ORCL vs SAP Stock Comparison
SAP currently leads ORCL in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 68 vs 58. The clearest difference is risk resilience, while ORCL has the stronger value profile.
What is the main difference between ORCL and SAP?
SAP leads the current stock comparison as SAP SE, with the clearest separation coming from risk resilience and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Oracle Corporation vs SAP SE
SAP leads
SAP leads by 10 AIQ points, primarily on Risk Resilience and Momentum. Wall Street currently favors ORCL on target upside.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support SAP, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Oracle Corporation
SAP SE
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors SAP over ORCL, 68 versus 58 as of Oct 31, 2026. SAP's advantage is driven primarily by stronger risk resilience and momentum, while ORCL holds the stronger value profile. SAP also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors ORCL. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor SAP today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. SAP lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 10 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Oracle Corporation and SAP SE across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare ORCL and SAP against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Risk Resilience23 vs 66SAP +43
- Momentum63 vs 83SAP +20
- Value61 vs 50ORCL +11
- Quality70 vs 74SAP +4
3 of 6 evidence groups favor SAP. SAP’s edge is concentrated in risk resilience and momentum; ORCL keeps a meaningful value edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-28, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-27.
Largest factor move: Momentum +32
New signals
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
Largest factor move: Momentum -1, not enough on its own to move the overall score.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 6 active signals are unchanged.
SAP's lead narrowed by 8 AIQ points in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — ORCL and SAP both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
SAP (SAP SE): the stronger current systematic profile, led by risk resilience and momentum.
ORCL (Oracle Corporation): the counter-case, on value, fundamentals, valuation — but at materially higher volatility, 66.5% against 18%.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
SAPSAP on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
ORCLORCL on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
ORCLORCL on the peer-relative Value factor, by 11 points.
Momentum
SAPSAP on the Momentum factor, by 20 points.
Lower downside
SAPSAP on Risk Resilience, by 43 points.
Analyst upside
ORCLORCL on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors SAP, analyst targets favor ORCL. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | ORCL | SAP | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +86.1% | +28.9% | ORCL has more room |
| Target dispersion | +94.6% | +205.6% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 22 | 6 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Dividend growth
| Dividend metric | ORCL | SAP |
|---|---|---|
| 5Y dividend CAGR | 14.63% | 8.69% |
| 2020 regular DPS | $0.960 | $1.734 |
| 2025 regular DPS | $1.900 | $2.630 |
| Years increased | 5 | — |
| No cut in window | Yes | — |
| Cohort rank | #43 | not ranked |
ORCL grew its split-adjusted regular dividend faster over 2020–2025 — 14.63% a year against SAP's 8.69%.
Yield and payout ratio shown elsewhere on this page are current values, not part of the study window.
Split-adjusted regular dividends per share, 2020–2025, excluding special dividends. Research as of Sep 19, 2026.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor SAP. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | SAP | 58 vs 68 |
| Fundamentals | ORCLon balance | revenue growth 11.6% vs 3.4%; EPS growth 14.8% vs 2.6%; TTM ROE 50.6% vs 17.8%; gross margin 65.8% vs 72.8%; operating margin 30.8% vs 27.4% — ORCL takes 4 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | ORCL | Value 61 vs 50 |
| Technicals | SAP | Price vs 50-day -8.1% vs 8.2%; vs 200-day -8.3% vs 23.6% |
| Risk Resilience | SAP | Risk Resilience 23 vs 66 |
| Analyst expectations | ORCL | Target upside 86.1% vs 28.9% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of ORCL and SAP and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 10 points.
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Analyst targets on the leader are widely dispersed. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on SAP.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 29 – Oct 28SAP lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 10 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- SAP +10
- 58 vs 68
- 7 sessions ago
- SAP +22
- 50 vs 72
- 30 sessions ago
- SAP +11
- 52 vs 63
- 90 sessions ago
- SAP +10
- 58 vs 68
The lead changed hands once in this window, most recently on Sep 10 when SAP moved ahead of ORCL.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only ORCL
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (10.89%)
- ATR Expansion - Breakout Mode — neutral, volatility, short horizon (5.09%)
5 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
Only SAP
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (13.25%)
- Keltner Channel Breakout — bullish, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Overbought — bearish, momentum, short horizon
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
Both carry 1 more signal that do not separate them: MACD Bullish Crossover.
SAP leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price is down while the AIQ Score moved up 8 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price -6.37%, AIQ +8 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +0.41%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1ORCL closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 43 points behind, the largest single contributor to SAP's edge.
- 2ORCL's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3SAP's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 5 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
ORCL leads on balance| Metric | ORCL | SAP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 11.6% | 3.4% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 14.8% | 2.6% |
| Gross margin | 65.8% | 72.8% |
| Operating margin | 30.8% | 27.4% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 50.6% | 17.8% |
| Debt to equity | 3.67 | 0.23 |
Performance
SAP leads 5 of 6 windows| Metric | ORCL | SAP |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 11.9% | 1.8% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | 5.3% | 13.6% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 13.3% | 31% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -11.8% | 37.8% |
| Year to date | -25.8% | -2.5% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -49% | -12.9% |
Technicals
SAP has the stronger structure| Metric | ORCL | SAP |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 56.7 | 83.7 |
| ADX (14) | 13.5 | 32 |
| Price vs 50-day | -8.1% | 8.2% |
| Price vs 200-day | -8.3% | 23.6% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 66.5% | 18% |
Risk
SAP is the more resilient| Metric | ORCL | SAP |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.28 | 0.62 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.93 | -0.25 |
| Sortino ratio | -1.66 | -0.33 |
| Max drawdown | -59% | -45.8% |
| Current drawdown | -48.5% | -12.3% |
| Annualized volatility | 58.1% | 38.7% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -5.7% | -3.8% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, ORCL or SAP?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, SAP is the stronger of the two as of Oct 31, 2026, scoring 68 against ORCL's 58. The edge comes from risk resilience and momentum. ORCL is not without a case — it holds the better value profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is ORCL or SAP the better buy right now?
SAP carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 31, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor SAP over ORCL?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. SAP leads Risk Resilience by 43 points; SAP leads Momentum by 20 points; ORCL leads Value by 11 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, ORCL or SAP?
Analyst price targets imply +86.1% upside for ORCL and +28.9% for SAP, so the Street currently favors ORCL. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors SAP. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, ORCL or SAP?
ORCL is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. ORCL on the peer-relative Value factor, by 11 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, ORCL or SAP?
ORCL on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, ORCL or SAP?
SAP on the Momentum factor, by 20 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, ORCL or SAP?
SAP is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. SAP on Risk Resilience, by 43 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is ORCL more profitable than SAP?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 65.8% vs 72.8%; operating margin 30.8% vs 27.4%; ttm roe 50.6% vs 17.8%. ORCL leads on two measures and SAP on one measure, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is SAP's lead over ORCL getting stronger or weaker?
SAP lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 10 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-29 and 2026-10-28. The lead has changed hands once in that window, most recently on 2026-09-10, when SAP moved ahead of ORCL.
What would change the ORCL vs SAP verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: ORCL closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 43 points behind, the largest single contributor to SAP's edge; ORCL's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; SAP's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 5 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about ORCL and SAP?
ORCL: 1 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. SAP: 5 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on ORCL is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On SAP it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare ORCL and SAP with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.