SPY vs TLT: Performance, Holdings, Fees & Risk
SPY and TLT are ETFs, but they can differ materially in exposure, yield, fees and risk. SPY is State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF, while TLT is iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF. SPY is broader by holdings count, with 505 positions versus 49 for TLT. SPY has the lower expense ratio. Current AlgovestIQ evidence has SPY ahead on AIQ Score, 66 versus 59.
What is the main difference between SPY and TLT?
TLT puts 100% of its assets in Treasuries, while SPY spreads across 11 sectors with none above 38%.
| Metric | SPY | TLT |
|---|---|---|
| Fund | ||
| Expense ratio | 0.09% | 0.15% |
| Holdings | 505 | 49 |
| Top-10 concentration | 38.2% | 40.9% |
| Distribution yieldTrailing 12 months | 0.99% | 4.86% |
| Average volume | 46,698,705 | 34,214,729 |
| Performance | ||
| 1Y return | +16.4% | -12.3% |
| YTD return | +12.8% | -8.1% |
| 5Y annualized returnTotal return, distributions reinvested | +12.7% | -7.8% |
| Risk | ||
| Annualized volatility | 12.8% | 9.6% |
| Max drawdown (1Y) | -9.1% | -16.2% |
| Max drawdown (5Y)Total return, distributions reinvested | -24.5% | -43.7% |
| Beta | 1.00 | 0.23 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.91 | -1.71 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.39 | -2.60 |
| AlgovestIQ | ||
| AIQ Score | 66/100 | 59/100 |
| AIQ Edge Score | 9/10 | 7/10 |
| Momentum | 63/100 | 60/100 |
| Risk Resilience | 88/100 | 52/100 |
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF vs iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
SPY leads
SPY leads by 7 AIQ points, primarily on Risk Resilience and Quality, but the lead has narrowed from 16 points over 30 sessions.
Fragile: 3 of 4 evidence groups support SPY, its lead is narrowing, and its current signal state is conflicted.
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors SPY over TLT, 66 versus 59 as of Oct 21, 2026. SPY's advantage is driven primarily by stronger risk resilience and quality, while TLT holds the stronger value profile. SPY also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 3 of 4 covered evidence groups favor SPY today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the leader's advantage has been narrowing. SPY lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 16 to 7 points over 30 sessions.
Compare State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF across performance, expense ratio, dividend yield, drawdown, volatility and the Algovestiq AIQ Score.
SPY vs TLT: which fits what
Each row is settled by a single measure. Where the gap is too small to matter it reads Similar, and no row decides the comparison as a whole.
| If you want | SPY | TLT | Fits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lower costExpense ratio | 0.09% | 0.15% | SPY |
| Broader diversificationNumber of holdings | 505 | 49 | SPY |
| Lower concentrationWeight of the 10 largest holdings | 38.2% | 40.9% | Similar |
| Higher incomeTrailing 12-month distribution yield | 0.99% | 4.86% | TLT |
| Smaller drawdownsMax drawdown, 5 years | -24.5% | -43.7% | SPY |
| Lower volatilityAnnualized volatility, 1 year | 12.8% | 9.6% | TLT |
Similar means the gap is within 0.01 percentage points of expense ratio, 25% more holdings, 3 points of top-10 weight, 0.2 points of yield, 2 points of drawdown or 1 point of volatility. Past drawdowns and volatility describe the funds’ history, not their future.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes for both ETFs.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare SPY and TLT against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Risk Resilience88 vs 52SPY +36
- Quality84 vs 75SPY +9
- Value41 vs 45TLT +4
- Momentum63 vs 60Even
3 of 4 evidence groups favor SPY. SPY’s edge is concentrated in risk resilience and quality; TLT keeps a meaningful value edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum +16
New signals
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
Largest factor move: Momentum +7
New signals
- RSI Overbought — bearish, momentum, short horizon
SPY's lead widened by 2 AIQ points in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — SPY and TLT both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF): the stronger current systematic profile, led by risk resilience and quality.
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF): the counter-case, on value, valuation.
Fund facts, side by side
Two funds tracking overlapping universes are separated by cost and risk far more than by holdings. Those lead here.
| Measure | SPY | TLT | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expense ratio | 0.09% | 0.15% | Lower is better — it compounds against you every year you hold. |
| Holdings | 505 | 49 | More holdings means broader diversification, not better returns. |
| Average volume | 46,698,705 | 34,214,729 | Liquidity — matters most if you trade size. |
| Annualized volatility | 12.8% | 9.6% | Lower is a steadier ride for the same exposure. |
| Max drawdown (1Y) | -9.1% | -16.2% | The worst peak-to-trough loss over the past year. |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.91 | -1.71 | Return per unit of risk. Higher is better. |
| Beta | 1.00 | 0.23 | Sensitivity to the broad market. Neither direction is better — it depends on the role in your portfolio. |
Where the exposure actually sits
Sector exposure for each fund, ordered by the size of the difference.
How much of the same holdings they own
SPY and TLT share 0% of their weighted exposure across 0 common holdings.
