CAT vs TREX Stock Comparison
Compare CAT and TREX across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between CAT and TREX?
TREX leads the current stock comparison as Trex Company, Inc., with the clearest separation coming from quality and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Caterpillar Inc. vs Trex Company, Inc.
TREX leads
TREX leads by 3 AIQ points, primarily on Quality and Value, but the lead has narrowed from 10 points over 30 sessions. Wall Street currently favors CAT on target upside.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support TREX, its lead is narrowing, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Caterpillar Inc.
Trex Company, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors TREX over CAT, 46 versus 43 as of Sep 6, 2026. TREX's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality and value. TREX also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors CAT. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TREX today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 3 points. TREX lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 10 to 3 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Caterpillar Inc. and Trex Company, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare CAT and TREX against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Quality30%55 vs 60TREX +5
- Value30%38 vs 43TREX +5
- Risk Resilience15%45 vs 47Even
- Momentum25%35 vs 34Even
3 of 6 evidence groups favor TREX. TREX’s edge is concentrated in quality and value.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-05, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-04.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
TREX's lead was unchanged in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — CAT and TREX both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
TREX (Trex Company, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality and value.
CAT (Caterpillar Inc.): the counter-case, on analyst expectations.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
TREXTREX on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value at 30% each.
Growth
CATCAT on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
TREXTREX on the peer-relative Value factor, by 5 points.
Momentum
EvenThe two are level on Momentum.
Lower downside
CATCAT carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility.
Analyst upside
CATCAT on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors TREX, analyst targets favor CAT. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | CAT | TREX | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +17.8% | +10.8% | CAT has more room |
| Target dispersion | +82.9% | +49.4% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Hold | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 12 | 9 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TREX. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | Even | 43 vs 46 |
| Fundamentals | TREXon balance | revenue growth 18% vs 21.7%; EPS growth 41.8% vs 3.4%; TTM ROE 54.1% vs 17.4%; gross margin 33.9% vs 38.2%; operating margin 17.5% vs 20.2% — TREX takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | TREX | Value 38 vs 43 |
| Technicals | TREX | Price vs 50-day -6.7% vs -1.6%; vs 200-day 5.3% vs 10.9% |
| Risk Resilience | Even | Risk Resilience 45 vs 47 |
| Analyst expectations | CAT | Target upside 17.8% vs 10.8% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of CAT and TREX and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 3 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's advantage has been narrowing. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on TREX.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Apr 24 – Sep 5TREX lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 10 to 3 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- TREX +3
- 43 vs 46
- 7 sessions ago
- TREX +4
- 42 vs 46
- 30 sessions ago
- TREX +10
- 48 vs 58
- 90 sessions ago
- TREX +6
- 49 vs 55
The lead changed hands once in this window, most recently on May 20 when TREX moved ahead of CAT.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
2 bullish / 0 bearish
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (12.87%)
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
1 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (12.74%)
- ATR Expansion - Breakout Mode — neutral, volatility, short horizon (3.94%)
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
TREX leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +1.72%, AIQ 0 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +4.44%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1CAT closes the Quality gap — currently 5 points behind, the largest single contributor to TREX's edge.
- 2CAT generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish or Uptrend Structure Active.
- 3TREX's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4The narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 7 points over 30 sessions, and a further 3-point move would eliminate TREX's advantage entirely.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
TREX leads on balance| Metric | CAT | TREX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 18% | 21.7% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 41.8% | 3.4% |
| Gross margin | 33.9% | 38.2% |
| Operating margin | 17.5% | 20.2% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 54.1% | 17.4% |
| Debt to equity | 2.33 | 0.29 |
Performance
CAT leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | CAT | TREX |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 1.7% | -0.3% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -3.4% | -7.2% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -10% | 15.1% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 19.5% | 21.6% |
| Year to date | 42.1% | 30.1% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 96.1% | -23.6% |
Technicals
TREX has the stronger structure| Metric | CAT | TREX |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 31.6 | 34 |
| ADX (14) | 11.5 | 17.9 |
| Price vs 50-day | -6.7% | -1.6% |
| Price vs 200-day | 5.3% | 10.9% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 29.6% | 32% |
Risk
Split| Metric | CAT | TREX |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.74 | 1.48 |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.77 | -0.42 |
| Sortino ratio | 2.87 | -0.47 |
| Max drawdown | -26.8% | -53.4% |
| Current drawdown | -23.6% | -29.4% |
| Annualized volatility | 39.7% | 50.6% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -3.8% | -3.5% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, CAT or TREX?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, TREX is the stronger of the two as of Sep 6, 2026, scoring 46 against CAT's 43. The edge comes from quality and value. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is CAT or TREX the better buy right now?
TREX carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 6, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 3 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor TREX over CAT?
The composite weights Quality at 30%, Value at 30%, Momentum at 25% and Risk Resilience at 15%. TREX leads Quality by 5 points; TREX leads Value by 5 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, CAT or TREX?
Analyst price targets imply +17.8% upside for CAT and +10.8% for TREX, so the Street currently favors CAT. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors TREX. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, CAT or TREX?
TREX is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. TREX on the peer-relative Value factor, by 5 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, CAT or TREX?
CAT on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, CAT or TREX?
The two are level on Momentum. Momentum carries 25% of the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, CAT or TREX?
CAT is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. CAT carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility. The Risk Resilience factor weights 15% of the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is CAT more profitable than TREX?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 33.9% vs 38.2%; operating margin 17.5% vs 20.2%; ttm roe 54.1% vs 17.4%. CAT leads on one measure and TREX on two measures, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is TREX's lead over CAT getting stronger or weaker?
TREX lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 10 to 3 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-04-24 and 2026-09-05. The lead has changed hands once in that window, most recently on 2026-05-20, when TREX moved ahead of CAT.
What would change the CAT vs TREX verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: CAT closes the Quality gap — currently 5 points behind, the largest single contributor to TREX's edge; CAT generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish or Uptrend Structure Active; TREX's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; the narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 7 points over 30 sessions, and a further 3-point move would eliminate TREX's advantage entirely.
What do the current signals say about CAT and TREX?
CAT: 2 bullish / 0 bearish. TREX: 1 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on CAT is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On TREX it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare CAT and TREX with others
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality (30%), Value (30%), Momentum (25%) and Risk (15%). Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.