 10 points; WMT leads Momentum by 5 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, WMT or HD?
Analyst price targets imply +23.8% upside for WMT and +16.6% for HD, so the Street currently favors WMT. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors HD. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, WMT or HD?
Neither name separates on the peer-relative Value factor. The two are level on Value. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, WMT or HD?
HD on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, WMT or HD?
WMT on the Momentum factor, by 5 points. Momentum carries 25% of the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, WMT or HD?
HD is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. HD on Risk Resilience, by 10 points. The Risk Resilience factor weights 15% of the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is WMT more profitable than HD?
HD leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 25% vs 33.1%; operating margin 4.2% vs 12.4%; ttm roe 23.9% vs 113.3%.
Is HD's lead over WMT getting stronger or weaker?
HD lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 7 to 1 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-04-21 and 2026-09-02. The lead has changed hands 5 times in that window, most recently on 2026-08-20, when HD moved ahead of WMT.
What would change the WMT vs HD verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: WMT closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 10 points behind, the largest single contributor to HD's edge; WMT's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; HD's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 2 bullish and 4 bearish rules at once; the narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 6 points over 30 sessions, and a further 1-point move would eliminate HD's advantage entirely.
What do the current signals say about WMT and HD?
WMT: 1 bullish / 3 bearish, conflicted. HD: 2 bullish / 4 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on WMT is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On HD it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare WMT and HD with others
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality (30%), Value (30%), Momentum (25%) and Risk (15%). Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.