504 holdings are unique to SPY, and 47 holdings are unique to TLT. Owning both is genuinely additive — most of the capital sits in different securities.
TLT is the more concentrated of the two: its ten largest positions are 40.94% of the fund, against 38.17% for SPY (49 holdings vs 505). Concentration cuts both ways — it is what drives outperformance when the top names work, and what makes the drawdown deeper when they do not.
What SPY adds that TLT doesn’t
| Holding | SPY | TLT |
|---|---|---|
| NVDANVIDIA CORP | 8.08% | Not held |
| AAPLAPPLE INC | 7.33% | Not held |
| MSFTMICROSOFT CORP | 5.59% | Not held |
| AMZNAMAZON.COM INC | 3.77% | Not held |
| GOOGLALPHABET INC CL A | 2.98% | Not held |
| AVGOBROADCOM INC | 2.61% | Not held |
What TLT adds that SPY doesn’t
| Holding | TLT | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| TREASURY BOND 4.75% 05/15/2055 | 4.53% | Not held |
| TREASURY BOND 4.63% 05/15/2054 | 4.3% | Not held |
| TREASURY BOND 4.13% 08/15/2053 | 4.2% | Not held |
| TREASURY BOND (2OLD) 4.75% 02/15/2056 | 4.15% | Not held |
| TREASURY BOND 4.25% 02/15/2054 | 4.06% | Not held |
| TREASURY BOND (OLD) 5.00% 05/15/2056 | 4.04% | Not held |
Each list is a fund’s largest positions by weight that the other fund does not hold, or holds at less than half the weight.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 4 covered evidence groups favor SPY. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | SPY | 66 vs 59 |
| Fundamentals | Not covered | Not covered |
| Valuation | TLT | Value 41 vs 45 |
| Technicals | SPY | Price vs 50-day 0.6% vs -0.5%; vs 200-day 5.9% vs -5.6% |
| Risk Resilience | SPY | Risk Resilience 88 vs 52 |
| Analyst expectations | Not covered | Not covered |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of SPY and TLT and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 7 points.
- The leader's advantage has been narrowing. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on SPY.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20SPY lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 16 to 7 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- SPY +7
- 66 vs 59
- 7 sessions ago
- SPY +10
- 66 vs 56
- 30 sessions ago
- SPY +16
- 66 vs 50
- 90 sessions ago
- SPY +20
- 70 vs 50
The lead changed hands once in this window, most recently on Jun 24 when TLT moved ahead of SPY.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
4 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only SPY
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (5.84%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- 52-Week High Proximity — bullish, risk, long horizon (1.2%)
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
1 bullish / 3 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted
Only TLT
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (5.27%)
- RSI Overbought — bearish, momentum, short horizon
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
Both carry 1 more signal that do not separate them: ATR Contraction - Coiling.
SPY leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +0.53%, AIQ +4 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +0.14%, AIQ +2 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1TLT closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 36 points behind, the largest single contributor to SPY's edge.
- 2TLT's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3SPY's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 4 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4The narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 9 points over 30 sessions, and a further 7-point move would eliminate SPY's advantage entirely.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Performance
SPY leads 5 of 6 windows| Metric | SPY | TLT |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -1.2% | 2.2% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -0.6% | -2% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 2.9% | -4% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 9.2% | -7.4% |
| Year to date | 12.8% | -8.1% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 16.4% | -12.3% |
Technicals
SPY has the stronger structure| Metric | SPY | TLT |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 56.2 | 72.9 |
| ADX (14) | 12.5 | 26.2 |
| Price vs 50-day | 0.6% | -0.5% |
| Price vs 200-day | 5.9% | -5.6% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 9% | 11.7% |
Risk
SPY is the more resilient| Metric | SPY | TLT |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1 | 0.23 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.91 | -1.71 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.39 | -2.6 |
| Max drawdown | -9.1% | -16.2% |
| Current drawdown | -1.3% | -13% |
| Annualized volatility | 12.8% | 9.6% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -1.4% | -1.1% |
Straight answers
Short answers to the questions fund investors ask about this pair, from the figures above.
What is the difference between SPY and TLT?
TLT puts 100% of its assets in Treasuries, while SPY spreads across 11 sectors with none above 38%.
How much do SPY and TLT overlap?
SPY and TLT share 0% of their weighted exposure across 0 common holdings. 504 holdings are unique to SPY, and 47 holdings are unique to TLT. Owning both is genuinely additive — most of the capital sits in different securities.
Which ETF is more diversified, SPY or TLT?
SPY holds more positions: 505 versus 49 for TLT.
Which has the lower expense ratio?
SPY has the lower expense ratio, 0.09% a year against 0.15% for TLT.
Which ETF has the higher distribution yield?
TLT, with a trailing 12-month distribution yield of 4.86% against 0.99% for SPY.
Which ETF has been more volatile?
SPY has been more volatile over the past year, at 12.8% annualized against 9.6% for TLT.
Which ETF has had the smaller drawdown?
SPY fell less from peak to trough over the past five years: -24.5% against -43.7% for TLT.
Compare SPY and TLT with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.