ONTO vs TSM Stock Comparison
TSM currently leads ONTO in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 58 vs 31. The clearest difference is quality.
What is the main difference between ONTO and TSM?
TSM leads the current stock comparison as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, with the clearest separation coming from quality and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Onto Innovation Inc. vs Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
TSM leads
TSM leads by 27 AIQ points, primarily on Quality and Risk Resilience, and the lead has widened from 21 points over 30 sessions. Wall Street currently favors ONTO on target upside.
Stable: 5 of 6 evidence groups support TSM, its lead is widening, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Onto Innovation Inc.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors TSM over ONTO, 58 versus 31 as of Oct 21, 2026. TSM's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality and risk resilience. TSM also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors ONTO. 5 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TSM today, and the comparison is rated Stable on stability: the leader is throwing conflicting signals. TSM lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 21 to 27 points over 30 sessions. TSM leads on all four AIQ factor dimensions. Value is itself one of those four, so a sweep is not explained by valuation alone — it deserves additional scrutiny for unmodeled catalysts, expectations or event risk.
Compare Onto Innovation Inc. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare ONTO and TSM against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Quality48 vs 98TSM +50
- Risk Resilience40 vs 67TSM +27
- Value28 vs 45TSM +17
- Momentum8 vs 21TSM +13
5 of 6 evidence groups favor TSM. TSM’s edge is concentrated in quality and risk resilience.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
No factor moved materially.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 5 active signals are unchanged.
Largest factor move: Momentum +3
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 2 active signals are unchanged.
TSM's lead widened by 1 AIQ point in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — ONTO and TSM both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality and risk resilience.
ONTO (Onto Innovation Inc.): the counter-case, on analyst expectations — but at materially higher volatility, 58.7% against 28.8%.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
TSMTSM on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
ONTOONTO on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
TSMTSM on the peer-relative Value factor, by 17 points.
Momentum
TSMTSM on the Momentum factor, by 13 points.
Lower downside
TSMTSM on Risk Resilience, by 27 points.
Analyst upside
ONTOONTO on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors TSM, analyst targets favor ONTO. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | ONTO | TSM | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +71.2% | +36.4% | ONTO has more room |
| Target dispersion | +31.6% | +34% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 9 | 7 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
5 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TSM. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | TSM | 31 vs 58 |
| Fundamentals | TSMon balance | revenue growth 17.5% vs 17.6%; EPS growth 79.4% vs 8%; TTM ROE 6.5% vs 41.2%; gross margin 50.4% vs 65.8%; operating margin 12.5% vs 57.9% — TSM takes 3 of 4 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | TSM | Value 28 vs 45 |
| Technicals | TSM | Price vs 50-day -21.4% vs -0.6%; vs 200-day -14.8% vs 7.3% |
| Risk Resilience | TSM | Risk Resilience 40 vs 67 |
| Analyst expectations | ONTO | Target upside 71.2% vs 36.4% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of ONTO and TSM and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion rests on a wide gap and broad agreement. It is unlikely to turn on a single session.
- The AIQ gap is wide at 27 points. (supports the conclusion holding)
- 5 of 6 covered evidence groups point the same way. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader's advantage has been widening. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on TSM.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20TSM lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 21 to 27 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- TSM +27
- 31 vs 58
- 7 sessions ago
- TSM +25
- 31 vs 56
- 30 sessions ago
- TSM +21
- 51 vs 72
- 90 sessions ago
- TSM +19
- 52 vs 71
The lead has not changed hands in this window.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
2 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only ONTO
- ATR Expansion - Breakout Mode — neutral, volatility, short horizon (7.29%)
- Keltner Channel Breakdown — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Oversold - Potential Bounce — bullish, momentum, short horizon
1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
No signal that the other name lacks.
Both carry 2 more signals that do not separate them: Golden Cross Active, MACD Bearish Crossover.
TSM leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +1.15%, AIQ 0 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +1.6%, AIQ +1 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1ONTO closes the Quality gap — currently 50 points behind, the largest single contributor to TSM's edge.
- 2ONTO's Keltner Channel Breakdown resolves — a bearish volatility rule currently active against it.
- 3TSM's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
TSM leads on balance| Metric | ONTO | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 17.5% | 17.6% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 79.4% | 8% |
| Gross margin | 50.4% | 65.8% |
| Operating margin | 12.5% | 57.9% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 6.5% | 41.2% |
| Debt to equity | 0.77 | 0.14 |
Performance
TSM leads 5 of 6 windows| Metric | ONTO | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -16.7% | -4.5% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -22.6% | -6% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -23.7% | 0.9% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -23.5% | 15.5% |
| Year to date | 39.1% | 39.9% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 66.1% | 41.8% |
Technicals
TSM has the stronger structure| Metric | ONTO | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 21 | 36.7 |
| ADX (14) | 22.7 | 21.6 |
| Price vs 50-day | -21.4% | -0.6% |
| Price vs 200-day | -14.8% | 7.3% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 58.7% | 28.8% |
Risk
TSM is the more resilient| Metric | ONTO | TSM |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.09 | 2.11 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.99 | 1.04 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.65 | 1.66 |
| Max drawdown | -42.3% | -21.6% |
| Current drawdown | -42% | -12.5% |
| Annualized volatility | 71.5% | 38.9% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -7.3% | -3.8% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, ONTO or TSM?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, TSM is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 58 against ONTO's 31. The edge comes from quality and risk resilience. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is ONTO or TSM the better buy right now?
TSM carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Stable — 5 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Stable rating means the gap is wide and the evidence is broad, so the conclusion is unlikely to turn on a single session.
Why does the AIQ Score favor TSM over ONTO?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. TSM leads Quality by 50 points; TSM leads Risk Resilience by 27 points; TSM leads Value by 17 points. TSM leads on all four AIQ factor dimensions. Value is itself one of those four, so the sweep is not explained by ONTO simply being cheaper — it warrants extra scrutiny for unmodeled catalysts, forward expectations or event risk the factors do not capture.
Which has more analyst upside, ONTO or TSM?
Analyst price targets imply +71.2% upside for ONTO and +36.4% for TSM, so the Street currently favors ONTO. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors TSM. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, ONTO or TSM?
TSM is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. TSM on the peer-relative Value factor, by 17 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, ONTO or TSM?
ONTO on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, ONTO or TSM?
TSM on the Momentum factor, by 13 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, ONTO or TSM?
TSM is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. TSM on Risk Resilience, by 27 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is ONTO more profitable than TSM?
TSM leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 50.4% vs 65.8%; operating margin 12.5% vs 57.9%; ttm roe 6.5% vs 41.2%.
Is TSM's lead over ONTO getting stronger or weaker?
TSM lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 21 to 27 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has not changed hands in that window.
What would change the ONTO vs TSM verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: ONTO closes the Quality gap — currently 50 points behind, the largest single contributor to TSM's edge; ONTO's Keltner Channel Breakdown resolves — a bearish volatility rule currently active against it; TSM's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about ONTO and TSM?
ONTO: 2 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. TSM: 1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on ONTO is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On TSM it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare ONTO and TSM with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.