BPOP vs CNOB Stock Comparison
BPOP currently leads CNOB in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 64 vs 62. The clearest difference is quality, while CNOB has the stronger risk resilience profile.
What is the main difference between BPOP and CNOB?
BPOP leads the current stock comparison as Popular, Inc., with the clearest separation coming from quality and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Popular, Inc. vs ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc.
BPOP leads
BPOP leads by 2 AIQ points, primarily on Quality and Momentum, having only recently taken the lead back from CNOB.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support BPOP, the lead recently changed hands, and its signal state is cleanly positive.
Popular, Inc.
ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors BPOP over CNOB, 64 versus 62 as of Oct 21, 2026. BPOP's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality and momentum, while CNOB holds the stronger risk resilience profile. BPOP also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor BPOP today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 2 points. BPOP lead: Reversed — CNOB led by 1 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; BPOP now leads by 2.
Compare Popular, Inc. and ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare BPOP and CNOB against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Risk Resilience63 vs 83CNOB +20
- Quality72 vs 60BPOP +12
- Momentum67 vs 58BPOP +9
- Value55 vs 57Even
3 of 6 evidence groups favor BPOP. BPOP’s edge is concentrated in quality and momentum; CNOB keeps a meaningful risk resilience edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum +10
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 3 active signals are unchanged.
Largest factor move: Momentum +10
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 3 active signals are unchanged.
BPOP's lead was unchanged in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — BPOP and CNOB both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
BPOP (Popular, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality and momentum.
CNOB (ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc.): the counter-case, on risk resilience — but at materially higher volatility, 20.1% against 13.9%.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
BPOPBPOP on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
BPOPBPOP on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
EvenThe two are level on Value.
Momentum
BPOPBPOP on the Momentum factor, by 9 points.
Lower downside
CNOBCNOB on Risk Resilience, by 20 points.
Analyst upside
BPOPBPOP on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | BPOP | CNOB | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +16.2% | +10.1% | BPOP has more room |
| Target dispersion | +16.4% | 0% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 7 | 1 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Dividend growth
| Dividend metric | BPOP | CNOB |
|---|---|---|
| 5Y dividend CAGR | 12.63% | 14.87% |
| 2020 regular DPS | $1.600 | $0.360 |
| 2025 regular DPS | $2.900 | $0.720 |
| Years increased | 5 | 5 |
| No cut in window | Yes | Yes |
| Cohort rank | #56 | #35 |
CNOB grew its split-adjusted regular dividend faster over 2020–2025 — 14.87% a year against BPOP's 12.63%. Neither company reduced its regular dividend in any year of the window.
Yield and payout ratio shown elsewhere on this page are current values, not part of the study window.
Split-adjusted regular dividends per share, 2020–2025, excluding special dividends. Research as of Sep 19, 2026.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor BPOP. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | Even | 64 vs 62 |
| Fundamentals | BPOP | revenue growth 4.7% vs -84.3%; EPS growth 15.1% vs 6.7%; TTM ROE 15.4% vs 10.1%; gross margin 69% vs 45.3%; operating margin 25.4% vs 18.1% |
| Valuation | Even | Value 55 vs 57 |
| Technicals | BPOP | Price vs 50-day -1.2% vs -1.6%; vs 200-day 5.7% vs 3.8% |
| Risk Resilience | CNOB | Risk Resilience 63 vs 83 |
| Analyst expectations | BPOP | Target upside 16.2% vs 10.1% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of BPOP and CNOB and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 2 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader's signal state is cleanly positive. (supports the conclusion holding)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on BPOP.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20BPOP lead: Reversed — CNOB led by 1 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; BPOP now leads by 2.
- Today
- BPOP +2
- 64 vs 62
- 7 sessions ago
- Level
- 58 vs 58
- 30 sessions ago
- CNOB +1
- 55 vs 56
- 90 sessions ago
- BPOP +3
- 64 vs 61
The lead changed hands 4 times in this window, most recently on Oct 8 when CNOB moved ahead of BPOP.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
BPOP and CNOB carry the same 3 signals, so the signals do not separate them: Bollinger Band Squeeze, Golden Cross Active, MACD Bullish Crossover.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +0.87%, AIQ +2 points).
Price is down while the AIQ Score moved up 2 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price -0.23%, AIQ +2 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1CNOB closes the Quality gap — currently 12 points behind, the largest single contributor to BPOP's edge.
- 2CNOB's Bollinger Band Squeeze turns directional — it is neutral today and would confirm a change in trend.
- 3BPOP's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
BPOP leads on balance| Metric | BPOP | CNOB |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 4.7% | -84.3% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 15.1% | 6.7% |
| Gross margin | 69% | 45.3% |
| Operating margin | 25.4% | 18.1% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 15.4% | 10.1% |
| Debt to equity | 0.25 | 0.02 |
Performance
BPOP leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | BPOP | CNOB |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 3.2% | 3% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | 0.4% | -0.8% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -7.5% | -6.2% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 8.2% | 10.3% |
| Year to date | 29.2% | 18% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 41.8% | 32.9% |
Technicals
BPOP has the stronger structure| Metric | BPOP | CNOB |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 69 | 60.7 |
| ADX (14) | 33.6 | 32.9 |
| Price vs 50-day | -1.2% | -1.6% |
| Price vs 200-day | 5.7% | 3.8% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 13.9% | 20.1% |
Risk
CNOB is the more resilient| Metric | BPOP | CNOB |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.61 | 0.73 |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.39 | 1.08 |
| Sortino ratio | 2.12 | 1.84 |
| Max drawdown | -12.7% | -12.4% |
| Current drawdown | -9.6% | -9.3% |
| Annualized volatility | 22.8% | 25% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -2.1% | -2.2% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, BPOP or CNOB?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, BPOP is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 64 against CNOB's 62. The edge comes from quality and momentum. CNOB is not without a case — it holds the better risk resilience profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is BPOP or CNOB the better buy right now?
BPOP carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 2 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor BPOP over CNOB?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. CNOB leads Risk Resilience by 20 points; BPOP leads Quality by 12 points; BPOP leads Momentum by 9 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, BPOP or CNOB?
Analyst price targets imply +16.2% upside for BPOP and +10.1% for CNOB, so the Street currently favors BPOP. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, BPOP or CNOB?
Neither name separates on the peer-relative Value factor. The two are level on Value. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, BPOP or CNOB?
BPOP on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, BPOP or CNOB?
BPOP on the Momentum factor, by 9 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, BPOP or CNOB?
CNOB is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. CNOB on Risk Resilience, by 20 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is BPOP more profitable than CNOB?
BPOP leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 69% vs 45.3%; operating margin 25.4% vs 18.1%; ttm roe 15.4% vs 10.1%.
Is BPOP's lead over CNOB getting stronger or weaker?
BPOP lead: Reversed — CNOB led by 1 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; BPOP now leads by 2. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has changed hands 4 times in that window, most recently on 2026-10-08, when CNOB moved ahead of BPOP.
What would change the BPOP vs CNOB verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: CNOB closes the Quality gap — currently 12 points behind, the largest single contributor to BPOP's edge; CNOB's Bollinger Band Squeeze turns directional — it is neutral today and would confirm a change in trend; BPOP's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about BPOP and CNOB?
BPOP: 2 bullish / 0 bearish / 1 neutral. CNOB: 2 bullish / 0 bearish / 1 neutral. The most decision-relevant rule on BPOP is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On CNOB it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare BPOP and CNOB with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.