TSM vs UPST Stock Comparison
Compare TSM and UPST across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between TSM and UPST?
TSM leads the current stock comparison as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, with the clearest separation coming from quality and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited vs Upstart Holdings, Inc.
TSM leads
TSM leads by 37 AIQ points, primarily on Quality and Momentum, and the lead has widened from 23 points over 30 sessions. Wall Street currently favors UPST on target upside.
Stable: 5 of 6 evidence groups support TSM, its lead is widening, and its signal state is cleanly positive.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
Upstart Holdings, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors TSM over UPST, 70 versus 33 as of Sep 11, 2026. TSM's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality and momentum. TSM also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors UPST. 5 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TSM today, and the comparison is rated Stable on stability. TSM lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 23 to 37 points over 30 sessions. TSM leads on all four AIQ factor dimensions. Value is itself one of those four, so a sweep is not explained by valuation alone — it deserves additional scrutiny for unmodeled catalysts, expectations or event risk.
Compare Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited and Upstart Holdings, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare TSM and UPST against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Quality96 vs 38TSM +58
- Momentum74 vs 25TSM +49
- Risk Resilience68 vs 27TSM +41
- Value42 vs 37TSM +5
5 of 6 evidence groups favor TSM. TSM’s edge is concentrated in quality and momentum.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-10, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-09.
Largest factor move: Momentum -8
No new signals fired.
Largest factor move: Momentum +1
No new signals fired.
TSM's lead narrowed by 2 AIQ points in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — TSM and UPST both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality and momentum.
UPST (Upstart Holdings, Inc.): the counter-case, on analyst expectations — but at materially higher volatility, 55.3% against 27.3%.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
TSMTSM on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
TSMTSM on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
TSMTSM on the peer-relative Value factor, by 5 points.
Momentum
TSMTSM on the Momentum factor, by 49 points.
Lower downside
TSMTSM on Risk Resilience, by 41 points.
Analyst upside
UPSTUPST on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors TSM, analyst targets favor UPST. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | TSM | UPST | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +32.2% | +57.6% | UPST has more room |
| Target dispersion | +38.4% | +52.1% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 7 | 7 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
5 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TSM. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | TSM | 70 vs 33 |
| Fundamentals | TSMon balance | revenue growth 12% vs -16.5%; EPS growth 22.1% vs 3.5%; TTM ROE 39.3% vs 7.9%; gross margin 64.2% vs 74.4%; operating margin 56% vs 4.2% — TSM takes 4 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | TSM | Value 42 vs 37 |
| Technicals | TSM | Price vs 50-day 3.4% vs -14%; vs 200-day 14.1% vs -25.9% |
| Risk Resilience | TSM | Risk Resilience 68 vs 27 |
| Analyst expectations | UPST | Target upside 32.2% vs 57.6% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of TSM and UPST and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion rests on a wide gap and broad agreement. It is unlikely to turn on a single session.
- The AIQ gap is wide at 37 points. (supports the conclusion holding)
- 5 of 6 covered evidence groups point the same way. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader's advantage has been widening. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader's signal state is cleanly positive. (supports the conclusion holding)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on TSM.
How the comparison changed
119 daily snapshots · May 4 – Sep 10TSM lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 23 to 37 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- TSM +37
- 70 vs 33
- 7 sessions ago
- TSM +32
- 68 vs 36
- 30 sessions ago
- TSM +23
- 63 vs 40
- 90 sessions ago
- TSM +20
- 61 vs 41
The lead has not changed hands in this window.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
4 bullish / 0 bearish
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (11.73%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
1 bullish / 4 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (13.89%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- BB Lower Band Breach — bullish, volatility, short horizon
UPST is conflicted, so the timing case there is weaker than the score alone suggests.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price is up while the AIQ Score moved down 2 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price +1.22%, AIQ -2 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +1.95%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1UPST closes the Quality gap — currently 58 points behind, the largest single contributor to TSM's edge.
- 2UPST's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3TSM's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
TSM leads on balance| Metric | TSM | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 12% | -16.5% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 22.1% | 3.5% |
| Gross margin | 64.2% | 74.4% |
| Operating margin | 56% | 4.2% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 39.3% | 7.9% |
| Debt to equity | 0.15 | 2.54 |
Performance
TSM leads 6 of 6 windows| Metric | TSM | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 3% | -10.9% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -0.3% | -13.7% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 4.7% | -17.2% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 20.7% | -8.6% |
| Year to date | 40.9% | -42.1% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 73.2% | -63.2% |
Technicals
TSM has the stronger structure| Metric | TSM | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 57.7 | 31.7 |
| ADX (14) | 9.6 | 14.1 |
| Price vs 50-day | 3.4% | -14% |
| Price vs 200-day | 14.1% | -25.9% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 27.3% | 55.3% |
Risk
TSM is the more resilient| Metric | TSM | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.17 | 2.92 |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.43 | -1.25 |
| Sortino ratio | 2.31 | -1.99 |
| Max drawdown | -21.6% | -64.9% |
| Current drawdown | -10.4% | -63.6% |
| Annualized volatility | 40.4% | 66.4% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -4.1% | -7.3% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, TSM or UPST?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, TSM is the stronger of the two as of Sep 11, 2026, scoring 70 against UPST's 33. The edge comes from quality and momentum. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is TSM or UPST the better buy right now?
TSM carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 11, 2026, and the comparison is rated Stable — 5 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Stable rating means the gap is wide and the evidence is broad, so the conclusion is unlikely to turn on a single session.
Why does the AIQ Score favor TSM over UPST?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. TSM leads Quality by 58 points; TSM leads Momentum by 49 points; TSM leads Risk Resilience by 41 points. TSM leads on all four AIQ factor dimensions. Value is itself one of those four, so the sweep is not explained by UPST simply being cheaper — it warrants extra scrutiny for unmodeled catalysts, forward expectations or event risk the factors do not capture.
Which has more analyst upside, TSM or UPST?
Analyst price targets imply +32.2% upside for TSM and +57.6% for UPST, so the Street currently favors UPST. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors TSM. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, TSM or UPST?
TSM is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. TSM on the peer-relative Value factor, by 5 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, TSM or UPST?
TSM on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, TSM or UPST?
TSM on the Momentum factor, by 49 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, TSM or UPST?
TSM is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. TSM on Risk Resilience, by 41 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is TSM more profitable than UPST?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 64.2% vs 74.4%; operating margin 56% vs 4.2%; ttm roe 39.3% vs 7.9%. TSM leads on two measures and UPST on one measure, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is TSM's lead over UPST getting stronger or weaker?
TSM lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 23 to 37 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 119 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-05-04 and 2026-09-10. The lead has not changed hands in that window.
What would change the TSM vs UPST verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: UPST closes the Quality gap — currently 58 points behind, the largest single contributor to TSM's edge; UPST's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; TSM's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about TSM and UPST?
TSM: 4 bullish / 0 bearish. UPST: 1 bullish / 4 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on TSM is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On UPST it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare TSM and UPST with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.