ASTS vs SPIR Stock Comparison
Compare ASTS and SPIR across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between ASTS and SPIR?
SPIR leads the current stock comparison as Spire Global, Inc., with the clearest separation coming from quality and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. vs Spire Global, Inc.
SPIR leads
SPIR leads by 10 AIQ points, primarily on Quality and Risk Resilience, but the lead has narrowed from 26 points over 30 sessions.
Fragile: 4 of 6 evidence groups support SPIR, its lead is narrowing, and its current signal state is conflicted.
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
Spire Global, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors SPIR over ASTS, 36 versus 26 as of Sep 11, 2026. SPIR's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality and risk resilience, while ASTS holds the stronger momentum profile. SPIR also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor SPIR today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the leader's advantage has been narrowing. SPIR lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 26 to 10 points over 30 sessions.
Compare AST SpaceMobile, Inc. and Spire Global, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare ASTS and SPIR against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Quality6 vs 46SPIR +40
- Momentum37 vs 24ASTS +13
- Risk Resilience30 vs 35SPIR +5
- Value34 vs 36Even
4 of 6 evidence groups favor SPIR. SPIR’s edge is concentrated in quality and risk resilience; ASTS keeps a meaningful momentum edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-10, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-09.
Largest factor move: Momentum -1
No new signals fired.
Largest factor move: Risk Resilience +1
New signals
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (0.96%)
- Keltner Channel Breakdown — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
SPIR's lead was unchanged in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — ASTS and SPIR both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
SPIR (Spire Global, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality and risk resilience.
ASTS (AST SpaceMobile, Inc.): the counter-case, on momentum, fundamentals — but at materially higher volatility, 77.9% against 48.8%.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
SPIRSPIR on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
ASTSASTS on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
EvenThe two are level on Value.
Momentum
ASTSASTS on the Momentum factor, by 13 points.
Lower downside
SPIRSPIR on Risk Resilience, by 5 points.
Analyst upside
SPIRSPIR on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | ASTS | SPIR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +62.3% | +81.7% | SPIR has more room |
| Target dispersion | +40.1% | +43.4% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 7 | 3 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor SPIR. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | SPIR | 26 vs 36 |
| Fundamentals | ASTSon balance | revenue growth 113.9% vs 14%; EPS growth -16.7% vs 33.3%; TTM ROE -35.1% vs -75.2%; gross margin -14% vs 37.7%; operating margin -5.2% vs -125.6% — ASTS takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | Even | Value 34 vs 36 |
| Technicals | SPIR | Price vs 50-day -8.7% vs -14.6%; vs 200-day -26.5% vs -16.4% |
| Risk Resilience | SPIR | Risk Resilience 30 vs 35 |
| Analyst expectations | SPIR | Target upside 62.3% vs 81.7% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of ASTS and SPIR and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 10 points.
- The leader's advantage has been narrowing. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has swung materially session to session. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on SPIR.
How the comparison changed
119 daily snapshots · May 4 – Sep 10SPIR lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 26 to 10 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- SPIR +10
- 26 vs 36
- 7 sessions ago
- SPIR +12
- 24 vs 36
- 30 sessions ago
- SPIR +26
- 30 vs 56
- 90 sessions ago
- SPIR +26
- 25 vs 51
The lead has not changed hands in this window.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (24.33%)
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
- ATR Expansion - Breakout Mode — neutral, volatility, short horizon (7.62%)
1 bullish / 4 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (0.96%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- Keltner Channel Breakdown — bearish, volatility, short horizon
SPIR leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -0.08%, AIQ 0 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +1.24%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1ASTS closes the Quality gap — currently 40 points behind, the largest single contributor to SPIR's edge.
- 2ASTS's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3SPIR's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 4 bearish rules at once.
- 4The narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 16 points over 30 sessions, and a further 10-point move would eliminate SPIR's advantage entirely.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
ASTS leads on balance| Metric | ASTS | SPIR |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 113.9% | 14% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -16.7% | 33.3% |
| Gross margin | -14% | 37.7% |
| Operating margin | -5.2% | -125.6% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | -35.1% | -75.2% |
| Debt to equity | 1.58 | 0.05 |
Performance
Split across windows| Metric | ASTS | SPIR |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -4% | -5.3% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -19.4% | -23.5% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -31.4% | -31.1% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -32.1% | 2.3% |
| Year to date | -17.5% | 50.4% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 46.9% | 25.9% |
Technicals
SPIR has the stronger structure| Metric | ASTS | SPIR |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 43.4 | 20 |
| ADX (14) | 12 | 25.9 |
| Price vs 50-day | -8.7% | -14.6% |
| Price vs 200-day | -26.5% | -16.4% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 77.9% | 48.8% |
Risk
SPIR is the more resilient| Metric | ASTS | SPIR |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.75 | 3.49 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.95 | 0.7 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.74 | 1.14 |
| Max drawdown | -60.1% | -58.6% |
| Current drawdown | -55% | -55.7% |
| Annualized volatility | 111.1% | 104.2% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -10.5% | -9.2% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, ASTS or SPIR?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, SPIR is the stronger of the two as of Sep 11, 2026, scoring 36 against ASTS's 26. The edge comes from quality and risk resilience. ASTS is not without a case — it holds the better momentum profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is ASTS or SPIR the better buy right now?
SPIR carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 11, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 4 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the leader's advantage has been narrowing. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor SPIR over ASTS?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. SPIR leads Quality by 40 points; ASTS leads Momentum by 13 points; SPIR leads Risk Resilience by 5 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, ASTS or SPIR?
Analyst price targets imply +62.3% upside for ASTS and +81.7% for SPIR, so the Street currently favors SPIR. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, ASTS or SPIR?
Neither name separates on the peer-relative Value factor. The two are level on Value. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, ASTS or SPIR?
ASTS on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, ASTS or SPIR?
ASTS on the Momentum factor, by 13 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, ASTS or SPIR?
SPIR is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. SPIR on Risk Resilience, by 5 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is ASTS more profitable than SPIR?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin -14% vs 37.7%; operating margin -5.2% vs -125.6%; ttm roe -35.1% vs -75.2%. ASTS leads on two measures and SPIR on one measure, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is SPIR's lead over ASTS getting stronger or weaker?
SPIR lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 26 to 10 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 119 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-05-04 and 2026-09-10. The lead has not changed hands in that window.
What would change the ASTS vs SPIR verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: ASTS closes the Quality gap — currently 40 points behind, the largest single contributor to SPIR's edge; ASTS's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; SPIR's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 4 bearish rules at once; the narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 16 points over 30 sessions, and a further 10-point move would eliminate SPIR's advantage entirely.
What do the current signals say about ASTS and SPIR?
ASTS: 1 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. SPIR: 1 bullish / 4 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on ASTS is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On SPIR it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare ASTS and SPIR with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.