NVO vs MRK Stock Comparison
NVO currently leads MRK in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 66 vs 45. The clearest difference is quality, while MRK has the stronger momentum profile.
What is the main difference between NVO and MRK?
NVO leads the current stock comparison as Novo Nordisk A/S, with the clearest separation coming from quality and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Novo Nordisk A/S vs Merck & Co., Inc.
NVO leads
NVO leads by 21 AIQ points, primarily on Quality and Value, and the lead has widened from 11 points over 30 sessions.
Competitive: 5 of 6 evidence groups support NVO, its lead is widening, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Novo Nordisk A/S
Merck & Co., Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors NVO over MRK, 66 versus 45 as of Oct 21, 2026. NVO's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality and value, while MRK holds the stronger momentum profile. NVO also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 5 of 6 covered evidence groups favor NVO today, and the comparison is rated Competitive on stability: the leader is throwing conflicting signals. NVO lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 11 to 21 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Novo Nordisk A/S and Merck & Co., Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare NVO and MRK against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Quality91 vs 47NVO +44
- Value60 vs 27NVO +33
- Momentum54 vs 66MRK +12
- Risk Resilience51 vs 44NVO +7
5 of 6 evidence groups favor NVO. NVO’s edge is concentrated in quality and value; MRK keeps a meaningful momentum edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum +10
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 4 active signals are unchanged.
Largest factor move: Momentum +25
New signals
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
NVO's lead narrowed by 4 AIQ points in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — NVO and MRK both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
NVO (Novo Nordisk A/S): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality and value.
MRK (Merck & Co., Inc.): the counter-case, on momentum, technicals — but at materially higher volatility, 29.9% against 22.8%.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
NVONVO on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
MRKMRK on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
NVONVO on the peer-relative Value factor, by 33 points.
Momentum
MRKMRK on the Momentum factor, by 12 points.
Lower downside
NVONVO on Risk Resilience, by 7 points.
Analyst upside
NVONVO on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | NVO | MRK | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +11.4% | +1.3% | NVO has more room |
| Target dispersion | +16.1% | +49.4% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 3 | 18 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Dividend growth
| Dividend metric | NVO | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| 5Y dividend CAGR | 21.57% | 5.75% |
| 2020 regular DPS | $0.650 | $2.480 |
| 2025 regular DPS | $1.727 | $3.280 |
| Years increased | 5 | 5 |
| No cut in window | Yes | Yes |
| Cohort rank | #12 | #221 |
NVO grew its split-adjusted regular dividend faster over 2020–2025 — 21.57% a year against MRK's 5.75%. Neither company reduced its regular dividend in any year of the window.
Yield and payout ratio shown elsewhere on this page are current values, not part of the study window.
Split-adjusted regular dividends per share, 2020–2025, excluding special dividends. Research as of Sep 19, 2026.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
5 of 6 covered evidence groups favor NVO. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | NVO | 66 vs 45 |
| Fundamentals | NVOon balance | revenue growth -18.9% vs 2%; EPS growth -56.6% vs 68.6%; TTM ROE 59.1% vs 6.6%; gross margin 80.6% vs 75.4%; operating margin 43.1% vs 16.7% — NVO takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | NVO | Value 60 vs 27 |
| Technicals | MRK | Price vs 50-day -7.8% vs 2.8%; vs 200-day -12.4% vs 18.4% |
| Risk Resilience | NVO | Risk Resilience 51 vs 44 |
| Analyst expectations | NVO | Target upside 11.4% vs 1.3% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of NVO and MRK and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The two are close enough that your objective, not the score, should decide.
- The AIQ gap is wide at 21 points. (supports the conclusion holding)
- 5 of 6 covered evidence groups point the same way. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader's advantage has been widening. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Signal direction runs against the verdict: the leader is net-bearish while the laggard is net-bullish. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on NVO.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20NVO lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 11 to 21 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- NVO +21
- 66 vs 45
- 7 sessions ago
- NVO +21
- 64 vs 43
- 30 sessions ago
- NVO +11
- 57 vs 46
- 90 sessions ago
- NVO +7
- 57 vs 50
The lead has not changed hands in this window.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only NVO
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (6.08%)
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
4 bullish / 0 bearish
Only MRK
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (16.36%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
Both carry 1 more signal that do not separate them: MACD Bullish Crossover.
NVO leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price is down while the AIQ Score moved up 2 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price -0.74%, AIQ +2 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +1.07%, AIQ +6 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1MRK closes the Quality gap — currently 44 points behind, the largest single contributor to NVO's edge.
- 2MRK's existing bullish trend signals translate into factor-score gains — the rules are already firing, but the scores have not yet followed.
- 3NVO's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
NVO leads on balance| Metric | NVO | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -18.9% | 2% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -56.6% | 68.6% |
| Gross margin | 80.6% | 75.4% |
| Operating margin | 43.1% | 16.7% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 59.1% | 6.6% |
| Debt to equity | 0.63 | 1.29 |
Performance
MRK leads 5 of 6 windows| Metric | NVO | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 3.4% | 4.5% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -0.1% | -1.7% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -18.3% | 16.3% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -0.2% | 31.8% |
| Year to date | -22.7% | 40.9% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -29.8% | 76.7% |
Technicals
MRK has the stronger structure| Metric | NVO | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 62.9 | 54.6 |
| ADX (14) | 26.3 | 15.5 |
| Price vs 50-day | -7.8% | 2.8% |
| Price vs 200-day | -12.4% | 18.4% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 22.8% | 29.9% |
Risk
NVO is the more resilient| Metric | NVO | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.03 | 0.12 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.56 | 1.91 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.71 | 3.71 |
| Max drawdown | -44.8% | -11.9% |
| Current drawdown | -38.5% | -5.2% |
| Annualized volatility | 45.8% | 29.7% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -3.1% | -2.4% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, NVO or MRK?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, NVO is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 66 against MRK's 45. The edge comes from quality and value. MRK is not without a case — it holds the better momentum profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is NVO or MRK the better buy right now?
NVO carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Competitive — 5 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Competitive rating means the two are close enough that your objective, not the score, should decide.
Why does the AIQ Score favor NVO over MRK?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. NVO leads Quality by 44 points; NVO leads Value by 33 points; MRK leads Momentum by 12 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, NVO or MRK?
Analyst price targets imply +11.4% upside for NVO and +1.3% for MRK, so the Street currently favors NVO. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, NVO or MRK?
NVO is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. NVO on the peer-relative Value factor, by 33 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, NVO or MRK?
MRK on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, NVO or MRK?
MRK on the Momentum factor, by 12 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, NVO or MRK?
NVO is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. NVO on Risk Resilience, by 7 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is NVO more profitable than MRK?
NVO leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 80.6% vs 75.4%; operating margin 43.1% vs 16.7%; ttm roe 59.1% vs 6.6%.
Is NVO's lead over MRK getting stronger or weaker?
NVO lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 11 to 21 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has not changed hands in that window.
What would change the NVO vs MRK verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: MRK closes the Quality gap — currently 44 points behind, the largest single contributor to NVO's edge; MRK's existing bullish trend signals translate into factor-score gains — the rules are already firing, but the scores have not yet followed; NVO's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about NVO and MRK?
NVO: 1 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. MRK: 4 bullish / 0 bearish. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on NVO is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On MRK it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare NVO and MRK with others
Continue your research
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How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.