AJG vs AON Stock Comparison
Compare AJG and AON across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between AJG and AON?
AON leads the current stock comparison as Aon plc, with the clearest separation coming from quality and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. vs Aon plc
AON leads
AON leads by 2 AIQ points, primarily on Quality and Value, having only recently taken the lead back from AJG.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support AON, the lead recently changed hands, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
Aon plc
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors AON over AJG, 45 versus 43 as of Sep 11, 2026. AON's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality and value, while AJG holds the stronger momentum profile. AON also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor AON today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 2 points. AON lead: Reversed — AJG led by 5 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; AON now leads by 2.
Compare Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. and Aon plc across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare AJG and AON against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Quality65 vs 75AON +10
- Momentum29 vs 19AJG +10
- Value29 vs 35AON +6
- Risk Resilience53 vs 47AJG +6
3 of 6 evidence groups favor AON. AON’s edge is concentrated in quality and value; AJG keeps a meaningful momentum edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-10, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-09.
Largest factor move: Momentum -4
New signals
- Keltner Channel Breakdown — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- EMA Ribbon Compression — neutral, trend, medium horizon
Largest factor move: Momentum -1
No new signals fired.
AON's lead widened by 1 AIQ points in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — AJG and AON both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
AON (Aon plc): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality and value.
AJG (Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.): the counter-case, on momentum, risk resilience, technicals.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
AONAON on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
AONAON on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
AONAON on the peer-relative Value factor, by 6 points.
Momentum
AJGAJG on the Momentum factor, by 10 points.
Lower downside
AJGAJG on Risk Resilience, by 6 points.
Analyst upside
AONAON on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | AJG | AON | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +13% | +28.5% | AON has more room |
| Target dispersion | +32.8% | +24.7% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 10 | 10 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor AON. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | Even | 43 vs 45 |
| Fundamentals | AON | revenue growth -15.9% vs -15.7%; EPS growth -60.6% vs -54.2%; TTM ROE 6.7% vs 42.6%; gross margin 74.6% vs 83.1%; operating margin 17% vs 27.2% |
| Valuation | AON | Value 29 vs 35 |
| Technicals | AJG | Price vs 50-day -5.7% vs -14%; vs 200-day 4% vs -8.6% |
| Risk Resilience | AJG | Risk Resilience 53 vs 47 |
| Analyst expectations | AON | Target upside 13% vs 28.5% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of AJG and AON and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 2 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on AON.
How the comparison changed
119 daily snapshots · May 4 – Sep 10AON lead: Reversed — AJG led by 5 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; AON now leads by 2.
- Today
- AON +2
- 43 vs 45
- 7 sessions ago
- AJG +10
- 55 vs 45
- 30 sessions ago
- AJG +5
- 52 vs 47
- 90 sessions ago
- AON +3
- 60 vs 63
The lead changed hands 8 times in this window, most recently on Sep 9 when AON moved ahead of AJG.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
2 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (8.96%)
- Keltner Channel Breakdown — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
2 bullish / 3 bearish, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (4.53%)
- Keltner Channel Breakdown — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Oversold - Potential Bounce — bullish, momentum, short horizon
AON leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price and the AIQ Score both moved down over the latest session (price -1.23%, AIQ -1 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -1.65%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1AJG closes the Quality gap — currently 10 points behind, the largest single contributor to AON's edge.
- 2AJG's Keltner Channel Breakdown resolves — a bearish volatility rule currently active against it.
- 3AON's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 2 bullish and 3 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
AON leads on balance| Metric | AJG | AON |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -15.9% | -15.7% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -60.6% | -54.2% |
| Gross margin | 74.6% | 83.1% |
| Operating margin | 17% | 27.2% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 6.7% | 42.6% |
| Debt to equity | 0.09 | 1.64 |
Performance
AJG leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | AJG | AON |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -8% | -7% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -4.8% | -11.5% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 10.5% | -8.5% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 16% | -2.9% |
| Year to date | -6% | -12.2% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -18.7% | -16.8% |
Technicals
AJG has the stronger structure| Metric | AJG | AON |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 37.5 | 26.8 |
| ADX (14) | 21.9 | 23.7 |
| Price vs 50-day | -5.7% | -14% |
| Price vs 200-day | 4% | -8.6% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 32.1% | 41.3% |
Risk
AJG is the more resilient| Metric | AJG | AON |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.31 | -0.24 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.63 | -0.64 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.87 | -0.82 |
| Max drawdown | -38.2% | -20.1% |
| Current drawdown | -21.6% | -19.3% |
| Annualized volatility | 31.2% | 27.5% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -2.8% | -2.5% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, AJG or AON?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, AON is the stronger of the two as of Sep 11, 2026, scoring 45 against AJG's 43. The edge comes from quality and value. AJG is not without a case — it holds the better momentum profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is AJG or AON the better buy right now?
AON carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 11, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 2 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor AON over AJG?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. AON leads Quality by 10 points; AJG leads Momentum by 10 points; AON leads Value by 6 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, AJG or AON?
Analyst price targets imply +13% upside for AJG and +28.5% for AON, so the Street currently favors AON. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, AJG or AON?
AON is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. AON on the peer-relative Value factor, by 6 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, AJG or AON?
AON on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, AJG or AON?
AJG on the Momentum factor, by 10 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, AJG or AON?
AJG is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. AJG on Risk Resilience, by 6 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is AJG more profitable than AON?
AON leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 74.6% vs 83.1%; operating margin 17% vs 27.2%; ttm roe 6.7% vs 42.6%.
Is AON's lead over AJG getting stronger or weaker?
AON lead: Reversed — AJG led by 5 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; AON now leads by 2. This is measured from 119 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-05-04 and 2026-09-10. The lead has changed hands 8 times in that window, most recently on 2026-09-09, when AON moved ahead of AJG.
What would change the AJG vs AON verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: AJG closes the Quality gap — currently 10 points behind, the largest single contributor to AON's edge; AJG's Keltner Channel Breakdown resolves — a bearish volatility rule currently active against it; AON's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 2 bullish and 3 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about AJG and AON?
AJG: 2 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. AON: 2 bullish / 3 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on AJG is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On AON it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare AJG and AON with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.