ETF Analysis
TLT ETF: 20+ Year Treasury Yield, Duration and Risk
TLT answer
TLT, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, holds U.S. Treasury bonds with more than 20 years left to maturity. That long maturity gives it a long duration: when long-term interest rates rise, TLT's price falls sharply, and when they fall it rises, by far more than a short-term Treasury fund. TLT's annualized volatility is 9.62% and its maximum drawdown over the past year is -16.24%. Its expense ratio is 0.15%, and it manages $40.51B.
- Expense ratio
- 0.15%
- Fund size
- $40.51B
- Annual volatility
- 9.62%
- Max drawdown
- -16.24%
- 1Y price return
- -12.5%
- Holdings
- 49
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) currently has an AIQ Score of 59/100, indicating a neutral setup. Quality is the strongest factor at 75/100. Sentiment is the weakest current factor at 44/100. Performance, momentum, risk, distribution, and exposure evidence should be read together at the latest market-close snapshot.
TLT at a Glance
Crawlable current metrics from the latest market-close ETF snapshot.
| Metric | Current |
|---|---|
| Price | $80.24 |
| AIQ Score | 59/100 |
| Overall View | Neutral |
| Technical Analysis Consensus | Neutral |
| Fund Size | $40.51B |
| Expense Ratio | 0.15% |
| Holdings Count | 49 |
| NAV | $79.44 |
| Asset Class | Fixed Income |
| Primary Exposure | Treasuries (100.01%) |
| Issuer | IShares |
| Domicile | US |
| Inception Date | Jul 22, 2002 |
| Distribution Yield | 4.90% |
| Beta | 2.4 |
| Average Volume | 34.21M |
| 52-week range | $76.43-$92.19 |
| RSI 14 | 74.42 |
| 50-Day SMA | $80.59 |
| 200-Day SMA | $84.84 |
| Risk Score | 53/100 |
| Momentum Score | 60/100 |
| Value Exposure Score | 45/100 |
TLT Long-Horizon ETF Performance
Trailing returns, growth of $10,000, drawdown history, and calendar-year returns from available daily closes.
| Period | Total return | Annualized | Max drawdown | Start date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | -12.47% | -12.48% | -16.24% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| 3Y | -3.74% | -1.26% | -23.90% | Oct 20, 2023 |
| 5Y | -44.40% | -11.09% | -50.04% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| 10Y | -44.40% | -11.09% | -50.04% | Oct 22, 2021 |
Growth of $10,000
Indexed to the first available close in this history window.
Drawdown History
Peak-to-trough decline from each prior high over the available window.
Calendar-Year Returns
Full-year returns where available, with the current calendar year shown as YTD.
TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Financial Services / Asset Management - Bonds
Low Priority
Above Peers
Latest quote
- Momentum60
- Value45
- Quality75
- Risk resilience53
- Sentiment44
TLT ETF Analysis Summary
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) currently has an AIQ Score of 59/100, indicating a neutral setup. Quality is the strongest factor at 75/100. Sentiment is the weakest current factor at 44/100. Performance, exposure, distribution, momentum, and risk evidence should be read together at the latest market-close snapshot.
In a neutral regime, TLT has AIQ Score of 59/100 with Quality base of 75/100 and fading Sentiment at 44/100. Wait for component alignment before adding exposure.
Quality (75/100) leads while Sentiment (44/100) lags. This cross-factor spread creates entry timing uncertainty.
Financial Services · 0.14% ETF move · TLT classified in Asset Management - Bonds.
Current Evidence
AlgovestIQ Evidence Summary
Current consensus, supporting evidence, recent changes, and what would strengthen or weaken the view.
Is TLT Bullish or Bearish Right Now?
TLT currently has a neutral overall setup. Quality is the strongest factor at 75/100, while Sentiment is weakest at 44/100. The current evidence suggests a mixed rather than strongly bullish or bearish setup.
- - Quality is supportive at 75/100.
- - Momentum is constructive at 60/100.
- - Technical consensus has more buy votes than sell votes (25 vs 19).
- - Price is -5.42% below its 200-day SMA.
Current Consensus
TLT's Technical Analysis Consensus is currently Neutral, with 25 buy, 1 neutral, and 19 sell votes. TLT's 14-day RSI is 74.42, which places the ETF in an overbought momentum range. TLT's beta is 2.4, indicating greater market sensitivity than the broad market.
What Changed in TLT?
The largest recent change in TLT is Momentum moving up by 23.0 points over the available 7-day comparison window. Quality remains the strongest visible factor.
What Would Change the TLT Outlook?
The current neutral outlook could improve if AIQ moves above 70, momentum recovers, risk resilience improves, and price confirms a stronger trend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. It would weaken if AIQ falls below 40, price loses long-term moving-average support, distribution or liquidity context deteriorates, or risk evidence worsens.
AIQ > 70, RSI above 55, price above SMA-50/SMA-200, and positive market-context evidence.
AIQ below 40, RSI below 45, loss of SMA-200, negative revisions, or rising volatility and drawdown risk.
