LLY vs MRK Stock Comparison
Eli Lilly and Company vs Merck & Co., Inc.
MRK leads
MRK leads by 6 AIQ points, primarily on Momentum and Value, having only recently taken the lead back from LLY. Wall Street currently favors LLY on target upside.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support MRK, the lead recently changed hands, and its signal state is cleanly positive.
Eli Lilly and Company
Merck & Co., Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors MRK over LLY, 49 versus 43 as of Sep 2, 2026. MRK's advantage is driven primarily by stronger momentum and value, while LLY holds the stronger quality profile. MRK also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors LLY. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor MRK today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. MRK lead: Reversed — LLY led by 7 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; MRK now leads by 6.
Compare Eli Lilly and Company and Merck & Co., Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum25%23 vs 81MRK +58
- Quality30%76 vs 47LLY +29
- Risk Resilience15%45 vs 35LLY +10
- Value30%25 vs 30MRK +5
3 of 6 evidence groups favor MRK. MRK’s edge is concentrated in momentum and value; LLY keeps a meaningful quality edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-01, compared against the prior scored session 2026-08-31.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
MRK's lead was unchanged in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — LLY and MRK both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
MRK (Merck & Co., Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by momentum and value.
LLY (Eli Lilly and Company): the counter-case, on quality, risk resilience, fundamentals.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
MRKMRK on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value at 30% each.
Growth
MRKMRK on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
MRKMRK on the peer-relative Value factor, by 5 points.
Momentum
MRKMRK on the Momentum factor, by 58 points.
Lower downside
LLYLLY on Risk Resilience, by 10 points.
Analyst upside
LLYLLY on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors MRK, analyst targets favor LLY. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | LLY | MRK | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +14.2% | -1.3% | LLY has more room |
| Target dispersion | +28.6% | +50.4% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 16 | 15 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor MRK. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | MRK | 43 vs 49 |
| Fundamentals | LLYon balance | revenue growth 16% vs 2%; EPS growth -3.9% vs 68.6%; ROE 92.6% vs 6.6%; gross margin 84% vs 75.4%; operating margin 43.9% vs 16.7% — LLY takes 4 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | MRK | Value 25 vs 30 |
| Technicals | MRK | Price vs 50-day -1.9% vs 14.1%; vs 200-day 9.1% vs 26% |
| Risk Resilience | LLY | Risk Resilience 45 vs 35 |
| Analyst expectations | LLY | Target upside 14.2% vs -1.3% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of LLY and MRK and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 6 points.
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has swung materially session to session. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's signal state is cleanly positive. (supports the conclusion holding)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on MRK.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Apr 20 – Sep 1MRK lead: Reversed — LLY led by 7 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; MRK now leads by 6.
- Today
- MRK +6
- 43 vs 49
- 7 sessions ago
- MRK +5
- 45 vs 50
- 30 sessions ago
- LLY +7
- 56 vs 49
- 90 sessions ago
- LLY +6
- 55 vs 49
The lead changed hands 2 times in this window, most recently on Aug 27 when MRK moved ahead of LLY.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
2 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (12.01%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
4 bullish / 0 bearish
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (12.70%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
LLY is conflicted, so the timing case there is weaker than the score alone suggests.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +0.48%, AIQ 0 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +0.63%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1LLY closes the Momentum gap — currently 58 points behind, the largest single contributor to MRK's edge.
- 2LLY's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it.
- 3MRK's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
LLY leads on balance| Metric | LLY | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 16% | 2% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -3.9% | 68.6% |
| Gross margin | 84% | 75.4% |
| Operating margin | 43.9% | 16.7% |
| Return on equity | 92.6% | 6.6% |
| Debt to equity | 1.62 | 1.29 |
Technicals
MRK has the stronger structure| Metric | LLY | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 40 | 68.6 |
| ADX (14) | 17.6 | 41.4 |
| Price vs 50-day | -1.9% | 14.1% |
| Price vs 200-day | 9.1% | 26% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 38.3% | 50.4% |
Risk
LLY is the more resilient| Metric | LLY | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.32 | 0.14 |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.35 | 1.91 |
| Sortino ratio | 2.58 | 3.92 |
| Max drawdown | -23.3% | -11.9% |
| Current drawdown | -9.7% | -5.5% |
| Annualized volatility | 35.9% | 30.6% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -2.7% | -2.4% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, LLY or MRK?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, MRK is the stronger of the two as of Sep 2, 2026, scoring 49 against LLY's 43. The edge comes from momentum and value. LLY is not without a case — it holds the better quality profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is LLY or MRK the better buy right now?
MRK carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 2, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor MRK over LLY?
The composite weights Quality at 30%, Value at 30%, Momentum at 25% and Risk Resilience at 15%. MRK leads Momentum by 58 points; LLY leads Quality by 29 points; LLY leads Risk Resilience by 10 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, LLY or MRK?
Analyst price targets imply +14.2% upside for LLY and -1.3% for MRK, so the Street currently favors LLY. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors MRK. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, LLY or MRK?
MRK is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. MRK on the peer-relative Value factor, by 5 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, LLY or MRK?
MRK on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, LLY or MRK?
MRK on the Momentum factor, by 58 points. Momentum carries 25% of the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, LLY or MRK?
LLY is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. LLY on Risk Resilience, by 10 points. The Risk Resilience factor weights 15% of the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is LLY more profitable than MRK?
LLY leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 84% vs 75.4%; operating margin 43.9% vs 16.7%; roe 92.6% vs 6.6%.
Is MRK's lead over LLY getting stronger or weaker?
MRK lead: Reversed — LLY led by 7 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; MRK now leads by 6. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-04-20 and 2026-09-01. The lead has changed hands 2 times in that window, most recently on 2026-08-27, when MRK moved ahead of LLY.
What would change the LLY vs MRK verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: LLY closes the Momentum gap — currently 58 points behind, the largest single contributor to MRK's edge; LLY's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it; MRK's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict; a regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about LLY and MRK?
LLY: 2 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. MRK: 4 bullish / 0 bearish. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on LLY is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On MRK it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare LLY and MRK with others
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality (30%), Value (30%), Momentum (25%) and Risk (15%). Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.