AGG vs BND ETF Comparison
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF vs Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF
AGG leads
AGG leads by 3 AIQ points, primarily on Value.
Fragile: 1 of 4 evidence groups support AGG, and its current signal state is conflicted.
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors AGG over BND, 61 versus 58 as of Sep 2, 2026. AGG's advantage is driven primarily by stronger value. AGG also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 1 of 4 covered evidence groups favor AGG today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 3 points. AGG lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 3 points over 30 sessions.
Compare iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF and Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF across performance, expense ratio, dividend yield, drawdown, volatility and the Algovestiq AIQ Score.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Value30%45 vs 36AGG +9
- Quality30%74 vs 75Even
- Momentum25%43 vs 42Even
- Risk Resilience15%95 vs 95Even
1 of 4 evidence groups favor AGG. AGG’s edge is concentrated in value.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-01, compared against the prior scored session 2026-08-31.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
AGG's lead was unchanged in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — AGG and BND both carry a full feed there.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
AGGAGG on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value at 30% each.
Growth
EvenGrowth figures are not covered for both names.
Value
AGGAGG on the peer-relative Value factor, by 9 points.
Momentum
EvenThe two are level on Momentum.
Lower downside
EvenDownside measures are level or not covered.
Analyst upside
EvenAnalyst targets are level or not covered for both names.
Fund facts, side by side
Two funds tracking overlapping universes are separated by cost and risk far more than by holdings. Those lead here.
| Measure | AGG | BND | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expense ratio | 0.03% | 0.03% | Lower is better — it compounds against you every year you hold. |
| Assets under management | $138.3B | $396.7B | Larger funds generally carry tighter spreads. |
| Holdings | 13,319 | 346 | More holdings means broader diversification, not better returns. |
| Average volume | 9,169,013 | 7,167,345 | Liquidity — matters most if you trade size. |
| Annualized volatility | 4% | 3.9% | Lower is a steadier ride for the same exposure. |
| Max drawdown | -4.1% | -4% | The worst peak-to-trough loss on record for the fund. |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.50 | -1.57 | Return per unit of risk. Higher is better. |
| Beta | 0.11 | 0.10 | Sensitivity to the broad market. Neither direction is better — it depends on the role in your portfolio. |
Where the exposure actually sits
Sector exposure for each fund, ordered by the size of the difference.
Weighted holdings overlap is not available for this pair. Sector exposure above is a related but different measure — it says how much of each fund sits in the same parts of the market, not how much of the same securities they hold.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
1 of 4 covered evidence groups favor AGG. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | Even | 61 vs 58 |
| Fundamentals | Not covered | Not covered |
| Valuation | AGG | Value 45 vs 36 |
| Technicals | Even | Price vs 50-day -1.2% vs -1.2%; vs 200-day -1.8% vs -1.8% |
| Risk Resilience | Even | Risk Resilience 95 vs 95 |
| Analyst expectations | Not covered | Not covered |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of AGG and BND and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 3 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 1 of 4 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on AGG.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Apr 20 – Sep 1AGG lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 3 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- AGG +3
- 61 vs 58
- 7 sessions ago
- AGG +2
- 61 vs 59
- 30 sessions ago
- AGG +3
- 59 vs 56
- 90 sessions ago
- AGG +3
- 68 vs 65
The lead has not changed hands in this window.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 3 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (1.33%)
- 52-Week Low Proximity — bearish, risk, long horizon (0.2%)
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
1 bullish / 3 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (1.31%)
- 52-Week Low Proximity — bearish, risk, long horizon (0.1%)
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
AGG leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -0.02%, AIQ 0 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -0.02%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1BND closes the Value gap — currently 9 points behind, the largest single contributor to AGG's edge.
- 2BND's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3AGG's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 3 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Technicals
Split| Metric | AGG | BND |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 51.4 | 50.7 |
| ADX (14) | 10.6 | 12.5 |
| Price vs 50-day | -1.2% | -1.2% |
| Price vs 200-day | -1.8% | -1.8% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 4.3% | 4.1% |
Risk
Split| Metric | AGG | BND |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.11 | 0.1 |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.5 | -1.57 |
| Sortino ratio | -2.19 | -2.34 |
| Max drawdown | -4.1% | -4% |
| Current drawdown | -3.9% | -3.9% |
| Annualized volatility | 4% | 3.9% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -0.5% | -0.4% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, AGG or BND?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, AGG is the stronger of the two as of Sep 2, 2026, scoring 61 against BND's 58. The edge comes from value. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is AGG or BND the better buy right now?
AGG carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 2, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 1 of 4 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 3 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor AGG over BND?
The composite weights Quality at 30%, Value at 30%, Momentum at 25% and Risk Resilience at 15%. AGG leads Value by 9 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which is better value, AGG or BND?
AGG is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. AGG on the peer-relative Value factor, by 9 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, AGG or BND?
Growth figures are not covered for both names. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, AGG or BND?
The two are level on Momentum. Momentum carries 25% of the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, AGG or BND?
The two are close on downside measures. Downside measures are level or not covered. The Risk Resilience factor weights 15% of the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is AGG more profitable than BND?
Margin data is not comparable for both names in the current snapshot.
Is AGG's lead over BND getting stronger or weaker?
AGG lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 3 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-04-20 and 2026-09-01. The lead has not changed hands in that window.
What would change the AGG vs BND verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: BND closes the Value gap — currently 9 points behind, the largest single contributor to AGG's edge; BND's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; AGG's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 3 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about AGG and BND?
AGG: 1 bullish / 3 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. BND: 1 bullish / 3 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on AGG is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On BND it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare AGG and BND with others
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality (30%), Value (30%), Momentum (25%) and Risk (15%). Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.