TLT Decision Framework
Public evidence layers, setup checks, and risk context for iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) ETF Analysis
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF has an AIQ Score of 59/100 in a Neutral regime. Quality is strongest at 75/100. Beta is 2.4, above market sensitivity. Review the supporting etf factors together before drawing a conclusion from any single score.
| Evidence Layer | Public Evidence |
|---|---|
| Regime Context | TLT is in a Neutral AIQ regime with score 59/100. |
| Signal Conflict | The primary conflict is that quality leads at 75/100 while sentiment lags at 44/100. |
| Factor Evidence | Momentum 60/100 · Value 45/100 · Quality 75/100 · Risk 53/100 · Sentiment 44/100 |
| Persistence | Current snapshot evidence is shown; historical persistence remains in AIQ Pro. |
Current Setup Checklist
Quality is the strongest factor at 75/100.
Momentum is 60/100 and RSI (14) is 74.4.
TLT is in a Neutral regime at 59/100.
Risk factor is 53/100 with beta 2.4 and annual volatility 9.62%.
Current conflict: quality leads at 75/100 while sentiment lags at 44/100.
TLT Research Cluster
ETF-specific paths for performance, risk, distributions, market context, data, comparisons, and news.
TLT ETF Analytics
TLT holdings context, yield, risk, valuation exposure, momentum, and AIQ evidence.
TLT Technical Analysis
TLT technical setup based on RSI, MACD, moving averages, AIQ Momentum, volume, trend, volatility, and pivots.
TLT ETF Market Context
Track TLT market context, news pressure, trend changes, income events, and current allocation evidence.
TLT Distribution Analysis
TLT distribution yield, annualized distributions, payment history, and income context.
TLT ETF Data
TLT available fund data, market metrics, technical readings, risk measures, and AIQ evidence.
TLT Risk Analysis
TLT volatility, beta, drawdown, Sharpe ratio, VaR, and downside resilience.
TLT ETF News
TLT ETF news, market tone, recent headlines, and catalyst context.
TLT vs Bond ETF Peers
Current peer cohort: TLT · SHY · AGG · GLD · BND. Compare AIQ, factor scores, Sharpe ratio and 1-year volatility in one indexable view.
| Peer | AIQ | Value | Momentum | Risk | Sharpe | 1Y Volatility | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT Current ETF | 59/100 | 45/100 | 60/100 | 53/100 | -1.74 | 9.62% | Current |
| SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 56/100 | 36/100 | 57/100 | 72/100 | -3.5 | 1.75% | TLT vs SHY |
| AGG iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | 65/100 | 45/100 | 59/100 | 94/100 | -2.33 | 4.21% | TLT vs AGG |
| GLD SPDR Gold Shares | 57/100 | — | 39/100 | 58/100 | -0.2 | 29.17% | TLT vs GLD |
| BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | 62/100 | 36/100 | 59/100 | 94/100 | -2.37 | 4.08% | TLT vs BND |
Peer cohort is resolved dynamically from the AlgovestIQ universe taxonomy and Compare relationship graph. Data as of Oct 21, 2026.
Popular TLT Comparisons
How TLT scores against the names it is most often compared with.
About the AIQ Score
Methodology for the current ETF evidence.
The AlgovestIQ AIQ Score combines multiple dimensions of ETF evidence, including momentum, valuation exposure, quality, risk resilience, sentiment context, and timing signals. It is a descriptive research score, not a guarantee of future performance or a personalized recommendation.
View AIQ methodologyFactor Diagnostics
A compact bridge from the AIQ score to the evidence tabs.
Valuation exposure across the fund's holdings.
Quality context inferred from fund exposure and available evidence.
Trend, momentum, volume, and timing confirmation.
Resilience, volatility, beta, drawdown, and tail risk.
News and event pressure around the setup.
Open the return calculator with ETF context while purchase price, shares, dates and fees remain user inputs.
AIQ Component Profile
Compare the five component scores on one consistent 0–100 scale.
Review earnings timing, revisions, news pressure, and prior event reactions in one place.
Open catalystsNo quarterly financial rows in this snapshot.
Checked Oct 21, 2026
Explore factor drivers, conflicts, persistence, and scenario sensitivity in the advanced workspace.
ETF Analytics Snapshot
Current ETF evidence uses fund profile, cost, size, distribution, momentum, and risk fields.
ETF pages use fund-native profile fields for cost, size, liquidity, holdings breadth, NAV, issuer, and launch date.
Market Confirmation
Technicals are summarized first, with the indicator library behind it.
Risk Alignment
Higher resilience is stronger; exposure metrics stay separate.
Continue Researching TLT
Open the detailed evidence pages and workflows behind the ETF overview read.
Premium Feature
Full AIQ Analysis
AIQ Intelligence
AIQ Pro for TLT
Scenario Analysis
AIQ Scenario Builder
Portfolio Implication
Related Links
TLT ETF FAQ
What is TLT?
TLT is the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF. It holds long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, so it carries almost no credit risk but a great deal of interest-rate risk.
Why does TLT go down when rates rise?
Bond prices move opposite to interest rates, and the longer a bond's maturity the larger the move. TLT holds bonds maturing in 20 years or more, so a rise in long-term yields cuts its price sharply; its maximum drawdown over the past year is -16.24%.
What is TLT's expense ratio?
TLT's expense ratio is 0.15% a year.