LITE vs TSM Stock Comparison
Lumentum Holdings Inc. vs Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
TSM leads
TSM leads by 33 AIQ points, primarily on Quality and Risk Resilience, and the lead has widened from 23 points over 30 sessions.
Stable: 5 of 6 evidence groups support TSM, its lead is widening, and its signal state is cleanly positive.
Lumentum Holdings Inc.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors TSM over LITE, 68 versus 35 as of Sep 5, 2026. TSM's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality and risk resilience. TSM also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 5 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TSM today, and the comparison is rated Stable on stability. TSM lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 23 to 33 points over 30 sessions. TSM leads on all four AIQ factor dimensions. Value is itself one of those four, so a sweep is not explained by valuation alone — it deserves additional scrutiny for unmodeled catalysts, expectations or event risk.
Compare Lumentum Holdings Inc. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Compare LITE and TSM against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Quality30%43 vs 96TSM +53
- Risk Resilience15%39 vs 69TSM +30
- Momentum25%38 vs 63TSM +25
- Value30%24 vs 42TSM +18
5 of 6 evidence groups favor TSM. TSM’s edge is concentrated in quality and risk resilience.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-04, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-03.
Largest factor move: Momentum -1
No new signals fired.
Largest factor move: Momentum +21
New signals
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
TSM's lead widened by 7 AIQ points in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — LITE and TSM both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality and risk resilience.
LITE (Lumentum Holdings Inc.): the counter-case, on technicals — but at materially higher volatility, 96.5% against 25.9%.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
TSMTSM on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value at 30% each.
Growth
TSMTSM on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
TSMTSM on the peer-relative Value factor, by 18 points.
Momentum
TSMTSM on the Momentum factor, by 25 points.
Lower downside
TSMTSM on Risk Resilience, by 30 points.
Analyst upside
TSMTSM on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | LITE | TSM | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +16.9% | +35.1% | TSM has more room |
| Target dispersion | +54.3% | +38% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 10 | 6 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
5 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TSM. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | TSM | 35 vs 68 |
| Fundamentals | TSMon balance | revenue growth 24.5% vs 12%; EPS growth -49.3% vs 22.1%; TTM ROE -3% vs 39.3%; gross margin 41.7% vs 64.2%; operating margin 17.4% vs 56% — TSM takes 4 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | TSM | Value 24 vs 42 |
| Technicals | LITE | Price vs 50-day 7.9% vs 2%; vs 200-day 28.6% vs 15% |
| Risk Resilience | TSM | Risk Resilience 39 vs 69 |
| Analyst expectations | TSM | Target upside 16.9% vs 35.1% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of LITE and TSM and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion rests on a wide gap and broad agreement. It is unlikely to turn on a single session.
- The AIQ gap is wide at 33 points. (supports the conclusion holding)
- 5 of 6 covered evidence groups point the same way. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader's advantage has been widening. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader's signal state is cleanly positive. (supports the conclusion holding)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on TSM.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Apr 23 – Sep 4TSM lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 23 to 33 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- TSM +33
- 35 vs 68
- 7 sessions ago
- TSM +16
- 46 vs 62
- 30 sessions ago
- TSM +23
- 47 vs 70
- 90 sessions ago
- TSM +32
- 33 vs 65
The lead has not changed hands in this window.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
3 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (19.14%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
4 bullish / 0 bearish
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (12.76%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
LITE is conflicted, so the timing case there is weaker than the score alone suggests.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price is up while the AIQ Score moved down 1 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price +4%, AIQ -1 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +2.85%, AIQ +6 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1LITE closes the Quality gap — currently 53 points behind, the largest single contributor to TSM's edge.
- 2LITE generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as MACD Bullish Crossover.
- 3TSM's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
TSM leads on balance| Metric | LITE | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 24.5% | 12% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -49.3% | 22.1% |
| Gross margin | 41.7% | 64.2% |
| Operating margin | 17.4% | 56% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | -3% | 39.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.36 | 0.15 |
Performance
Split across windows| Metric | LITE | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -1.5% | 2.7% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -1% | 2.1% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 2% | 3.3% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 57.8% | 26.6% |
| Year to date | 139.1% | 41.1% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 557.1% | 85.4% |
Technicals
LITE has the stronger structure| Metric | LITE | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 42.1 | 48.7 |
| ADX (14) | 9.1 | 7.6 |
| Price vs 50-day | 7.9% | 2% |
| Price vs 200-day | 28.6% | 15% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 96.5% | 25.9% |
Risk
TSM is the more resilient| Metric | LITE | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.01 | 2.18 |
| Sharpe ratio | 2.33 | 1.6 |
| Sortino ratio | 4.29 | 2.57 |
| Max drawdown | -42.8% | -21.6% |
| Current drawdown | -16.3% | -10.2% |
| Annualized volatility | 97.1% | 40.5% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -8.6% | -4.1% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, LITE or TSM?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, TSM is the stronger of the two as of Sep 5, 2026, scoring 68 against LITE's 35. The edge comes from quality and risk resilience. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is LITE or TSM the better buy right now?
TSM carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 5, 2026, and the comparison is rated Stable — 5 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Stable rating means the gap is wide and the evidence is broad, so the conclusion is unlikely to turn on a single session.
Why does the AIQ Score favor TSM over LITE?
The composite weights Quality at 30%, Value at 30%, Momentum at 25% and Risk Resilience at 15%. TSM leads Quality by 53 points; TSM leads Risk Resilience by 30 points; TSM leads Momentum by 25 points. TSM leads on all four AIQ factor dimensions. Value is itself one of those four, so the sweep is not explained by LITE simply being cheaper — it warrants extra scrutiny for unmodeled catalysts, forward expectations or event risk the factors do not capture.
Which has more analyst upside, LITE or TSM?
Analyst price targets imply +16.9% upside for LITE and +35.1% for TSM, so the Street currently favors TSM. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, LITE or TSM?
TSM is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. TSM on the peer-relative Value factor, by 18 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, LITE or TSM?
TSM on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, LITE or TSM?
TSM on the Momentum factor, by 25 points. Momentum carries 25% of the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, LITE or TSM?
TSM is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. TSM on Risk Resilience, by 30 points. The Risk Resilience factor weights 15% of the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is LITE more profitable than TSM?
TSM leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 41.7% vs 64.2%; operating margin 17.4% vs 56%; ttm roe -3% vs 39.3%.
Is TSM's lead over LITE getting stronger or weaker?
TSM lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 23 to 33 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-04-23 and 2026-09-04. The lead has not changed hands in that window.
What would change the LITE vs TSM verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: LITE closes the Quality gap — currently 53 points behind, the largest single contributor to TSM's edge; LITE generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as MACD Bullish Crossover; TSM's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict; a regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about LITE and TSM?
LITE: 3 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. TSM: 4 bullish / 0 bearish. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on LITE is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On TSM it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare LITE and TSM with others
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality (30%), Value (30%), Momentum (25%) and Risk (15%). Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.