BPOP vs CBSH Stock Comparison
BPOP currently leads CBSH in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 64 vs 58. The clearest difference is value, while CBSH has the stronger risk resilience profile.
What is the main difference between BPOP and CBSH?
BPOP leads the current stock comparison as Popular, Inc., with the clearest separation coming from value and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Popular, Inc. vs Commerce Bancshares, Inc.
BPOP leads
BPOP leads by 6 AIQ points, primarily on Value and Momentum, and the lead has widened from 3 points over 30 sessions. Wall Street currently favors CBSH on target upside.
Stable: 4 of 6 evidence groups support BPOP, its lead is widening, and its signal state is cleanly positive.
Popular, Inc.
Commerce Bancshares, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors BPOP over CBSH, 64 versus 58 as of Oct 21, 2026. BPOP's advantage is driven primarily by stronger value and momentum, while CBSH holds the stronger risk resilience profile. BPOP also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors CBSH. 4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor BPOP today, and the comparison is rated Stable on stability. BPOP lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 3 to 6 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Popular, Inc. and Commerce Bancshares, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare BPOP and CBSH against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Risk Resilience63 vs 77CBSH +14
- Value55 vs 42BPOP +13
- Momentum67 vs 55BPOP +12
- Quality72 vs 66BPOP +6
4 of 6 evidence groups favor BPOP. BPOP’s edge is concentrated in value and momentum; CBSH keeps a meaningful risk resilience edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum +10
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 3 active signals are unchanged.
Largest factor move: Momentum +8
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 3 active signals are unchanged.
BPOP's lead was unchanged in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — BPOP and CBSH both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
BPOP (Popular, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by value and momentum.
CBSH (Commerce Bancshares, Inc.): the counter-case, on risk resilience, analyst expectations.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
BPOPBPOP on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
BPOPBPOP on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
BPOPBPOP on the peer-relative Value factor, by 13 points.
Momentum
BPOPBPOP on the Momentum factor, by 12 points.
Lower downside
CBSHCBSH on Risk Resilience, by 14 points.
Analyst upside
CBSHCBSH on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors BPOP, analyst targets favor CBSH. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | BPOP | CBSH | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +16.2% | +19.9% | CBSH has more room |
| Target dispersion | +16.4% | +30.2% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Hold | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 7 | 4 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Dividend growth
| Dividend metric | BPOP | CBSH |
|---|---|---|
| 5Y dividend CAGR | 12.63% | 5.14% |
| 2020 regular DPS | $1.600 | $0.816 |
| 2025 regular DPS | $2.900 | $1.048 |
| Years increased | 5 | 4 |
| No cut in window | Yes | No (1) |
| Cohort rank | #56 | not ranked |
BPOP grew its split-adjusted regular dividend faster over 2020–2025 — 12.63% a year against CBSH's 5.14%. BPOP never reduced its regular dividend in the window; CBSH did in 1 year.
Yield and payout ratio shown elsewhere on this page are current values, not part of the study window.
Split-adjusted regular dividends per share, 2020–2025, excluding special dividends. Research as of Sep 19, 2026.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor BPOP. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | BPOP | 64 vs 58 |
| Fundamentals | BPOPon balance | revenue growth 4.7% vs -14.6%; EPS growth 15.1% vs 14.4%; TTM ROE 15.4% vs 14.4%; gross margin 69% vs 80.2%; operating margin 25.4% vs 35% — BPOP takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | BPOP | Value 55 vs 42 |
| Technicals | BPOP | Price vs 50-day -1.2% vs -3.3%; vs 200-day 5.7% vs 2.3% |
| Risk Resilience | CBSH | Risk Resilience 63 vs 77 |
| Analyst expectations | CBSH | Target upside 16.2% vs 19.9% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of BPOP and CBSH and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion rests on a wide gap and broad agreement. It is unlikely to turn on a single session.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 6 points.
