COST vs HD Stock Comparison
COST currently leads HD in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 62 vs 58. The clearest difference is risk resilience, while HD has the stronger value profile.
What is the main difference between COST and HD?
COST leads the current stock comparison as Costco Wholesale Corporation, with the clearest separation coming from risk resilience and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Costco Wholesale Corporation vs The Home Depot, Inc.
COST leads
COST leads by 4 AIQ points, primarily on Risk Resilience and Momentum, but the lead has narrowed from 12 points over 30 sessions. Wall Street currently favors HD on target upside.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support COST, its lead is narrowing, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Costco Wholesale Corporation
The Home Depot, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors COST over HD, 62 versus 58 as of Oct 21, 2026. COST's advantage is driven primarily by stronger risk resilience and momentum, while HD holds the stronger value profile. COST also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors HD. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor COST today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 4 points. COST lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 12 to 4 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Costco Wholesale Corporation and The Home Depot, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare COST and HD against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Risk Resilience71 vs 57COST +14
- Momentum95 vs 86COST +9
- Quality60 vs 55COST +5
- Value32 vs 37HD +5
3 of 6 evidence groups favor COST. COST’s edge is concentrated in risk resilience and momentum; HD keeps a meaningful value edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Risk Resilience +1, not enough on its own to move the overall score.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 4 active signals are unchanged.
Largest factor move: Momentum +14
New signals
- BB Upper Band Breach — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- EMA Ribbon Compression — neutral, trend, medium horizon
COST's lead narrowed by 4 AIQ points in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — COST and HD both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
COST (Costco Wholesale Corporation): the stronger current systematic profile, led by risk resilience and momentum.
HD (The Home Depot, Inc.): the counter-case, on value, fundamentals, valuation — but at materially higher volatility, 27.1% against 17.2%.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
COSTCOST on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
HDHD on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
HDHD on the peer-relative Value factor, by 5 points.
Momentum
COSTCOST on the Momentum factor, by 9 points.
Lower downside
COSTCOST on Risk Resilience, by 14 points.
Analyst upside
HDHD on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors COST, analyst targets favor HD. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | COST | HD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +11.3% | +18.5% | HD has more room |
| Target dispersion | +28.8% | +28.2% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 11 | 14 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Dividend growth
| Dividend metric | COST | HD |
|---|---|---|
| 5Y dividend CAGR | 12.97% | 8.92% |
| 2020 regular DPS | $2.750 | $6.000 |
| 2025 regular DPS | $5.060 | $9.200 |
| Years increased | 5 | 5 |
| No cut in window | Yes | Yes |
| Cohort rank | #52 | #126 |
COST grew its split-adjusted regular dividend faster over 2020–2025 — 12.97% a year against HD's 8.92%. Neither company reduced its regular dividend in any year of the window.
Yield and payout ratio shown elsewhere on this page are current values, not part of the study window.
Split-adjusted regular dividends per share, 2020–2025, excluding special dividends. Research as of Sep 19, 2026.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor COST. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | COST | 62 vs 58 |
| Fundamentals | HD | revenue growth 1.3% vs 14.6%; EPS growth 7.9% vs 44.7%; TTM ROE 28.3% vs 102.7%; gross margin 12.9% vs 33.2%; operating margin 3.8% vs 12.4% |
| Valuation | HD | Value 32 vs 37 |
| Technicals | COST | Price vs 50-day 6.7% vs 0.8%; vs 200-day 2.8% vs -6.2% |
| Risk Resilience | COST | Risk Resilience 71 vs 57 |
| Analyst expectations | HD | Target upside 11.3% vs 18.5% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of COST and HD and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 4 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's advantage has been narrowing. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on COST.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20COST lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 12 to 4 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- COST +4
- 62 vs 58
- 7 sessions ago
- COST +10
- 62 vs 52
- 30 sessions ago
- COST +12
- 54 vs 42
- 90 sessions ago
- COST +8
- 52 vs 44
The lead changed hands 3 times in this window, most recently on Sep 10 when COST moved ahead of HD.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
2 bullish / 2 bearish, conflicted
No signal that the other name lacks.
2 bullish / 3 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only HD
- BB Upper Band Breach — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- EMA Ribbon Compression — neutral, trend, medium horizon
Both carry 4 more signals that do not separate them: Death Cross Active, Keltner Channel Breakout, RSI Overbought, MACD Bullish Crossover.
COST leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +0.37%, AIQ 0 points).
Price is down while the AIQ Score moved up 4 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price -0.31%, AIQ +4 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1HD closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 14 points behind, the largest single contributor to COST's edge.
- 2HD's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3COST's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 2 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once.
- 4The narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 8 points over 30 sessions, and a further 4-point move would eliminate COST's advantage entirely.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
HD leads on balance| Metric | COST | HD |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 1.3% | 14.6% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 7.9% | 44.7% |
| Gross margin | 12.9% | 33.2% |
| Operating margin | 3.8% | 12.4% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 28.3% | 102.7% |
| Debt to equity | 0.25 | 3.77 |
Performance
COST leads 5 of 6 windows| Metric | COST | HD |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 4.2% | 7.2% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | 10.6% | 3.2% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 7.3% | -4.9% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -1.1% | -8.4% |
| Year to date | 15.3% | -8.4% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 6.4% | -18.7% |
Technicals
COST has the stronger structure| Metric | COST | HD |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 86 | 80.8 |
| ADX (14) | 31.5 | 26.5 |
| Price vs 50-day | 6.7% | 0.8% |
| Price vs 200-day | 2.8% | -6.2% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 17.2% | 27.1% |
Risk
COST is the more resilient| Metric | COST | HD |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.18 | 0.71 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.21 | -0.85 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.31 | -1.52 |
| Max drawdown | -18.3% | -28.3% |
| Current drawdown | -9.1% | -19.6% |
| Annualized volatility | 19.7% | 26.3% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -2.1% | -2.5% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, COST or HD?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, COST is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 62 against HD's 58. The edge comes from risk resilience and momentum. HD is not without a case — it holds the better value profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is COST or HD the better buy right now?
COST carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 4 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor COST over HD?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. COST leads Risk Resilience by 14 points; COST leads Momentum by 9 points; COST leads Quality by 5 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, COST or HD?
Analyst price targets imply +11.3% upside for COST and +18.5% for HD, so the Street currently favors HD. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors COST. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, COST or HD?
HD is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. HD on the peer-relative Value factor, by 5 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, COST or HD?
HD on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, COST or HD?
COST on the Momentum factor, by 9 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, COST or HD?
COST is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. COST on Risk Resilience, by 14 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is COST more profitable than HD?
HD leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 12.9% vs 33.2%; operating margin 3.8% vs 12.4%; ttm roe 28.3% vs 102.7%.
Is COST's lead over HD getting stronger or weaker?
COST lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 12 to 4 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has changed hands 3 times in that window, most recently on 2026-09-10, when COST moved ahead of HD.
What would change the COST vs HD verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: HD closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 14 points behind, the largest single contributor to COST's edge; HD's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; COST's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 2 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once; the narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 8 points over 30 sessions, and a further 4-point move would eliminate COST's advantage entirely.
What do the current signals say about COST and HD?
COST: 2 bullish / 2 bearish, conflicted. HD: 2 bullish / 3 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on COST is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On HD it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare COST and HD with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.