AVA vs AWK Stock Comparison
Compare AVA and AWK across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between AVA and AWK?
AWK leads the current stock comparison as American Water Works Company, Inc., with the clearest separation coming from momentum and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Avista Corporation vs American Water Works Company, Inc.
AWK leads
AWK leads by 1 AIQ points, primarily on Momentum. Wall Street currently favors AVA on target upside.
Fragile: 2 of 6 evidence groups support AWK, and its signal state is cleanly positive.
Avista Corporation
American Water Works Company, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors AWK over AVA, 48 versus 47 as of Sep 11, 2026. AWK's advantage is driven primarily by stronger momentum, while AVA holds the stronger value profile. AWK also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors AVA. 2 of 6 covered evidence groups favor AWK today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 1 points. AWK lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 1 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Avista Corporation and American Water Works Company, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare AVA and AWK against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum32 vs 69AWK +37
- Value64 vs 36AVA +28
- Risk Resilience53 vs 51Even
- Quality41 vs 41Even
2 of 6 evidence groups favor AWK. AWK’s edge is concentrated in momentum; AVA keeps a meaningful value edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-10, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-09.
Largest factor move: Momentum -1
No new signals fired.
Largest factor move: Momentum +3
No new signals fired.
The lead changed hands: AWK moved ahead of AVA in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — AVA and AWK both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
AWK (American Water Works Company, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by momentum.
AVA (Avista Corporation): the counter-case, on value, valuation, analyst expectations.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
AWKAWK on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
AWKAWK on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
AVAAVA on the peer-relative Value factor, by 28 points.
Momentum
AWKAWK on the Momentum factor, by 37 points.
Lower downside
AVAAVA carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility.
Analyst upside
AVAAVA on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors AWK, analyst targets favor AVA. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | AVA | AWK | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +7.6% | -1.3% | AVA has more room |
| Target dispersion | +12.6% | +19.1% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Hold | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 2 | 4 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
2 of 6 covered evidence groups favor AWK. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | Even | 47 vs 48 |
| Fundamentals | AWK | revenue growth -27.5% vs 12.3%; EPS growth -61.6% vs 59.4%; TTM ROE 8.3% vs 10.2%; gross margin 44.2% vs 47.2%; operating margin 18.8% vs 36.9% |
| Valuation | AVA | Value 64 vs 36 |
| Technicals | AWK | Price vs 50-day -7.2% vs 1.6%; vs 200-day -7.8% vs 6.2% |
| Risk Resilience | Even | Risk Resilience 53 vs 51 |
| Analyst expectations | AVA | Target upside 7.6% vs -1.3% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of AVA and AWK and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 1 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader's signal state is cleanly positive. (supports the conclusion holding)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on AWK.
How the comparison changed
119 daily snapshots · May 4 – Sep 10AWK lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 1 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- AWK +1
- 47 vs 48
- 7 sessions ago
- AWK +2
- 47 vs 49
- 30 sessions ago
- AWK +1
- 46 vs 47
- 90 sessions ago
- AVA +4
- 54 vs 50
The lead changed hands 9 times in this window, most recently on Sep 10 when AWK moved ahead of AVA.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (1.62%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
5 bullish / 0 bearish / 1 neutral
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (2.94%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
AVA is conflicted, so the timing case there is weaker than the score alone suggests.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price and the AIQ Score both moved down over the latest session (price -0.92%, AIQ -1 points).
Price is down while the AIQ Score moved up 1 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price -1.54%, AIQ +1 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1AVA closes the Momentum gap — currently 37 points behind, the largest single contributor to AWK's edge.
- 2AVA's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3AWK's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
AWK leads on balance| Metric | AVA | AWK |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -27.5% | 12.3% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -61.6% | 59.4% |
| Gross margin | 44.2% | 47.2% |
| Operating margin | 18.8% | 36.9% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 8.3% | 10.2% |
| Debt to equity | 1.17 | 1.38 |
Performance
AWK leads 5 of 6 windows| Metric | AVA | AWK |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -0.3% | 0.3% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -3.6% | 3.6% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -10.8% | 10.6% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -4.6% | 4.1% |
| Year to date | -3.3% | 7.2% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 2.8% | -0.1% |
Technicals
AWK has the stronger structure| Metric | AVA | AWK |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 37.7 | 57.9 |
| ADX (14) | 31 | 15.4 |
| Price vs 50-day | -7.2% | 1.6% |
| Price vs 200-day | -7.8% | 6.2% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 14.8% | 20% |
Risk
Split| Metric | AVA | AWK |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.16 | -0.46 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.02 | -0.07 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.03 | -0.12 |
| Max drawdown | -13.8% | -16.7% |
| Current drawdown | -13.8% | -3.8% |
| Annualized volatility | 18.8% | 22.5% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -1.8% | -2.2% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, AVA or AWK?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, AWK is the stronger of the two as of Sep 11, 2026, scoring 48 against AVA's 47. The edge comes from momentum. AVA is not without a case — it holds the better value profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is AVA or AWK the better buy right now?
AWK carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 11, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 1 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor AWK over AVA?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. AWK leads Momentum by 37 points; AVA leads Value by 28 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, AVA or AWK?
Analyst price targets imply +7.6% upside for AVA and -1.3% for AWK, so the Street currently favors AVA. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors AWK. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, AVA or AWK?
AVA is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. AVA on the peer-relative Value factor, by 28 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, AVA or AWK?
AWK on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, AVA or AWK?
AWK on the Momentum factor, by 37 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, AVA or AWK?
AVA is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. AVA carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is AVA more profitable than AWK?
AWK leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 44.2% vs 47.2%; operating margin 18.8% vs 36.9%; ttm roe 8.3% vs 10.2%.
Is AWK's lead over AVA getting stronger or weaker?
AWK lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 1 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 119 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-05-04 and 2026-09-10. The lead has changed hands 9 times in that window, most recently on 2026-09-10, when AWK moved ahead of AVA.
What would change the AVA vs AWK verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: AVA closes the Momentum gap — currently 37 points behind, the largest single contributor to AWK's edge; AVA's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; AWK's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about AVA and AWK?
AVA: 1 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. AWK: 5 bullish / 0 bearish / 1 neutral. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on AVA is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On AWK it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare AVA and AWK with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.