- The leader's advantage has been widening. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader's signal state is cleanly positive. (supports the conclusion holding)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on BPOP.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20BPOP lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 3 to 6 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- BPOP +6
- 64 vs 58
- 7 sessions ago
- BPOP +3
- 58 vs 55
- 30 sessions ago
- BPOP +3
- 55 vs 52
- 90 sessions ago
- BPOP +4
- 64 vs 60
The lead changed hands 5 times in this window, most recently on Sep 16 when BPOP moved ahead of CBSH.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
BPOP and CBSH carry the same 3 signals, so the signals do not separate them: Bollinger Band Squeeze, Golden Cross Active, MACD Bullish Crossover.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +0.87%, AIQ +2 points).
Price is down while the AIQ Score moved up 2 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price -0.79%, AIQ +2 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1CBSH closes the Value gap — currently 13 points behind, the largest single contributor to BPOP's edge.
- 2CBSH's Bollinger Band Squeeze turns directional — it is neutral today and would confirm a change in trend.
- 3BPOP's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
BPOP leads on balance| Metric | BPOP | CBSH |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 4.7% | -14.6% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 15.1% | 14.4% |
| Gross margin | 69% | 80.2% |
| Operating margin | 25.4% | 35% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 15.4% | 14.4% |
| Debt to equity | 0.25 | 0.56 |
Performance
BPOP leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | BPOP | CBSH |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 3.2% | 2.4% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | 0.4% | -0.2% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -7.5% | -5.3% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 8.2% | 9.9% |
| Year to date | 29.2% | 6.2% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 41.8% | 7.5% |
Technicals
BPOP has the stronger structure| Metric | BPOP | CBSH |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 69 | 57.3 |
| ADX (14) | 33.6 | 27.1 |
| Price vs 50-day | -1.2% | -3.3% |
| Price vs 200-day | 5.7% | 2.3% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 13.9% | 15% |
Risk
CBSH is the more resilient| Metric | BPOP | CBSH |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.61 | 0.25 |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.39 | 0.34 |
| Sortino ratio | 2.12 | 0.49 |
| Max drawdown | -12.7% | -14% |
| Current drawdown | -9.6% | -7.9% |
| Annualized volatility | 22.8% | 18.2% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -2.1% | -1.8% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, BPOP or CBSH?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, BPOP is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 64 against CBSH's 58. The edge comes from value and momentum. CBSH is not without a case — it holds the better risk resilience profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is BPOP or CBSH the better buy right now?
BPOP carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Stable — 4 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Stable rating means the gap is wide and the evidence is broad, so the conclusion is unlikely to turn on a single session.
Why does the AIQ Score favor BPOP over CBSH?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. CBSH leads Risk Resilience by 14 points; BPOP leads Value by 13 points; BPOP leads Momentum by 12 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, BPOP or CBSH?
Analyst price targets imply +16.2% upside for BPOP and +19.9% for CBSH, so the Street currently favors CBSH. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors BPOP. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, BPOP or CBSH?
BPOP is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. BPOP on the peer-relative Value factor, by 13 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, BPOP or CBSH?
BPOP on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, BPOP or CBSH?
BPOP on the Momentum factor, by 12 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, BPOP or CBSH?
CBSH is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. CBSH on Risk Resilience, by 14 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is BPOP more profitable than CBSH?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 69% vs 80.2%; operating margin 25.4% vs 35%; ttm roe 15.4% vs 14.4%. BPOP leads on one measure and CBSH on two measures, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is BPOP's lead over CBSH getting stronger or weaker?
BPOP lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 3 to 6 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has changed hands 5 times in that window, most recently on 2026-09-16, when BPOP moved ahead of CBSH.
What would change the BPOP vs CBSH verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: CBSH closes the Value gap — currently 13 points behind, the largest single contributor to BPOP's edge; CBSH's Bollinger Band Squeeze turns directional — it is neutral today and would confirm a change in trend; BPOP's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about BPOP and CBSH?
BPOP: 2 bullish / 0 bearish / 1 neutral. CBSH: 2 bullish / 0 bearish / 1 neutral. The most decision-relevant rule on BPOP is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On CBSH it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare BPOP and CBSH with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.