ADM vs BTI Stock Comparison
Compare ADM and BTI across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between ADM and BTI?
ADM leads the current stock comparison as Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, with the clearest separation coming from momentum and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company vs British American Tobacco p.l.c.
ADM leads
ADM leads by 3 AIQ points, primarily on Momentum and Risk Resilience, having only recently taken the lead back from BTI.
Fragile: 4 of 6 evidence groups support ADM, the lead recently changed hands, and its signal state is cleanly positive.
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
British American Tobacco p.l.c.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors ADM over BTI, 53 versus 50 as of Sep 6, 2026. ADM's advantage is driven primarily by stronger momentum and risk resilience, while BTI holds the stronger quality profile. ADM also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor ADM today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 3 points. ADM lead: Reversed — BTI led by 1 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; ADM now leads by 3.
Compare Archer-Daniels-Midland Company and British American Tobacco p.l.c. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare ADM and BTI against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum25%71 vs 40ADM +31
- Quality30%35 vs 60BTI +25
- Risk Resilience15%55 vs 45ADM +10
- Value30%55 vs 51ADM +4
4 of 6 evidence groups favor ADM. ADM’s edge is concentrated in momentum and risk resilience; BTI keeps a meaningful quality edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-05, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-04.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
ADM's lead was unchanged in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — ADM and BTI both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
ADM (Archer-Daniels-Midland Company): the stronger current systematic profile, led by momentum and risk resilience.
BTI (British American Tobacco p.l.c.): the counter-case, on quality, fundamentals.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
ADMADM on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value at 30% each.
Growth
ADMADM on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
ADMADM on the peer-relative Value factor, by 4 points.
Momentum
ADMADM on the Momentum factor, by 31 points.
Lower downside
ADMADM on Risk Resilience, by 10 points.
Analyst upside
ADMADM on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | ADM | BTI | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | -6% | -27.7% | ADM has more room |
| Target dispersion | +46.5% | 0% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 3 | 1 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor ADM. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | Even | 53 vs 50 |
| Fundamentals | BTI | TTM ROE 7.7% vs 13.4%; gross margin 6.9% vs 60.2%; operating margin 2.5% vs 37.6% |
| Valuation | ADM | Value 55 vs 51 |
| Technicals | ADM | Price vs 50-day 4.5% vs -6.3%; vs 200-day 17.3% vs -6% |
| Risk Resilience | ADM | Risk Resilience 55 vs 45 |
| Analyst expectations | ADM | Target upside -6% vs -27.7% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of ADM and BTI and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 3 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's signal state is cleanly positive. (supports the conclusion holding)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on ADM.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Apr 24 – Sep 5ADM lead: Reversed — BTI led by 1 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; ADM now leads by 3.
- Today
- ADM +3
- 53 vs 50
- 7 sessions ago
- BTI +1
- 52 vs 53
- 30 sessions ago
- BTI +1
- 49 vs 50
- 90 sessions ago
- BTI +13
- 46 vs 59
The lead changed hands 11 times in this window, most recently on Aug 27 when BTI moved ahead of ADM.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
4 bullish / 0 bearish
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (12.27%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
1 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (0.08%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
BTI is conflicted, so the timing case there is weaker than the score alone suggests.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +0.27%, AIQ 0 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -1.11%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1BTI closes the Momentum gap — currently 31 points behind, the largest single contributor to ADM's edge.
- 2BTI's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3ADM's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
BTI leads on balance| Metric | ADM | BTI |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 10.7% | 0% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 201.6% | 0% |
| Gross margin | 6.9% | 60.2% |
| Operating margin | 2.5% | 37.6% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 7.7% | 13.4% |
| Debt to equity | 0.4 | 0.72 |
Performance
ADM leads 6 of 6 windows| Metric | ADM | BTI |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 3.8% | -1.4% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | 10.5% | -6.7% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 4.6% | -7.3% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 25.5% | -4.4% |
| Year to date | 47.2% | -2.2% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 37.1% | 0.5% |
Technicals
ADM has the stronger structure| Metric | ADM | BTI |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 59.1 | 47.4 |
| ADX (14) | 17.8 | 18.9 |
| Price vs 50-day | 4.5% | -6.3% |
| Price vs 200-day | 17.3% | -6% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 31.2% | 24.2% |
Risk
ADM is the more resilient| Metric | ADM | BTI |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.07 | 0.18 |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.13 | -0.04 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.84 | -0.06 |
| Max drawdown | -12.3% | -17% |
| Current drawdown | -3.1% | -17% |
| Annualized volatility | 27.7% | 25.2% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -2.9% | -2.4% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, ADM or BTI?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, ADM is the stronger of the two as of Sep 6, 2026, scoring 53 against BTI's 50. The edge comes from momentum and risk resilience. BTI is not without a case — it holds the better quality profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is ADM or BTI the better buy right now?
ADM carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 6, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 4 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 3 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor ADM over BTI?
The composite weights Quality at 30%, Value at 30%, Momentum at 25% and Risk Resilience at 15%. ADM leads Momentum by 31 points; BTI leads Quality by 25 points; ADM leads Risk Resilience by 10 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, ADM or BTI?
Analyst price targets imply -6% upside for ADM and -27.7% for BTI, so the Street currently favors ADM. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, ADM or BTI?
ADM is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. ADM on the peer-relative Value factor, by 4 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, ADM or BTI?
ADM on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, ADM or BTI?
ADM on the Momentum factor, by 31 points. Momentum carries 25% of the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, ADM or BTI?
ADM is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. ADM on Risk Resilience, by 10 points. The Risk Resilience factor weights 15% of the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is ADM more profitable than BTI?
BTI leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 6.9% vs 60.2%; operating margin 2.5% vs 37.6%; ttm roe 7.7% vs 13.4%.
Is ADM's lead over BTI getting stronger or weaker?
ADM lead: Reversed — BTI led by 1 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; ADM now leads by 3. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-04-24 and 2026-09-05. The lead has changed hands 11 times in that window, most recently on 2026-08-27, when BTI moved ahead of ADM.
What would change the ADM vs BTI verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: BTI closes the Momentum gap — currently 31 points behind, the largest single contributor to ADM's edge; BTI's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; ADM's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict; a regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about ADM and BTI?
ADM: 4 bullish / 0 bearish. BTI: 1 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on ADM is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On BTI it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare ADM and BTI with others
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality (30%), Value (30%), Momentum (25%) and Risk (15%). Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.