IBM vs SAP Stock Comparison
SAP currently leads IBM in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 71 vs 66. The clearest difference is risk resilience, while IBM has the stronger value profile.
What is the main difference between IBM and SAP?
SAP leads the current stock comparison as SAP SE, with the clearest separation coming from risk resilience and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
International Business Machines Corporation vs SAP SE
SAP leads
SAP leads by 5 AIQ points, primarily on Risk Resilience and Quality, but the lead has narrowed from 13 points over 30 sessions.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support SAP, its lead is narrowing, and its current signal state is conflicted.
International Business Machines Corporation
SAP SE
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors SAP over IBM, 71 versus 66 as of Oct 21, 2026. SAP's advantage is driven primarily by stronger risk resilience and quality, while IBM holds the stronger value profile. SAP also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor SAP today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 5 points. SAP lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 13 to 5 points over 30 sessions.
Compare International Business Machines Corporation and SAP SE across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare IBM and SAP against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Risk Resilience51 vs 70SAP +19
- Quality61 vs 78SAP +17
- Value67 vs 55IBM +12
- Momentum79 vs 84SAP +5
3 of 6 evidence groups favor SAP. SAP’s edge is concentrated in risk resilience and quality; IBM keeps a meaningful value edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum +2
New signals
- BB Upper Band Breach — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- Keltner Channel Breakout — bullish, volatility, short horizon
Largest factor move: Momentum +1, not enough on its own to move the overall score.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 7 active signals are unchanged.
SAP's lead narrowed by 1 AIQ point in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — IBM and SAP both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
SAP (SAP SE): the stronger current systematic profile, led by risk resilience and quality.
IBM (International Business Machines Corporation): the counter-case, on value, fundamentals, valuation — but at materially higher volatility, 25.3% against 14.5%.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
SAPSAP on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
IBMIBM on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
IBMIBM on the peer-relative Value factor, by 12 points.
Momentum
SAPSAP on the Momentum factor, by 5 points.
Lower downside
SAPSAP on Risk Resilience, by 19 points.
Analyst upside
EvenAnalyst targets are level or not covered for both names.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | IBM | SAP | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +4% | +3.1% | Level |
| Target dispersion | +66.9% | +36.7% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 14 | 5 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Dividend growth
| Dividend metric | IBM | SAP |
|---|---|---|
| 5Y dividend CAGR | 1.52% | 8.69% |
| 2020 regular DPS | $6.224 | $1.734 |
| 2025 regular DPS | $6.710 | $2.630 |
| Years increased | 5 | — |
| No cut in window | Yes | — |
| Cohort rank | #340 | not ranked |
SAP grew its split-adjusted regular dividend faster over 2020–2025 — 8.69% a year against IBM's 1.52%.
Yield and payout ratio shown elsewhere on this page are current values, not part of the study window.
Split-adjusted regular dividends per share, 2020–2025, excluding special dividends. Research as of Sep 19, 2026.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor SAP. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | SAP | 66 vs 71 |
| Fundamentals | IBMon balance | revenue growth 7.8% vs 3.4%; EPS growth 76.9% vs 13.9%; TTM ROE 33.5% vs 18%; gross margin 58.4% vs 73.2%; operating margin 17.9% vs 27.7% — IBM takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | IBM | Value 67 vs 55 |
| Technicals | SAP | Price vs 50-day 8.3% vs 8.9%; vs 200-day -3.7% vs 17.7% |
| Risk Resilience | SAP | Risk Resilience 51 vs 70 |
| Analyst expectations | Even | Target upside 4% vs 3.1% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of IBM and SAP and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 5 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's advantage has been narrowing. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on SAP.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20SAP lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 13 to 5 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- SAP +5
- 66 vs 71
- 7 sessions ago
- SAP +8
- 63 vs 71
- 30 sessions ago
- SAP +13
- 51 vs 64
- 90 sessions ago
- SAP +12
- 57 vs 69
The lead changed hands 4 times in this window, most recently on Sep 16 when SAP moved ahead of IBM.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
2 bullish / 3 bearish, conflicted
Only IBM
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (8.19%)
5 bullish / 2 bearish, conflicted
Only SAP
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (11.34%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
Both carry 4 more signals that do not separate them: BB Upper Band Breach, Keltner Channel Breakout, RSI Overbought, MACD Bullish Crossover.
SAP leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +3.94%, AIQ +1 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +1.64%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1IBM closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 19 points behind, the largest single contributor to SAP's edge.
- 2IBM's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3SAP's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 5 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once.
- 4The narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 8 points over 30 sessions, and a further 5-point move would eliminate SAP's advantage entirely.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
IBM leads on balance| Metric | IBM | SAP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 7.8% | 3.4% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 76.9% | 13.9% |
| Gross margin | 58.4% | 73.2% |
| Operating margin | 17.9% | 27.7% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 33.5% | 18% |
| Debt to equity | 1.89 | 0 |
Performance
SAP leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | IBM | SAP |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 4.8% | 4.2% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | 4.6% | 8.7% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 17.6% | 41.6% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -5.4% | 29.8% |
| Year to date | -18.3% | -5.7% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -12.3% | -15.3% |
Technicals
SAP has the stronger structure| Metric | IBM | SAP |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 76.1 | 85.6 |
| ADX (14) | 13.5 | 19.9 |
| Price vs 50-day | 8.3% | 8.9% |
| Price vs 200-day | -3.7% | 17.7% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 25.3% | 14.5% |
Risk
SAP is the more resilient| Metric | IBM | SAP |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.88 | 0.65 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.13 | -0.36 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.15 | -0.49 |
| Max drawdown | -37.5% | -47.8% |
| Current drawdown | -26.5% | -18.4% |
| Annualized volatility | 48.9% | 38.7% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -3.4% | -3.8% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, IBM or SAP?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, SAP is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 71 against IBM's 66. The edge comes from risk resilience and quality. IBM is not without a case — it holds the better value profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is IBM or SAP the better buy right now?
SAP carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 5 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor SAP over IBM?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. SAP leads Risk Resilience by 19 points; SAP leads Quality by 17 points; IBM leads Value by 12 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, IBM or SAP?
Analyst price targets imply +4% upside for IBM and +3.1% for SAP. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, IBM or SAP?
IBM is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. IBM on the peer-relative Value factor, by 12 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, IBM or SAP?
IBM on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, IBM or SAP?
SAP on the Momentum factor, by 5 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, IBM or SAP?
SAP is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. SAP on Risk Resilience, by 19 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is IBM more profitable than SAP?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 58.4% vs 73.2%; operating margin 17.9% vs 27.7%; ttm roe 33.5% vs 18%. IBM leads on one measure and SAP on two measures, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is SAP's lead over IBM getting stronger or weaker?
SAP lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 13 to 5 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has changed hands 4 times in that window, most recently on 2026-09-16, when SAP moved ahead of IBM.
What would change the IBM vs SAP verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: IBM closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 19 points behind, the largest single contributor to SAP's edge; IBM's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; SAP's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 5 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once; the narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 8 points over 30 sessions, and a further 5-point move would eliminate SAP's advantage entirely.
What do the current signals say about IBM and SAP?
IBM: 2 bullish / 3 bearish, conflicted. SAP: 5 bullish / 2 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on IBM is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On SAP it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare IBM and SAP with others
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How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.