SPY vs TRV Stock Comparison
Compare SPY and TRV across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between SPY and TRV?
TRV leads the current stock comparison as The Travelers Companies, Inc., with the clearest separation coming from value and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF vs The Travelers Companies, Inc.
TRV leads
TRV leads by 3 AIQ points, primarily on Value and Momentum, having only recently taken the lead back from SPY.
Fragile: 2 of 4 evidence groups support TRV, the lead recently changed hands, and its current signal state is conflicted.
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF
The Travelers Companies, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors TRV over SPY, 63 versus 60 as of Sep 11, 2026. TRV's advantage is driven primarily by stronger value and momentum, while SPY holds the stronger risk resilience profile. TRV also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 2 of 4 covered evidence groups favor TRV today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 3 points. TRV lead: Reversed — SPY led by 14 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; TRV now leads by 3.
Compare State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF and The Travelers Companies, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare SPY and TRV against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Risk Resilience89 vs 55SPY +34
- Value39 vs 63TRV +24
- Momentum39 vs 62TRV +23
- Quality84 vs 67SPY +17
2 of 4 evidence groups favor TRV. TRV’s edge is concentrated in value and momentum; SPY keeps a meaningful risk resilience edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-10, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-09.
Largest factor move: Momentum -13
No new signals fired.
Largest factor move: Momentum -2
No new signals fired.
TRV's lead widened by 3 AIQ points in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — SPY and TRV both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
TRV (The Travelers Companies, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by value and momentum.
SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF): the counter-case, on risk resilience, quality.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
TRVTRV on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
EvenGrowth figures are not covered for both names.
Value
TRVTRV on the peer-relative Value factor, by 24 points.
Momentum
TRVTRV on the Momentum factor, by 23 points.
Lower downside
SPYSPY on Risk Resilience, by 34 points.
Analyst upside
EvenAnalyst targets are level or not covered for both names.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | SPY | TRV | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | — | -7.2% | Level |
| Target dispersion | — | +40.2% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | — | Hold | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | — | 9 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
2 of 4 covered evidence groups favor TRV. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | Even | 60 vs 63 |
| Fundamentals | Not covered | Not covered |
| Valuation | TRV | Value 39 vs 63 |
| Technicals | TRV | Price vs 50-day 0.8% vs 2.7%; vs 200-day 6.2% vs 17.2% |
| Risk Resilience | SPY | Risk Resilience 89 vs 55 |
| Analyst expectations | Not covered | Not covered |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of SPY and TRV and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 3 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 2 of 4 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on TRV.
How the comparison changed
119 daily snapshots · May 4 – Sep 10TRV lead: Reversed — SPY led by 14 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; TRV now leads by 3.
- Today
- TRV +3
- 60 vs 63
- 7 sessions ago
- Level
- 64 vs 64
- 30 sessions ago
- SPY +14
- 69 vs 55
- 90 sessions ago
- TRV +10
- 59 vs 69
The lead changed hands 5 times in this window, most recently on Aug 3 when SPY moved ahead of TRV.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
3 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (6.24%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- 52-Week High Proximity — bullish, risk, long horizon (2.5%)
3 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (16.50%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
TRV leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price is up while the AIQ Score moved down 3 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price +0.85%, AIQ -3 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +2.08%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1SPY closes the Value gap — currently 24 points behind, the largest single contributor to TRV's edge.
- 2SPY generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as MACD Bullish Crossover or Uptrend Structure Active.
- 3TRV's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 3 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
Split| Metric | SPY | TRV |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | — | 1.9% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | — | 31.9% |
| Gross margin | — | 34.7% |
| Operating margin | — | 21.3% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | — | 25.6% |
| Debt to equity | — | 0.27 |
Performance
TRV leads 6 of 6 windows| Metric | SPY | TRV |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -1% | 0.4% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -1.9% | -0.7% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 4.5% | 21.2% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 12.1% | 22.8% |
| Year to date | 11.1% | 26.7% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 16.8% | 33.9% |
Technicals
TRV has the stronger structure| Metric | SPY | TRV |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 45.1 | 53.9 |
| ADX (14) | 12.3 | 14.2 |
| Price vs 50-day | 0.8% | 2.7% |
| Price vs 200-day | 6.2% | 17.2% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 8.5% | 16.3% |
Risk
SPY is the more resilient| Metric | SPY | TRV |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1 | -0.1 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.95 | 1.34 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.38 | 2.28 |
| Max drawdown | -9.1% | -8.8% |
| Current drawdown | -2.6% | -7.5% |
| Annualized volatility | 12.9% | 20.9% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -1.4% | -2% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, SPY or TRV?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, TRV is the stronger of the two as of Sep 11, 2026, scoring 63 against SPY's 60. The edge comes from value and momentum. SPY is not without a case — it holds the better risk resilience profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is SPY or TRV the better buy right now?
TRV carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 11, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 2 of 4 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 3 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor TRV over SPY?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. SPY leads Risk Resilience by 34 points; TRV leads Value by 24 points; TRV leads Momentum by 23 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, SPY or TRV?
Analyst price targets imply not covered upside for SPY and -7.2% for TRV. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, SPY or TRV?
TRV is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. TRV on the peer-relative Value factor, by 24 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, SPY or TRV?
Growth figures are not covered for both names. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, SPY or TRV?
TRV on the Momentum factor, by 23 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, SPY or TRV?
SPY is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. SPY on Risk Resilience, by 34 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is SPY more profitable than TRV?
Margin data is not comparable for both names in the current snapshot.
Is TRV's lead over SPY getting stronger or weaker?
TRV lead: Reversed — SPY led by 14 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; TRV now leads by 3. This is measured from 119 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-05-04 and 2026-09-10. The lead has changed hands 5 times in that window, most recently on 2026-08-03, when SPY moved ahead of TRV.
What would change the SPY vs TRV verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: SPY closes the Value gap — currently 24 points behind, the largest single contributor to TRV's edge; SPY generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as MACD Bullish Crossover or Uptrend Structure Active; TRV's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 3 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about SPY and TRV?
SPY: 3 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. TRV: 3 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on SPY is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On TRV it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.