AA vs CENX Stock Comparison
Compare AA and CENX across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between AA and CENX?
CENX leads the current stock comparison as Century Aluminum Company, with the clearest separation coming from quality and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Alcoa Corporation vs Century Aluminum Company
CENX leads
CENX leads by 8 AIQ points, primarily on Quality and Momentum, having only recently taken the lead back from AA.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support CENX, the lead recently changed hands, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Alcoa Corporation
Century Aluminum Company
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors CENX over AA, 60 versus 52 as of Sep 11, 2026. CENX's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality and momentum, while AA holds the stronger value profile. CENX also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor CENX today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. CENX lead: Reversed — AA led by 3 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; CENX now leads by 8.
Compare Alcoa Corporation and Century Aluminum Company across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare AA and CENX against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Quality53 vs 74CENX +21
- Momentum36 vs 45CENX +9
- Value71 vs 67AA +4
- Risk Resilience40 vs 40Even
3 of 6 evidence groups favor CENX. CENX’s edge is concentrated in quality and momentum; AA keeps a meaningful value edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-10, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-09.
Largest factor move: Momentum -17
New signals
- BB Lower Band Breach — bullish, volatility, short horizon
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
Largest factor move: Momentum -28
New signals
- EMA Ribbon Compression — neutral, trend, medium horizon
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
CENX's lead narrowed by 1 AIQ points in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — AA and CENX both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
CENX (Century Aluminum Company): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality and momentum.
AA (Alcoa Corporation): the counter-case, on value, valuation.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
CENXCENX on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
AAAA on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
AAAA on the peer-relative Value factor, by 4 points.
Momentum
CENXCENX on the Momentum factor, by 9 points.
Lower downside
CENXCENX carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility.
Analyst upside
CENXCENX on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | AA | CENX | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +46% | +60.4% | CENX has more room |
| Target dispersion | +38.3% | +24.1% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 6 | 3 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor CENX. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | CENX | 52 vs 60 |
| Fundamentals | Even | revenue growth 24.2% vs 15.9%; EPS growth -4.3% vs -26.1%; TTM ROE 19.2% vs 58.6%; gross margin 18.8% vs 19.3%; operating margin 8% vs 14.9% |
| Valuation | AA | Value 71 vs 67 |
| Technicals | CENX | Price vs 50-day -0.6% vs -3.5%; vs 200-day -16.5% vs -10.9% |
| Risk Resilience | Even | Risk Resilience 40 vs 40 |
| Analyst expectations | CENX | Target upside 46% vs 60.4% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of AA and CENX and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 8 points.
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on CENX.
How the comparison changed
119 daily snapshots · May 4 – Sep 10CENX lead: Reversed — AA led by 3 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; CENX now leads by 8.
- Today
- CENX +8
- 52 vs 60
- 7 sessions ago
- CENX +6
- 56 vs 62
- 30 sessions ago
- AA +3
- 59 vs 56
- 90 sessions ago
- CENX +7
- 46 vs 53
The lead changed hands 6 times in this window, most recently on Aug 28 when CENX moved ahead of AA.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 3 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (19.19%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- BB Lower Band Breach — bullish, volatility, short horizon
1 bullish / 2 bearish / 3 neutral, conflicted
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (9.05%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
CENX leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -0.08%, AIQ -5 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved down over the latest session (price -0.7%, AIQ -6 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1AA closes the Quality gap — currently 21 points behind, the largest single contributor to CENX's edge.
- 2AA's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3CENX's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
Split| Metric | AA | CENX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 24.2% | 15.9% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -4.3% | -26.1% |
| Gross margin | 18.8% | 19.3% |
| Operating margin | 8% | 14.9% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 19.2% | 58.6% |
| Debt to equity | 0.3 | 0.34 |
Performance
CENX leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | AA | CENX |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -5.4% | -6.2% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -5.7% | -7.9% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -26.3% | -24.9% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -27.2% | -17.3% |
| Year to date | -9.1% | 13.2% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 50.7% | 104.1% |
Technicals
CENX has the stronger structure| Metric | AA | CENX |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 43.5 | 53.9 |
| ADX (14) | 13.4 | 14.1 |
| Price vs 50-day | -0.6% | -3.5% |
| Price vs 200-day | -16.5% | -10.9% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 45.7% | 42.3% |
Risk
Split| Metric | AA | CENX |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.71 | 1.6 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.99 | 1.35 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.68 | 2.1 |
| Max drawdown | -48.8% | -39.6% |
| Current drawdown | -42.4% | -35.5% |
| Annualized volatility | 56.3% | 66.2% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -5.4% | -6.8% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, AA or CENX?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, CENX is the stronger of the two as of Sep 11, 2026, scoring 60 against AA's 52. The edge comes from quality and momentum. AA is not without a case — it holds the better value profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is AA or CENX the better buy right now?
CENX carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 11, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor CENX over AA?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. CENX leads Quality by 21 points; CENX leads Momentum by 9 points; AA leads Value by 4 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, AA or CENX?
Analyst price targets imply +46% upside for AA and +60.4% for CENX, so the Street currently favors CENX. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, AA or CENX?
AA is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. AA on the peer-relative Value factor, by 4 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, AA or CENX?
AA on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, AA or CENX?
CENX on the Momentum factor, by 9 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, AA or CENX?
CENX is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. CENX carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is AA more profitable than CENX?
CENX leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 18.8% vs 19.3%; operating margin 8% vs 14.9%; ttm roe 19.2% vs 58.6%.
Is CENX's lead over AA getting stronger or weaker?
CENX lead: Reversed — AA led by 3 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; CENX now leads by 8. This is measured from 119 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-05-04 and 2026-09-10. The lead has changed hands 6 times in that window, most recently on 2026-08-28, when CENX moved ahead of AA.
What would change the AA vs CENX verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: AA closes the Quality gap — currently 21 points behind, the largest single contributor to CENX's edge; AA's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; CENX's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about AA and CENX?
AA: 1 bullish / 3 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted. CENX: 1 bullish / 2 bearish / 3 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on AA is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On CENX it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare AA and CENX with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.