ORCL vs SMCI Stock Comparison
ORCL currently leads SMCI in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 51 vs 48. The clearest difference is quality, while SMCI has the stronger value profile.
What is the main difference between ORCL and SMCI?
ORCL leads the current stock comparison as Oracle Corporation, with the clearest separation coming from quality and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Oracle Corporation vs Super Micro Computer, Inc.
ORCL leads
ORCL leads by 3 AIQ points, primarily on Quality and Momentum, having only recently taken the lead back from SMCI.
Fragile: 2 of 6 evidence groups support ORCL, and the lead recently changed hands.
Oracle Corporation
Super Micro Computer, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors ORCL over SMCI, 51 versus 48 as of Oct 21, 2026. ORCL's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality and momentum, while SMCI holds the stronger value profile. ORCL also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 2 of 6 covered evidence groups favor ORCL today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 3 points. ORCL lead: Reversed — SMCI led by 12 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; ORCL now leads by 3.
Compare Oracle Corporation and Super Micro Computer, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare ORCL and SMCI against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Quality70 vs 53ORCL +17
- Momentum34 vs 20ORCL +14
- Value61 vs 74SMCI +13
- Risk Resilience23 vs 36SMCI +13
2 of 6 evidence groups favor ORCL. ORCL’s edge is concentrated in quality and momentum; SMCI keeps a meaningful value edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum +2, not enough on its own to move the overall score.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 4 active signals are unchanged.
No factor moved materially.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 5 active signals are unchanged.
ORCL's lead was unchanged in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — ORCL and SMCI both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
ORCL (Oracle Corporation): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality and momentum.
SMCI (Super Micro Computer, Inc.): the counter-case, on value, risk resilience, valuation.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
ORCLORCL on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
SMCISMCI on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
SMCISMCI on the peer-relative Value factor, by 13 points.
Momentum
ORCLORCL on the Momentum factor, by 14 points.
Lower downside
SMCISMCI on Risk Resilience, by 13 points.
Analyst upside
ORCLORCL on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | ORCL | SMCI | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +88.8% | +14.7% | ORCL has more room |
| Target dispersion | +94.3% | +44.1% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Hold | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 21 | 9 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
2 of 6 covered evidence groups favor ORCL. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | Even | 51 vs 48 |
| Fundamentals | ORCLon balance | revenue growth 11.6% vs 8.6%; EPS growth 14.8% vs 133.3%; TTM ROE 50.6% vs 25.1%; gross margin 65.8% vs 10.8%; operating margin 30.8% vs 7.1% — ORCL takes 4 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | SMCI | Value 61 vs 74 |
| Technicals | SMCI | Price vs 50-day -10.6% vs -8.1%; vs 200-day -17.8% vs -0.1% |
| Risk Resilience | SMCI | Risk Resilience 23 vs 36 |
| Analyst expectations | ORCL | Target upside 88.8% vs 14.7% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of ORCL and SMCI and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 3 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Analyst targets on the leader are widely dispersed. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on ORCL.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20ORCL lead: Reversed — SMCI led by 12 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; ORCL now leads by 3.
- Today
- ORCL +3
- 51 vs 48
- 7 sessions ago
- ORCL +2
- 52 vs 50
- 30 sessions ago
- SMCI +12
- 48 vs 60
- 90 sessions ago
- SMCI +3
- 60 vs 63
The lead changed hands 3 times in this window, most recently on Aug 14 when SMCI moved ahead of ORCL.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
0 bullish / 3 bearish / 1 neutral
Only ORCL
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (10.51%)
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
2 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only SMCI
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (19.13%)
- Keltner Channel Breakdown — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Oversold - Potential Bounce — bullish, momentum, short horizon
Both carry 2 more signals that do not separate them: ATR Expansion - Breakout Mode, MACD Bearish Crossover.
SMCI is conflicted, so the timing case there is weaker than the score alone suggests.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -1.53%, AIQ 0 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +9.55%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1SMCI closes the Quality gap — currently 17 points behind, the largest single contributor to ORCL's edge.
- 2SMCI's Keltner Channel Breakdown resolves — a bearish volatility rule currently active against it.
- 3ORCL starts generating bearish momentum or trend signals.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
ORCL leads on balance| Metric | ORCL | SMCI |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 11.6% | 8.6% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 14.8% | 133.3% |
| Gross margin | 65.8% | 10.8% |
| Operating margin | 30.8% | 7.1% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 50.6% | 25.1% |
| Debt to equity | 3.67 | 0.46 |
Performance
SMCI leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | ORCL | SMCI |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -8.4% | -16.9% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -12.1% | -21.8% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 4.2% | 6.3% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -27.6% | 14.2% |
| Year to date | -32.7% | 10.9% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -57.7% | -39.7% |
Technicals
SMCI has the stronger structure| Metric | ORCL | SMCI |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 44.7 | 27.4 |
| ADX (14) | 11.3 | 27.7 |
| Price vs 50-day | -10.6% | -8.1% |
| Price vs 200-day | -17.8% | -0.1% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 56.7% | 59.9% |
Risk
SMCI is the more resilient| Metric | ORCL | SMCI |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.2 | 3.9 |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.18 | -0.08 |
| Sortino ratio | -2.08 | -0.11 |
| Max drawdown | -60.5% | -62.7% |
| Current drawdown | -55% | -41% |
| Annualized volatility | 57.2% | 92.9% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -5.7% | -7.9% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, ORCL or SMCI?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, ORCL is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 51 against SMCI's 48. The edge comes from quality and momentum. SMCI is not without a case — it holds the better value profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is ORCL or SMCI the better buy right now?
ORCL carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 3 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor ORCL over SMCI?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. ORCL leads Quality by 17 points; ORCL leads Momentum by 14 points; SMCI leads Value by 13 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, ORCL or SMCI?
Analyst price targets imply +88.8% upside for ORCL and +14.7% for SMCI, so the Street currently favors ORCL. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, ORCL or SMCI?
SMCI is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. SMCI on the peer-relative Value factor, by 13 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, ORCL or SMCI?
SMCI on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, ORCL or SMCI?
ORCL on the Momentum factor, by 14 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, ORCL or SMCI?
SMCI is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. SMCI on Risk Resilience, by 13 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is ORCL more profitable than SMCI?
ORCL leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 65.8% vs 10.8%; operating margin 30.8% vs 7.1%; ttm roe 50.6% vs 25.1%.
Is ORCL's lead over SMCI getting stronger or weaker?
ORCL lead: Reversed — SMCI led by 12 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; ORCL now leads by 3. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has changed hands 3 times in that window, most recently on 2026-08-14, when SMCI moved ahead of ORCL.
What would change the ORCL vs SMCI verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: SMCI closes the Quality gap — currently 17 points behind, the largest single contributor to ORCL's edge; SMCI's Keltner Channel Breakdown resolves — a bearish volatility rule currently active against it; ORCL starts generating bearish momentum or trend signals; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about ORCL and SMCI?
ORCL: 0 bullish / 3 bearish / 1 neutral. SMCI: 2 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on ORCL is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On SMCI it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare ORCL and SMCI with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.