LLY Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is the study of price and volume data to infer the balance of supply and demand at any given price level. Unlike fundamental analysis, which asks what a business is worth, technical analysis asks what the market is currently doing -- which participants are active, how strong the prevailing trend is, and where the next likely inflection points are. The utility of technicals is not prediction; no indicator reliably predicts the future. The utility is systematic description: reducing ambiguity about trend direction, momentum quality, and volatility regime so that position-sizing and timing decisions can be made with more structure and less emotion.

Moving averages are the foundational trend filter. A price trading above its 200-day SMA is generally in a long-term uptrend; below it, a long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA captures medium-term trend. Crossovers (the 50-day crossing above or below the 200-day -- the 'golden cross' and 'death cross') are widely watched but are lagging signals: by the time a confirmed cross occurs, the price has already moved substantially. The practical value of moving averages is less in their crossovers and more in the slope and spread -- a rising SMA-50 with price running well above it indicates strong trend; a flat SMA-200 with price oscillating around it indicates a range-bound, directionless environment.

RSI and MACD are momentum oscillators, not reversal triggers. RSI above 70 does not mean sell; in strong uptrends, RSI can remain in the 70-80 zone for weeks or months as the trend continues. The most actionable RSI signal is divergence: price making new highs while RSI makes lower highs (bearish divergence), or price making new lows while RSI makes higher lows (bullish divergence). These patterns indicate the price trend is not confirmed by underlying momentum, which often precedes a reversal. MACD histogram expansion indicates momentum is accelerating; contraction indicates momentum is fading, even if price is still moving in the same direction.

Volume analysis is the confirmation layer. Price movements without volume are structurally weak -- they may reflect low-conviction moves that reverse when more participants enter. OBV (on-balance volume) tracks whether volume is flowing into or out of a stock on up vs. down days; a rising OBV alongside a rising price suggests institutional accumulation; a declining OBV alongside a rising price is a warning of distribution-in-progress. The Chaikin Money Flow indicator combines price and volume into a single accumulation/distribution reading: sustained positive values above +0.2 indicate institutional buying pressure; sustained negative values indicate selling pressure.