ETF Analysis
USO ETF: Oil Futures Exposure, Holdings, Fees and Risks
USO answer
USO, the United States Oil Fund, does not hold barrels of oil: it holds WTI crude oil futures contracts plus cash and Treasury bills as collateral; its largest holding is Wti Crude Future Nov26 (44.8% of holdings). Before each contract expires USO sells it and buys a later one. When later contracts cost more than near ones (contango) that roll loses money, and when they cost less (backwardation) it adds, so USO's return can drift well away from the spot oil price over time. USO's expense ratio is 0.86%, its annualized volatility is 49.57% and its maximum drawdown over the past year is -32.49%.
- Main holding
- Wti Crude Future Nov26 (44.8% of holdings)
- Expense ratio
- 0.86%
- Fund size
- $19.13B
- Annual volatility
- 49.57%
- Max drawdown
- -32.49%
- 1Y price return
- +136.8%
United States Oil Fund, LP (USO) currently has an AIQ Score of 64/100, indicating a neutral setup. Momentum is the strongest factor at 79/100. Risk is the weakest current factor at 24/100. Performance, momentum, risk, distribution, and exposure evidence should be read together at the latest market-close snapshot.
USO at a Glance
Crawlable current metrics from the latest market-close ETF snapshot.
| Metric | Current |
|---|---|
| Price | $159.80 |
| AIQ Score | 64/100 |
| Overall View | Neutral |
| Technical Analysis Consensus | Strong Buy |
| Fund Size | $19.13B |
| Expense Ratio | 0.86% |
| Holdings Count | 25 |
| NAV | $159.94 |
| Asset Class | Commodities |
| Primary Exposure | Cash & Others (100.00%) |
| Issuer | USCF |
| Domicile | US |
| Inception Date | Apr 10, 2006 |
| Distribution Yield | — |
| Beta | 2.22 |
| Average Volume | 5.84M |
| 52-week range | $65.99-$163.35 |
| RSI 14 | 67.62 |
| 50-Day SMA | $144.88 |
| 200-Day SMA | $120.63 |
| Risk Score | 24/100 |
| Momentum Score | 79/100 |
| Value Exposure Score | — |
USO Long-Horizon ETF Performance
Trailing returns, growth of $10,000, drawdown history, and calendar-year returns from available daily closes.
| Period | Total return | Annualized | Max drawdown | Start date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 136.78% | 136.92% | -32.49% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| 3Y | 99.02% | 25.78% | -32.49% | Oct 20, 2023 |
| 5Y | 177.73% | 22.74% | -36.23% | Oct 25, 2021 |
| 10Y | 177.73% | 22.74% | -36.23% | Oct 25, 2021 |
Growth of $10,000
Indexed to the first available close in this history window.
Drawdown History
Peak-to-trough decline from each prior high over the available window.
Calendar-Year Returns
Full-year returns where available, with the current calendar year shown as YTD.
USOUnited States Oil Fund, LP
Financial Services / Asset Management
Relative Leader / Watch
Strong Relative Position
Latest quote
- Momentum79
- Value—
- Quality72
- Risk resilience24
- Sentiment—
USO ETF Analysis Summary
United States Oil Fund, LP (USO) currently has an AIQ Score of 64/100, indicating a neutral setup. Momentum is the strongest factor at 79/100. Risk resilience is the weakest current factor at 24/100. Performance, exposure, distribution, momentum, and risk evidence should be read together at the latest market-close snapshot.
In a neutral regime, USO has AIQ Score of 64/100 with Momentum base of 79/100 and fading Risk resilience at 24/100. Wait for component alignment before adding exposure.
Momentum (79/100) leads while Risk resilience (24/100) lags. This cross-factor spread creates entry timing uncertainty.
Financial Services · -0.50% ETF move · USO classified in Asset Management.
Current Evidence
AlgovestIQ Evidence Summary
Current consensus, supporting evidence, recent changes, and what would strengthen or weaken the view.
Is USO Bullish or Bearish Right Now?
USO currently has a neutral overall setup. Momentum is the strongest factor at 79/100, while Risk Resilience is weakest at 24/100. The current evidence suggests a mixed rather than strongly bullish or bearish setup.
- - Quality is supportive at 72/100.
- - Momentum is constructive at 79/100.
- - Price is +10.30% above its 50-day SMA.
- - Technical consensus has more buy votes than sell votes (36 vs 7).
- - Risk Resilience is weak at 24/100.
Current Consensus
USO's Technical Analysis Consensus is currently Strong Buy, with 36 buy, 2 neutral, and 7 sell votes. USO's 14-day RSI is 67.62, which places the ETF in a constructive momentum range. USO's beta is 2.22, indicating greater market sensitivity than the broad market.
What Changed in USO?
The largest recent change in USO is Momentum moving up by 17.0 points over the available 7-day comparison window. Momentum remains the strongest visible factor.
What Would Change the USO Outlook?
The current neutral outlook could improve if AIQ moves above 70, momentum recovers, risk resilience improves, and price confirms a stronger trend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. It would weaken if AIQ falls below 40, price loses long-term moving-average support, distribution or liquidity context deteriorates, or risk evidence worsens.
AIQ > 70, RSI above 55, price above SMA-50/SMA-200, and positive market-context evidence.
AIQ below 40, RSI below 45, loss of SMA-200, negative revisions, or rising volatility and drawdown risk.
