SPY vs TMDX Stock Comparison
Compare SPY and TMDX across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between SPY and TMDX?
SPY leads the current stock comparison as State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF, with the clearest separation coming from risk resilience and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF vs TransMedics Group, Inc.
SPY leads
SPY leads by 22 AIQ points, primarily on Risk Resilience and Momentum, and the lead has widened from 16 points over 30 sessions.
Stable: 4 of 4 evidence groups support SPY, its lead is widening, and its current signal state is conflicted.
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF
TransMedics Group, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors SPY over TMDX, 64 versus 42 as of Sep 12, 2026. SPY's advantage is driven primarily by stronger risk resilience and momentum. SPY also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 4 of 4 covered evidence groups favor SPY today, and the comparison is rated Stable on stability: the leader is throwing conflicting signals. SPY lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 16 to 22 points over 30 sessions. SPY leads on all four AIQ factor dimensions. Value is itself one of those four, so a sweep is not explained by valuation alone — it deserves additional scrutiny for unmodeled catalysts, expectations or event risk.
Compare State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF and TransMedics Group, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare SPY and TMDX against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Risk Resilience88 vs 33SPY +55
- Momentum56 vs 34SPY +22
- Quality84 vs 64SPY +20
- Value39 vs 32SPY +7
4 of 4 evidence groups favor SPY. SPY’s edge is concentrated in risk resilience and momentum.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-11, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-10.
Largest factor move: Momentum +17
New signals
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
Largest factor move: Momentum -9
New signals
- RSI Oversold - Potential Bounce — bullish, momentum, short horizon
SPY's lead widened by 7 AIQ points in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — SPY and TMDX both carry a full feed there.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
SPYSPY on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
EvenGrowth figures are not covered for both names.
Value
SPYSPY on the peer-relative Value factor, by 7 points.
Momentum
SPYSPY on the Momentum factor, by 22 points.
Lower downside
SPYSPY on Risk Resilience, by 55 points.
Analyst upside
EvenAnalyst targets are level or not covered for both names.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | SPY | TMDX | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | — | +23.9% | Level |
| Target dispersion | — | +75.6% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | — | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | — | 7 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
4 of 4 covered evidence groups favor SPY. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | SPY | 64 vs 42 |
| Fundamentals | Not covered | Not covered |
| Valuation | SPY | Value 39 vs 32 |
| Technicals | SPY | Price vs 50-day 0.7% vs 0.7%; vs 200-day 7% vs -20.9% |
| Risk Resilience | SPY | Risk Resilience 88 vs 33 |
| Analyst expectations | Not covered | Not covered |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of SPY and TMDX and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion rests on a wide gap and broad agreement. It is unlikely to turn on a single session.
- The AIQ gap is wide at 22 points. (supports the conclusion holding)
- 4 of 4 covered evidence groups point the same way. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader's advantage has been widening. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on SPY.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · May 4 – Sep 11SPY lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 16 to 22 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- SPY +22
- 64 vs 42
- 7 sessions ago
- SPY +17
- 64 vs 47
- 30 sessions ago
- SPY +16
- 67 vs 51
- 90 sessions ago
- SPY +18
- 60 vs 42
The lead has not changed hands in this window.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
4 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (6.21%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- 52-Week High Proximity — bullish, risk, long horizon (1.7%)
1 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (27.42%)
- RSI Oversold - Potential Bounce — bullish, momentum, short horizon
- ATR Expansion - Breakout Mode — neutral, volatility, short horizon (5.23%)
SPY leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +0.85%, AIQ +4 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved down over the latest session (price -3.36%, AIQ -3 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1TMDX closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 55 points behind, the largest single contributor to SPY's edge.
- 2TMDX's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3SPY's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 4 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
Split| Metric | SPY | TMDX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | — | 9.2% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | — | 100% |
| Gross margin | — | 58.7% |
| Operating margin | — | 12.2% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | — | 33% |
| Debt to equity | — | 1.67 |
Performance
SPY leads 5 of 6 windows| Metric | SPY | TMDX |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -1.1% | -5.5% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -1.7% | -8.3% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 3.6% | 11.7% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 14.6% | -32.3% |
| Year to date | 12.1% | -32.4% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 17.5% | -24.1% |
Technicals
SPY has the stronger structure| Metric | SPY | TMDX |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 48.6 | 27.6 |
| ADX (14) | 11.6 | 17.8 |
| Price vs 50-day | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| Price vs 200-day | 7% | -20.9% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 8.7% | 43.3% |
Risk
SPY is the more resilient| Metric | SPY | TMDX |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1 | 1.2 |
| Sharpe ratio | 1 | -0.25 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.44 | -0.33 |
| Max drawdown | -9.1% | -58.8% |
| Current drawdown | -1.8% | -45.4% |
| Annualized volatility | 12.9% | 57.6% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -1.4% | -5.2% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, SPY or TMDX?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, SPY is the stronger of the two as of Sep 12, 2026, scoring 64 against TMDX's 42. The edge comes from risk resilience and momentum. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is SPY or TMDX the better buy right now?
SPY carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 12, 2026, and the comparison is rated Stable — 4 of 4 covered evidence groups agree. A Stable rating means the gap is wide and the evidence is broad, so the conclusion is unlikely to turn on a single session.
Why does the AIQ Score favor SPY over TMDX?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. SPY leads Risk Resilience by 55 points; SPY leads Momentum by 22 points; SPY leads Quality by 20 points. SPY leads on all four AIQ factor dimensions. Value is itself one of those four, so the sweep is not explained by TMDX simply being cheaper — it warrants extra scrutiny for unmodeled catalysts, forward expectations or event risk the factors do not capture.
Which has more analyst upside, SPY or TMDX?
Analyst price targets imply not covered upside for SPY and +23.9% for TMDX. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, SPY or TMDX?
SPY is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. SPY on the peer-relative Value factor, by 7 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, SPY or TMDX?
Growth figures are not covered for both names. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, SPY or TMDX?
SPY on the Momentum factor, by 22 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, SPY or TMDX?
SPY is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. SPY on Risk Resilience, by 55 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is SPY more profitable than TMDX?
Margin data is not comparable for both names in the current snapshot.
Is SPY's lead over TMDX getting stronger or weaker?
SPY lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 16 to 22 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-05-04 and 2026-09-11. The lead has not changed hands in that window.
What would change the SPY vs TMDX verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: TMDX closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 55 points behind, the largest single contributor to SPY's edge; TMDX's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; SPY's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 4 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about SPY and TMDX?
SPY: 4 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. TMDX: 1 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on SPY is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On TMDX it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.