USO Decision Framework
Public evidence layers, setup checks, and risk context for United States Oil Fund, LP.
United States Oil Fund, LP (USO) ETF Analysis
United States Oil Fund, LP has an AIQ Score of 64/100 in a Neutral regime. Momentum is strongest at 79/100. Beta is 2.22, above market sensitivity. Review the supporting etf factors together before drawing a conclusion from any single score.
| Evidence Layer | Public Evidence |
|---|---|
| Regime Context | USO is in a Neutral AIQ regime with score 64/100. |
| Signal Conflict | The primary conflict is that momentum leads at 79/100 while risk lags at 24/100. |
| Factor Evidence | Momentum 79/100 · Quality 72/100 · Risk 24/100 |
| Persistence | Current snapshot evidence is shown; historical persistence remains in AIQ Pro. |
Current Setup Checklist
Momentum is the strongest factor at 79/100.
Momentum is 79/100 and RSI (14) is 67.6.
USO is in a Neutral regime at 64/100.
Risk factor is 24/100 with beta 2.22 and annual volatility 49.57%.
Current conflict: momentum leads at 79/100 while risk lags at 24/100.
USO Research Cluster
ETF-specific paths for performance, risk, distributions, market context, data, comparisons, and news.
USO ETF Analytics
USO holdings context, yield, risk, valuation exposure, momentum, and AIQ evidence.
USO Technical Analysis
USO technical setup based on RSI, MACD, moving averages, AIQ Momentum, volume, trend, volatility, and pivots.
USO ETF Market Context
Track USO market context, news pressure, trend changes, income events, and current allocation evidence.
USO Distribution Analysis
USO distribution yield, annualized distributions, payment history, and income context.
USO ETF Data
USO available fund data, market metrics, technical readings, risk measures, and AIQ evidence.
USO Risk Analysis
USO volatility, beta, drawdown, Sharpe ratio, VaR, and downside resilience.
USO ETF News
USO ETF news, market tone, recent headlines, and catalyst context.
USO vs Commodities Peers
Current peer cohort: USO · WEAT · CANE · COPX · CPER. Compare AIQ, factor scores, Sharpe ratio and 1-year volatility in one indexable view.
| Peer | AIQ | Value | Momentum | Risk | Sharpe | 1Y Volatility | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO Current ETF | 64/100 | — | 79/100 | 24/100 | 1.9 | 49.57% | Current |
| WEAT Teucrium Wheat Fund | 41/100 | — | 25/100 | 64/100 | 0.46 | 25.00% | USO vs WEAT |
| CANE Teucrium Sugar Fund | 62/100 | 75/100 | 78/100 | 53/100 | 0.85 | 21.88% | USO vs CANE |
| COPX Global X Copper Miners ETF | 42/100 | 35/100 | 27/100 | 45/100 | 0.63 | 47.11% | USO vs COPX |
| CPER United States Copper Index Fund | 50/100 | — | 48/100 | 63/100 | 0.84 | 28.09% | USO vs CPER |
Peer cohort is resolved dynamically from the AlgovestIQ universe taxonomy and Compare relationship graph. Data as of Oct 21, 2026.
About the AIQ Score
Methodology for the current ETF evidence.
The AlgovestIQ AIQ Score combines multiple dimensions of ETF evidence, including momentum, valuation exposure, quality, risk resilience, sentiment context, and timing signals. It is a descriptive research score, not a guarantee of future performance or a personalized recommendation.
View AIQ methodologyFactor Diagnostics
A compact bridge from the AIQ score to the evidence tabs.
Valuation exposure across the fund's holdings.
Quality context inferred from fund exposure and available evidence.
Trend, momentum, volume, and timing confirmation.
Resilience, volatility, beta, drawdown, and tail risk.
News and event pressure around the setup.
Open the return calculator with ETF context while purchase price, shares, dates and fees remain user inputs.
AIQ Component Profile
Compare the five component scores on one consistent 0–100 scale.
Review earnings timing, revisions, news pressure, and prior event reactions in one place.
Open catalystsNo quarterly financial rows in this snapshot.
Checked Oct 22, 2026
Explore factor drivers, conflicts, persistence, and scenario sensitivity in the advanced workspace.
ETF Analytics Snapshot
Current ETF evidence uses fund profile, cost, size, distribution, momentum, and risk fields.
ETF pages use fund-native profile fields for cost, size, liquidity, holdings breadth, NAV, issuer, and launch date.
Market Confirmation
Technicals are summarized first, with the indicator library behind it.
Risk Alignment
Higher resilience is stronger; exposure metrics stay separate.
Continue Researching USO
Open the detailed evidence pages and workflows behind the stock overview read.
Premium Feature
Full AIQ Analysis
AIQ Intelligence
AIQ Pro for USO
Scenario Analysis
AIQ Scenario Builder
Portfolio Implication
Related Links
USO ETF FAQ
Does USO hold physical oil?
No. USO holds WTI crude oil futures contracts and cash collateral; its largest holding is Wti Crude Future Nov26 (44.8% of holdings).
Why doesn't USO track the price of oil?
USO must roll its futures before they expire. In contango each roll buys a pricier contract, which drags on returns; in backwardation the roll helps. Over months these roll effects make USO's return differ from the spot oil price.
What is USO's expense ratio?
USO's expense ratio is 0.86% a year.